EUR/USD – 1H.
On October 26, the EUR/USD pair fell to the corrective level of 50.0% (1.1812) on the hourly chart, rebounded from it, turned in favor of the European currency, and began a new growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1859). I also built a triangle that shows the range in which the pair is currently moving. Most likely, the quotes will now rush to the upper border of this triangle. There was no information background on Monday. There was no important or interesting news about the euro or the dollar. The US currency once again failed to continue the seemingly begun process of falling due to the elections in America. Traders still fear the results of the vote and prefer to first find out the name of the new US President, and only then trade in accordance with this information. Thus, the more important picture is the 4-hour chart, where the naked eye can see a long sideways movement inside the side corridor. In the short term, you can trade on an hourly schedule, however, do not forget for a second about the side corridor in the longer term. Today, traders will again be on a "dry ration", as nothing interesting is likely to happen in the European Union and America today.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the graphical picture remains very boring, as the pair continues to trade inside the side corridor. There was no rebound of the pair's quotes from the upper border of the side corridor, so there was no signal to sell. Fixing the pair's rate above the corridor will increase the probability of further growth in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027). However, I do not expect such development yet.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair quotes have returned to the corrective level of 261.8% (1.1825), which is not a strong level, and are now trading near it. However, on the 4-hour chart, the pair remains inside the side corridor, which is the most important thing right now.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has completed a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which now allows us to count on further growth of the euro currency, which may be strong, but in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On October 26, the European Union and America did not have a single economic report or other interesting events. Thus, traders were deprived of information background on this day.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
US - changes in the volume of orders for durable goods (12:30 GMT).
On October 27, the calendars of economic events in the European Union and the United States contain one report for two. Under certain conditions, the data in this report can affect the mood of traders.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report was rather boring and uninformative. The most important category of non-commercial traders increased only 1 thousand long contracts and 700 short contracts during the reporting week. Thus, changes in their mood can be described as minimal and insignificant. Over the past few weeks, changes in this category are generally quite weak. Only on October 6, a fairly strong drop in the number of long contracts was registered. However, it is the lack of serious changes among speculators that reflects what has been happening on the market in recent months. Namely, trade in the side corridor. We are less interested in other categories of traders, but in any case, there are no major changes that deserve attention.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend selling the euro with the targets of 1.1812 and 1.1765, if there is a rebound from the upper border of the triangle on the hourly chart. The second goal will be available if the pair closes under the triangle. Purchases of the pair will now be possible with the target level of 76.4% (1.1917) if the quotes close above the triangle.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency not for speculative profit, but for current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
