The wave counting of the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD currency pair remains the same. The assumed wave b took a longer form due to the decline at the end of last week, and this is very bad for the current counting, since wave b has already turned out to be too deep compared to wave a. Therefore, a further decline will mean that the corrective wave b may end near the low of wave a, or that the entire downward section of the trend may resume its construction, which will significantly complicate the entire wave counting. So far, I consider this scenario as a backup, but the decline in the quotes of the pair on Thursday, Friday, and Monday makes us treat it more carefully. Interestingly, the US currency could not increase for a long time, but in the last few days, it grew by leaps and bounds without any catalyst. But on Tuesday, the decline stopped, which preserves the chances of resuming the increase of the pair within the framework of wave c.
There was no news background for the EUR/USD pair on Tuesday. For the second day in a row, the markets show their reluctance to trade the Euro/Dollar instrument on the eve of an important Fed meeting. From my point of view, the wave counting is of great importance for the instrument now, which assumes an upward turn already at the current levels. Thus, tomorrow's Fed meeting can either help this option to be fulfilled, or it will completely break it. In the current situation, it would be reasonable to find out what are the expectations among experts regarding possible decisions of the Federal Reserve System. But, unfortunately, even here it is impossible to get a clear answer to the question of what to expect from the Fed tomorrow.
Analysts now disagree on whether the Fed will announce the curtailment of the QE program or will prefer to wait until November or December. The latest reports in the US were not the strongest, especially with regard to US inflation and Nonfarm Payrolls. On the other hand, many members of the Fed's board have already stated that the time has come when it is necessary to curtail economic stimulus programs. Thus, the chances, no matter how banal it may sound, are 50-50. Therefore, there may well be a surprise tomorrow. So, a lot will depend on the will of chance. The best option would probably be the most restrained rhetoric of Jerome Powell and the absence of important decisions. This would allow the markets to reduce the demand for the dollar, which is required for the current wave count.
Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the downward wave b may be completed soon. Therefore, I still expect an increase in the quotes of the instrument and advise buying with targets located near the 1.1965 and 1.2036 marks, which corresponds to 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels, for each MACD signal "up." As a confirmation of this assumption, we can wait for a new successful attempt to break through the 23.6% Fibonacci level or an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 0.0% Fibonacci level. It is best to do this since wave b can take on an even more complex form and even the entire wave layout may change if the decline continues.
The wave counting of the higher scale looks quite convincing. We see three three-wave sections of the trend, which are approximately the same in size. However, the last section of the trend quite unexpectedly took a more complex form, but it still ended in the same place as the previous three-wave section.
