Analysis of Friday's deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair traded rather weakly on Friday. It passed 46 points from the high to the low of the day. Nevertheless, the movement was still there, so it had to be worked out. However, before we start analyzing trading signals, it should be noted that the pair has completed the downward trend, but at the same time cannot start a new upward trend. Recall that a few days ago the quotes crossed the downward trend line, which is a signal to change the trend. However, so far, the price spends most of the time around the level of 1.1704. Despite the fact that this week the results of the Federal Reserve meeting took place, the pair's rate remained practically unchanged, which is clearly seen in the chart above. By and large, the pair spent the entirety of last week in a horizontal channel. Now with regard to macroeconomic statistics and the foundation. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was set to speak on Friday, but this time he did not tell the markets anything important. Basically, it was hard to expect anything new from him after his press conference, which took place just two days ago.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The technical picture on the 5-minute timeframe was very good on Friday. Despite the fact that the pair was trading in a very limited range all week, some interesting signals were formed on the last day of the week. The first, unfortunately, turned out to be very fuzzy. It took almost the entire European session to form it. Nevertheless, when it formed (consolidation below the level of 1.1735), the price went down and almost perfectly reached the level of 1.1704, from which a rebound followed, which means that it was necessary to manually close short positions. The profit on this trade was about 20 points. Since there was a rebound from the level of 1.1704, it was a buy signal. As a result, the pair did not go up more than 15 points, nevertheless, about 10 points of profit could be taken, since the signal was not false. The checkmark in the chart above marks the time when Powell's talk began. As you can see, the markets did not react at that time, except for the reaction of a movement equal to 10 points.
How to trade on Monday:
The EUR/USD pair is trying to form an upward trend on the 30-minute timeframe. Therefore, it is possible to consider buy signals from the MACD indicator, but we remind you that they should be formed as close to the zero level as possible. At the moment, the indicator is not close. The key levels for September 27 on the 5-minute timeframe are 1.1685, 1.1704, 1.1735, 1.1750. Take Profit, as before, is set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss - to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 15 points. At the 5M TF, the target can be the nearest level if it is not too close or too far away. If it is, then you should act according to the situation or work according to Take Profit. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech on Monday, but no further major events are scheduled for that day. Therefore, you should be extremely cautious during Lagarde's speech, but at the same time we do not believe that Lagarde will mention anything new and important. Most likely, the day will pass in the most relaxed movements.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the GBP/USD review.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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