All the attention of the markets today will be focused on the publication of data from the US labor market, which may push the Fed to raise interest rates earlier at the beginning of next 2022.
The topic of the new COVID-19 strain of Omicron, which has made so much noise in the markets, pushed important economic data coming out into the background this week, and also somewhat overshadowed until recently the main question about the prospects for raising interest rates by the Fed.
On Wednesday, investors hardly reacted to the publication of somewhat more optimistic data on the number of new jobs from ADP, which showed employment growth of 534,000 against the forecast of 525,000. On Thursday, the values of the number of applications for unemployment benefits were presented. Despite the fact that the figures turned out to be higher than the previous week's 194,000, having come out in the amount of 222,000, they still turned out to be in line with the current trend of a decrease in the total number of applications, which supports hopes that the official employment data published today from the Ministry of Labor may be higher than the median forecast.
According to the consensus forecast, the US economy received 550,000 new jobs in November against the October value of 531,000. The unemployment rate should drop from 4.6% to 4.5%.
How will the whole market and the US dollar, in particular, react to the data above expectations?
We believe that if the figures for the number of new jobs turn out to be significantly higher than the consensus forecast, this will lead to the traditional local strengthening of the US currency. However, we should not expect a resumption of its global growth yet, since it is still not clear when we should expect the start of an increase in interest rates. Definitely, it can be argued that positive news will lead to an increase in demand for risky assets after the strong sales of recent days. Moreover, this dynamic will be not only in the States, but also in Europe, and on Monday, it can be expected in the Asian trading.
An important supporting factor for positive mood in the markets may be the absence of any noticeably negative news about Omicron. So far, investors have completely played back its appearance, but now they need evidence of either its extremely high danger or not. Therefore, while scientists are researching a new strain, a pullback can be observed in the markets up after the recent collapse. Now, the main drivers in the market will be important economic data, namely the expectation of an earlier increase in the Fed's interest rates.
In any case, we consider this scenario as a result of the release today of strong values for the number of new jobs in America.
The USD/CAD pair is responding to strong US employment data with the growth of the US dollar above 1.2835, namely to the level of 1.2090. At the same time, if the figures are below the consensus forecast, the pair may decline to the level of 1.2730.
Spot gold can also react energetically to good news from America by declining to the level of 1758.00. But if negative news appears, it can rise to 1786.75.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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