30.11.2022 06:43 PM
USD/JPY: upside scenario to be activated

The USD/JPY pair jumped higher after invalidating a deeper drop. Failing to make a new lower low announced exhausted sellers and signaled a new leg higher. It's trading at 139.35 at the time of writing. An upside continuation needs confirmation.

Fundamentally, the JPY lost significant ground versus its rivals after the Japanese Unemployment Rate remained at 2.6% even if the traders expected a potential drop to 2.5%, and after the Retail Sales rose only by 4.3% versus 5.0% growth expected. Today, the Japanese economic data came in worse than expected as well. Housing Starts dropped by 1.8% versus the 1.1% expected, while Prelim Industrial Production reported a 2.6% drop versus the 1.8% drop expected.

The greenback took the lead as the Prelim GDP, Pending Home Sales, and the JOLTS Job Openings came in better than expected earlier today. Tomorrow, Japan is to release the Consumer Confidence, Final Manufacturing PMI, and Capital Spending, while the US is to release high-impact data like Core PCE Price Index and the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Better than expected US data could lift the pair.

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The USD/JPY pair retested 138.45 and now it has jumped above the downtrend line and it is challenging the 139.59 static resistance. It has registered only a false breakout above this obstacle and through the weekly pivot point (139.81).

As you can see on the H1 chart, the rate found support at 137.65. The pair has consolidated around 138.45 and now it is trying to escape from the current channel.

USD/JPY Forecast!

Validating its breakout above the downtrend line and making a new higher high, a bullish closure above 139.89 today's high opens the door for more gains ahead. This scenario suggests a buying signal.

Ralph Shedler,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
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