In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the 1.0549 level and recommended making decisions on entering the market from it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened there. In the first half of the day, fairly versatile data on Germany limited the upward potential of the euro. An unsuccessful attempt to grow above 1.0549 and a false breakdown led to a sell signal. At the time of writing, the pair has gone down more than 25 points. While trading will be conducted below 1.0549, we can count on a return to the area of 1.0497. The technical picture has not changed in any way for the second half of the day. Only the nearest support levels have undergone a slight correction. And what were the entry points for the pound?

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

During the American session, data on the consumer expectations index and the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan are released, which are unlikely to provide significant support to the dollar. Therefore, buyers of the euro have every chance of a second attempt to grow above 1.0549. In the case of strong statistics on the growth rate of new home sales in the United States, which is unlikely in the context of rising interest rates, the pressure on the pair will return. Only the formation of a false breakdown at 1.0497 there is a new support level, forms a signal to open long positions to return and update 1.0549. A breakout and a top-down test of this range will hit sellers' stop orders, which will give a signal to enter long positions with the possibility of building a larger uptrend and updating the maximum of 1.0603, where I recommend fixing the profits. If EUR/USD declines and there are no buyers at 1.0497, the pressure on the euro will increase. This will lead to new problems for buyers and a larger downward correction. In this case, I advise you not to rush into the market: the best option for opening long positions will be a false breakdown in the support area of 1.0448. I advise buying EUR/USD immediately for a rebound only from the level of 1.0388, or even lower – around 1.0321 with the aim of an upward correction of 30-35 points within a day.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

Sellers showed themselves after weak statistics, and while trading will be conducted below 1.0549, we can count on a further decline in the pair. At a minimum, the bears will hope for an update of the daily local lows. If the US data disappoints, another upward leap to 1.0549 is not excluded. Only the formation of a false breakdown at this level will give an additional signal to open short positions with the prospect of returning to the new support of 1.0497, formed at the end of the first half of the day. A lot depends on this level: if the bulls manage to hold it, there you can safely draw the lower boundary of the new ascending channel, which opens up good prospects for further growth of the euro. A breakdown and consolidation below this range, together with strong US data, as well as a reverse test from the bottom up of 1.0497, will lead to an additional sell signal with the demolition of buyers' stop orders and a larger movement of the pair down to the 1.0448 area. A breakthrough and consolidation below 1.0448 is a direct road to 1.0388, where I recommend completely exiting sales. In the case of an upward movement of EUR/USD during the American session, as well as the absence of bears at 1.0546, I advise you to postpone short positions to the more attractive level of 1.0603. In the formation of a false breakdown, there will be a new starting point for the downward correction of the pair. You can sell EUR/USD immediately on a rebound from the maximum of 1.0640, or even higher – around 1.0663 with the aim of a downward correction of 30-35 points.

The COT report (Commitment of Traders) for June 14 recorded a sharp reduction in long positions and an increase in short positions, which led to the formation of a negative delta, indicating the formation of bearish sentiment. The meeting of the European Central Bank was in the past, and all the emphasis was on the decision of the Federal Reserve System, which raised interest rates immediately by 0.75%, declaring the continuation of a tough fight against inflation in the United States. The fact that the authorities continue to pursue a tight monetary policy forces traders to get rid of risky assets and buy the dollar, which leads to its strengthening. Most likely, this trend will continue, since no one is going to abandon measures to combat inflation through an increase in interest rates yet. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions decreased by 23,262, to the level of 206,986, while short non-commercial positions jumped by 33,299, to the level of 213,004. Despite the low exchange rate of the euro, this does not make it particularly attractive, since traders choose the US dollar. At the end of the week, the total non-commercial net position turned negative and decreased from 50,543 to -6,018. The weekly closing price dropped to 1.0481 against 1.0710.

Signals of indicators:Moving averagesTrading is conducted around 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates market uncertainty.Note. The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.Bollinger BandsIn the case of a decline, the lower limit of the indicator around 1.0495 will act as support.Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions use the futures market for speculative purposes and to meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.