Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair
GBP/USD tested 1.2095 on Tuesday. At that time, the MACD line was just starting to move below zero, so the pair fell by more than 50 pips. It hit 1.2042, where many traders closed positions, prompting a brief 10-pip increase. Pressure returned immediately after, but this only made it obvious that a huge rebound is brewing in the market. Nothing happened yet though as the pound continued its decline yesterday.
Although UK's composite PMI and service activity exceeded expectations, the pound did not rise because the Bank of England's minutes of the meeting and financial stability report confirmed the fears of traders, that is, a continued aggressive increase of interest rates. In addition, better-than-expected data on the volume of industrial orders in the US led to an even greater strengthening of dollar, prompting a deeper decline in GBP/USD.
Ahead are important reports that could further drive the market, such as the business activity data in the UK construction sector for June this year. There will also be a speech from MPC member Jonathan Cunliffe, which could give hints on the future of the monetary policy. In the afternoon, the US will publish reports on business activity from the IHS Markit, followed by a speech from FOMC member John Williams. Most likely, traders will look for hints of a further aggressive policy, which will only strengthen the position of the dollar.
For long positions:
Buy pound when the quote reaches 1.1981 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2038 (thicker green line on the chart). However, there is little chance for a rally today because the market is bearish. Nevertheless, when buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1925, however, the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1981 and 1.2038.
For short positions:
Sell pound when the quote reaches 1.1925 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1871. Pressure will return if there is no bullish activity at yearly lows and if the UK releases weak economic statistics. However, when selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero or is starting to move down from it. Pound can also be sold at 1.1981, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1925 and 1.1871.
What's on the chart:
The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the GBP/USD pair.
The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.
The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the GBP/USD pair.
The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.
MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
