01.12.2022 07:44 AM
Outlook and trading signals for GBP/USD on December 1. COT report. Analysis of market situation. Jerome Powell provoked the dollar's collapse.

M5 chart of GBP/USD

This image is no longer relevant

GBP/USD showed identical movements to EUR/USD on Wednesday. Traders worked out the U.S. reports, but they had a delayed reaction to them, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech in the evening did not provide any new information to traders, but they still started selling the US dollar again. I believe that the market is still not in a mood to sell, although the euro and pound have grown enough in recent weeks to correct. But as we said before, if there are no short positions, there is no downward movement. During the last days, the pair started hovering around the Senkou Span B and Kijun-Sen lines, which makes the current technical picture even more confusing. GBP ended the day near 1.2106 and even though the rally was not justified, we still expect a bearish correction. Today will be a little bit easier in terms of the fundamental background, but on Friday we anticipate a very significant report in the form of NonFarm Payrolls data, which can show negative dynamics.

As for trading signals, the situation was very complicated, but look at the nature of the pair's movement during the day! First, there were three sell signals near 1.1974, which duplicated each other. Only one short position had to be opened, and traders could close it almost anywhere. The fact is that the levels of 1.1974, 1.2007 and the Kijun-sen line were to be considered as an area. GBP did not settle above this area so there was no signal to cancel short positions. Formally, this short could be closed near the Senkou Span B line in profit. However, once again, such traders' actions were not obvious. The next buy signal in the form of GBP settling above the Senkou Span B could also bring profit, as the price at least returned to the level of 1.1974.

COT report

This image is no longer relevant

The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report on GBP logged a slight decrease in bearish sentiment. In the given period, the non-commercial group closed 1,900 long positions and 8,800 short positions. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 7,000. The net position is gradually growing during the last months, but the sentiment of the big players is still bearish. The pound has been rising in recent weeks, but so far it does not seem that it is preparing for a long-term uptrend. And, if we remember the euro's situation, then based on the COT reports, we can hardly expect a surge in price. The demand for the US currency remains very high, and the market, as it seems, is just waiting for new geopolitical shocks so it can return to buying the dollar. The non-commercial group now has a total of 67,000 shorts and 34,000 longs opened. As we can see, there is a wide gap between them. As it turns out the euro is now unable to show growth when market sentiment is bullish. When it comes to the total number of long and short positions, here bulls have an advantage of 17,000. Still, this is not enough for the sterling to increase. Anyway, we are still skeptical about the pound's long-term growth although the technical picture shows otherwise.

H1 chart of GBP/USD

This image is no longer relevant

The pair started moving down on the one-hour chart, which we have been waiting for. It has crossed the trend line, so the uptrend is officially canceled. I believe that the pound may show a solid decline in the near future, but for now it needs to break through at least the Senkou Span B line and hope for support from this week's fundamental background. On Thursday, the pair may trade at the following levels: 1.1760, 1.1874, 1.1974-1.2007, 1.2106, 1.2185, 1.2259, 1.2342. The Senkou Span B (1.1959) and Kijun Sen (1.2013) lines may also generate signals. Pullbacks and breakouts through these lines may produce signals as well. A Stop Loss order should be set at the breakeven point after the price passes 20 pips in the right direction. Ichimoku indicator lines may move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. In addition, the chart does illustrate support and resistance levels, which could be used to lock in profits. On Thursday, the UK is scheduled to release an index of business activity, while the US will release important ISM indexes for services and manufacturing. Today could also be a volatile day.

What we see on the trading charts:

Price levels of support and resistance are thick red lines, near which the movement may end. They do not provide trading signals.

The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, moved to the one-hour chart from the 4-hour one. They are strong lines.

Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price bounced earlier. They provide trading signals.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts reflects the net position size of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts reflects the net position size for the non-commercial group.

Paolo Greco,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2023
Euro vs US Dollar
Select timeframe
Start trade
Start trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
  • Chancy Deposit
    Deposite US $ 3.000 em sua conta e receba $8000 mais!
    Em Março nós sorteamos $8000 na campanha Chancy Deposit!
    Tenha a chance de ganhar, depositando $3,000 em sua conta de negociação. Após cumprir essa condição, você se torna um participante da campanha.
  • Trade Wise, Win Device
    Abasteça a sua conta com pelo menos $500, inscreva-se no concurso e tenha a chance de ganhar dispositivos móveis.
  • Bônus de 100%
    Sua oportunidade única de receber um bônus de 100% em seu depósito
  • Bônus de 55%
    Solicite um bônus de 55% em cada depósito
  • Bônus de 30%
    Receba um bônus de 30% toda vez que você fizer um depósito em sua conta

Recommended Stories

GBP/USD: plano de negociação para a sessão americana de 27 de março (análise das negociações da manhã)

Nas minhas previsões feitas durante o período da manhã, eu me concentrei no nível 1.2246 e ofereci recomendações baseadas nele para as decisões de entrada no mercado. Vamos

Miroslaw Bawulski 21:33 2023-03-27 UTC+2

Perspectiva para o AUD/USD para 27 de março de 2023.

AUD/USD continua a operar em um mercado de baixa, a curto, médio e longo prazo. As macro estatísticas da semana passada da Austrália foram fracas e não puderam suportar

Jurij Tolin 15:44 2023-03-27 UTC+2

GBP/USD: plano comercial para sessão europeia em 27 de março. Relatório COT. GBP ainda tem chance de subir.

Na sexta-feira, os traders receberam apenas um sinal para entrar no mercado. Vamos dar uma olhada no gráfico de 5 minutos para descobrir o que aconteceu. Anteriormente, pedi que prestassem

Miroslaw Bawulski 15:26 2023-03-27 UTC+2

EUR/USD: plano de negociação para sessão europeia em 27 de março. Compromisso dos Traders. EUR irá cair para 1,0777.

Na sexta-feira, houve vários pontos de entrada. Agora, vamos olhar para o gráfico de 5 minutos e descobrir o que realmente aconteceu. Em meu artigo matinal, voltei sua atenção para

Miroslaw Bawulski 15:03 2023-03-27 UTC+2

Plano de negociação para o EUR/USD em 27 de março de 2023.

O par EUR/USD reverteu acentuadamente após imprimir máximas em torno de 1,0930 na última semana. O par de moeda única quase alcançou 1,0700 na última sexta-feira antes de encontrar algumas

Oscar Ton 14:43 2023-03-27 UTC+2

Plano de negociação para o índice do dólar americano em 27 de março de 2023.

O índice do dólar americano (DXY) produziu uma reversão de alta acentuada a partir dos 101,50 mínimos formados na quinta-feira da semana passada, conforme projetado. O índice conseguiu atingir

Oscar Ton 14:38 2023-03-27 UTC+2

GBP/USD: plano de negociação para a sessão americana de 24 de março (análise das negociações da manhã).

Eu me concentrei no nível de 1.2284 quando fiz minha previsão de manhã e sugeri decisões de negociação baseadas nela. Vamos dar uma olhada no gráfico de 5 minutos para

Miroslaw Bawulski 19:44 2023-03-24 UTC+2

EUR/USD: plano de negociação para a sessão americana de 24 de março. Visão geral das negociações feitas pela manhã. EUR cai mais.

Em meu artigo escrito pela manhã, chamei a sua atenção para 1.0801 e recomendei a tomada de decisões com este nível em foco. Agora, vamos olhar o gráfico

Miroslaw Bawulski 16:24 2023-03-24 UTC+2

EUR/USD: plano de negociação para sessão europeia em 24 de março. Relatório COT. O euro está sem forças para subir.

Ontem, os traders receberam vários sinais para entrar no mercado. Vamos dar uma olhada no gráfico de 5 minutos para descobrir o que aconteceu. Antes, pedi que prestassem atenção

Miroslaw Bawulski 16:02 2023-03-24 UTC+2

Plano de negociação do índice do dólar americano em 24 de março de 2023.

O índice do dólar americano (DXY) caiu através dos mínimos intradiários de101,55 nesta quinta-feira, antes de encontrar ofertas e voltar a subir novamente. O índice subiu através da zona 102,20-25

Oscar Ton 15:25 2023-03-24 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.