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07.12.2022 11:17 AM
Fed does not have any grounds to continue an aggressive rate hike

Markets are troubled by the growing fears that the Fed will change its mind on interest rates due to the recent positive data on the US economy. They worry that the increase will again be 0.75% instead of the 0.50% announced by Jerome Powell last week. The most affected stock markets, especially in the US. Other financial markets are not so negative, such as the government debt market, which only shows consolidation and nothing more. In the forex market, the dollar has risen slightly for the past two days, but it remains uncertain whether this is a signal of a new trend.

The situation indicates that investors in the stock markets took advantage of the positive news to lock in profits before the Fed meeting next week. The dynamics of the three main indices show that their decline is not that deep as they have corrected to strong support levels, but remain in a short-term upward trend. The sell-off in the past two days is also likely because investors want to get into cheaper assets after the meeting as Powell's words have very high chances of coming true.

In terms of statistics, layoffs are expected to surge early next year due to the slowdown of the US economy. History shows that abrupt changes in interest rates have a delayed effect for three to six months. And if the US economy slows down in the 1st quarter quite markedly, the cycle of rate increases could end in the 2nd quarter, provided that inflation dips.

Forecasts for today:

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EUR/USD

The pair is trading at 1.0460. An increase in buying pressure will push the quote to 1.0585.

XAU/USD

Gold has a high chance of staying above the level of 1764.00. If market sentiment improves, expect the price to return to 1808.00.

Pati Gani,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
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