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30.01.2023 08:55 AM
Analysis and trading tips for EUR/USD on January 30

Analysis of transactions and tips for trading EUR/USD

The test of 1.0890 occurred when the MACD line was already far from zero, so the upside potential was limited. Sometime later, another test took place, but this time the MACD line was in the overbought area, which was a good signal to sell. This resulted in a price decrease of around 40 pips. No other signals appeared for the rest of the day.

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Statements from ECB President Christine Lagarde had no impact on the market last Friday, while data on core PCE in the US, which matched forecasts, sent dollar higher.

For today, the only report worth watching is Germany's GDP data for Q4, which might be worse than expected. That could bring back pressure on EUR/USD. However, there are no statistics scheduled to be released in the afternoon, so euro may attempt to resume an upward movement ahead of the Fed meeting this week.

For long positions:

Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.0885 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0925. Growth could occur if the economic data from Germany exceeds expectations. However, make sure that when buying, the MACD line is above zero or is starting to rise from it. Euro can also be bought at 1.0855, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0885 and 1.0925.

For short positions:

Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.0855 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0816. Pressure will return if the attempt to rise above 1.0885 fails. However, make sure that when selling, the MACD line is below zero or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 1.0885, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0855 and 1.0816.

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What's on the chart:

The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.

The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.

MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Jakub Novak,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
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