Trend analysis:

GBP/USD is likely to move down in February, starting from the closing of the January monthly candle at 1.2312 to the 14.6% retracement level at 1.2134 (yellow dotted line). Upon reaching it, the quote will bounce back to the 61.8% retracement level at 1.2748 (red dashed line).

Fig. 1 (monthly chart)

Comprehensive analysis:

Indicator analysis - downtrend

Fibonacci levels - downtrend

Volumes - uptrend

Candlestick analysis - downtrend

Trend analysis - uptrend

Bollinger bands - uptrend

All this points to a downward movement in GBP/USD.

Conclusion: The pair will have a bearish trend with no first upper shadow (the first week of the month is black) and a second lower shadow (the last week is white).

Throughout the month, pound will fall from 1.2312 (closing of the January monthly candle) to the 14.6% retracement level at 1.2134 (yellow dotted line), and then bounce back to the 61.8% retracement level at 1.2748 (red dashed line).

Alternatively, it could rise from 1.2312 (closing of the January monthly candle) to the 61.8% retracement level at 1.2748 (red dotted line) first, and then show a continued downward movement.