08.02.2023 09:15 AM
Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 08/02/2023

At the end of last year, the media kept saying that the Federal Reserve was about to start cutting interest rates, although the macroeconomic dynamics indicated otherwise. The representatives of the U.S. central bank themselves repeatedly hinted at the need for tighter monetary policy. And yesterday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said outright that the labor market's situation clearly calls for a much larger interest rate hike than previously thought. These statements stifled a correction that had not yet begun. Nevertheless, it is worth paying attention to the fact that the dollar did not strengthen further. And this tells us only one thing - the market desperately needs a correction. And yesterday there was an attempt to make at least something like a rebound. Especially when the macroeconomic calendar is empty. Today's situation is the same, and if the market does not hear any more loud statements, the dollar will have to retreat a bit. However, not for a long time, but just for a while. After hearing Powell's comments, there is no doubt that we are just at the beginning of an uptrend of the USD.

GBPUSD continued to move within the area of the psychological level of 1.2000, despite the local changes. This stagnation may indicate regrouping of trading forces, which will eventually play into the hands of speculators.

On the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator no longer carried oversold conditions, this happened when the price was actively moving along 1.2000. It is worth noting that the indicator is still in the lower area of 30/50, which leaves the possibility of a further increase in the volume of short positions on the pound. This technical signal may be canceled in case it crosses the 50 midline upwards.

On the four-hour chart, the Alligator's MAs are headed downwards, which reflects the existing correctional movement. On the daily chart, the indicator has changed the direction following the current correction.

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In this case, you should pay attention to the following levels: staying above 1.2100, at least in the four-hour chart, may indicate the end of the correctional movement, and if the price stays below 1.1950 in the daily chart, this will extend the current downtrend.

As long as the aforementioned technical signals are not confirmed, the market will continue to hover along the psychological level of 1.2000.

In terms of the complex indicator analysis, we see that in the short-term and intraday periods, there are mixed signals due to the mixed movements.

Dean Leo,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
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