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14.02.2023 09:15 AM
Analysis and trading tips for EUR/USD on February 14

Analysis of transactions and tips for trading EUR/USD

The first test of 1.0695 occurred when the MACD line was already far from zero, so the upside potential was limited. But sometime later, there was another test, where the MACD line was in the overbought area and was gradually descending from there. This was a good entry point to sell, resulting in a price decrease of around 20 pips. A third test in the afternoon showed that buying coincided with the MACD line moving above zero, leading to a rise of about 30 pips.

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Euro rose, thanks to very good forecasts for the European economy. The speech of FOMC member Michelle Bowman also had no impact on dollar so there was no decline in the afternoon.

Ahead is a report on the eurozone's growth rate in Q4, but there is not much to look forward to as it is not expected to be different from the previous estimate. The data on unemployment in the Eurozone will also be of little interest.

In the afternoon, a very important market indicator is coming out, that is, the consumer price index, which will determine the future direction of dollar. A rise in it will cause EUR/USD to fall, while a decline will weaken dollar and allow the pair to rise. Comments from FOMC members Patrick Harker, Laurie Logan and John Williams could also affect the market.

For long positions:

Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.0755 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0789. Growth will occur if there is good GDP data and weakening US inflation. However, make sure that when buying, the MACD line is above zero or is starting to rise from it. Euro can also be bought at 1.0724, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0755 and 1.0789.

For short positions:

Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.0724 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0688. Pressure will return if there is another rise in US inflation. However, make sure that when selling, the MACD line is below zero or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 1.0755, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0724 and 1.0688.

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What's on the chart:

The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.

The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.

MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Jakub Novak,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
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