Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting eight-day low 102.97 Thursday. It is undermined by flows to haven yen and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 7.24% to 13.77, S&P fell 0.89% overnight) amid emerging-markets turmoil as the Turkish lira, Russian ruble, South African rand and Argentine peso tumbled to multiyear lows against the dollar and fears of Chinese economic slowdown after HSBC China preliminary manufacturing PMI fell to 49.6 this month from 50.5 in December. USD/JPY is also weighed by the negative dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 80.45 versus 81.19 early Thursday) on drop in Markit U.S. flash manufacturing PMI to 53.7 in January from 55.0 in December, smaller-than-expected 1.0% rise in U.S. existing-home sales to 4.87 million in December (versus 4.93 million forecast), weaker-than-expected 0.1% rise in U.S. Conference Board December index of leading economic indicators (versus +0.2% forecast), drop in Chicago Fed National Activity Index to +0.16 in December from +0.69 in November; lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year yield fell to 2.7589, below the level before the Federal Reserve said in December it would scale back its bond-buying stimulus program; Japan exporter sales. But dollar sentiment soothed by smaller-than-expected 1000 increase in U.S. jobless claims to 326,000 in week ended Jan. 18 (versus forecast 330,000); rise in Kansas City Fed's manufacturing composite index to 5 in January from minus 3 in December, while the employment index jumped to 11 the highest since October 2011--from 0 in December. USD/JPY losses are also tempered by demand from the Japan importers and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy and positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD is in bearish mode, stochastics is turned to bearish and bearish outside-day-range pattern is completed on Thursday.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. A short position is recommended with the first target at 101.75 in mind. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 101.55. The pivot point stands at 103.05. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support, and moves above its pivot point, the price is most favourably expected to move further to the upside. In that scenario a long position is recommended with the first target at 103.55 and the second target at 103.8.

Resistance levels:
103.55
103.8
104.1

Support levels:
101.75
101.55
101.25