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11.04.2014 03:12 AM
Forecast analysis of crude for April 11, 2014

Crude oil has recently looked like forming a 5-wave decline. But the subsequent rally has gone past key retracement, so I have reworked the wave counts. Most momentum indicators are now in buy mode and holding weekly and monthly averages prepared for wave 3 up to 112. The Goldman energy ndx also shows a wave 3 development and the CRB is rising past its wave 1 high. I think this is the best preferred view for now. Crude should be on to a good rally.

In the long-term chart of crude, once again we need to give credit to the long triangular formation. If 112 is surpassed then larger wave C up out of the triangle would head to 147 to test the previous all time high.

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In the H4 chart, the RSI is in overbought conditions. We expect the price to come back up to 102.5, 101.90, and 101.20. The price looks weak only below 103 levels.

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