Economists estimate US retail sales have climbed by 0.9% in March. Excluding autos and gas, sales are estimated to have climbed by 0.4%. “Retail sales probably rose solidly in March after severe winter weather weighed on recent sales performance,” said UBS’s Kevin Cummins. “Among components, auto sales likely increased solidly after only a modest rise in February and sharp declines of 2.2% in January and 2.1% in December.

USD/JPY has been in a downtrend from 104.10 levels. It made a double top pattern and is moving to lower levels. This week's trading pattern is very crucial to this pair. If the pair closes below the previous weeks low at the 101.33 level, it will resume its 17-month bullish flag pattern and it will drift towards the 100 levels. In the weekly chart, the RSI is favoring sell mode. For the week of April 14-17, we expect the pair will give a pullback towards 101.85, 102.2, 102.5 levels. A day close above the 102.5 levels will cause the pair to fly up to 103.30 levels.

In the H4 chart, RSI is giving a positive direction favoring bulls. This view will be invalidated once the pair breaks the 101.33 levels. In Asia's trading session the pair is trading at 101.57 levels. The pair is forming a symmetric triangle, if it gives an upside breakout, it will fly towards 101.8 and 102.17 levels. If it breaks the 101.33 level, it will fall to 100 levels. Until the pair closes above the 102.50 levels, sell-on-rallies will be the best strategy. Bulls will be back only above the 102.50 levels. If the pair is unable to cross 102.16 levels again, it will retest the lower levels, or maybe it will break the previous low and will drift towards 100.5 and 100 levels.

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