Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Thursday, and none of them are particularly significant. In Germany, the GfK consumer confidence index will be published early in the morning, while in America, initial jobless claims will be reported. Both of these reports have virtually no chance of influencing traders' sentiment. Over the past month and a half, the market has largely ignored a torrent of macroeconomic data, and we would not expect traders to react to economic reports until the situation in the Middle East is resolved. In any case, they do not affect anything.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Thursday, only a few speeches by Fed representatives stand out. Specifically, Lisa Cook, Stephen Miran, Thomas Jefferson, and Michael Barr will be speaking. However, the markets received comprehensive information on the plans of all three central banks last week. We learned that the Fed will likely not resume lowering the key rate until at least December 2026, and, in contrast to the ECB and the Bank of England, it is not looking to tighten monetary policy. All three central banks expect consumer prices to rise due to the conflict in the Middle East, which has driven oil and gas prices to unprecedented levels. Therefore, inflation reports will determine central banks' monetary policy in the near future. There are no news updates from Donald Trump or regarding the Middle East at this time, and the markets are not particularly inclined to believe Trump's promises from Monday.

General Conclusions:

On the penultimate trading day of the week, the market may experience any movements, as news from the Middle East can come at any time and is highly contradictory. The euro can be traded from the area of 1.1584-1.1591 today, while the British pound can be traded from the area of 1.3319-1.3331. We continue to see no grounds for a strong and sustained rise in the American currency (considering all factors, not just geopolitics), and there have been even fewer reasons for this in the past week and the beginning of the current week.

Key Principles of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades have been opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can form many false signals or none at all. In any case, at the first signs of a flat trend, it is best to stop trading.
4. Trading deals are to be opened during the period between the start of the European session and the mid-American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade based on signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
6. If two levels are positioned too close together (5-20 pips apart), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
7. Upon moving 15-20 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.

Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.