Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 157.29 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well above the zero line, limiting the pair's upside potential.

Despite all the yen's problems, it has so far managed to fend off the strong dollar. Yen weakness remains a serious issue, and Japan and the US will maintain close contact to keep the FX market orderly, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said yesterday. The minister noted Japan will continue close coordination with US financial authorities and work to preserve orderly market conditions. Recently, the yen has traded at levels not seen since the 1980s — good news for tourists but a headache for the economy. The US has become involved; Katayama said she spoke by phone with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and both officials confirmed mutual concern about the yen's depreciation and agreed to strengthen cooperation. I expect the yen to trade near current levels until the market feels the intervention risk has passed — which would require Japan's rhetoric to soften or evidence that authorities do not intend to intervene in practice.

For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on executing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

No 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today around 157.57 (green line on the chart), targeting 158.06 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.06, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip counter-move). It's best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks. Important: before buying, ensure the MACD is above zero and has just begun to rise.

No 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests 157.25 twice in a row while MACD is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downside potential and trigger an upward reversal. Expect moves to 157.57 and 158.06.

Sell Scenarios

No 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 157.25 level is breached (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline. Sellers' key target is 156.75, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip counter-move). Sellers can return at any moment — it only takes a hint from the central bank. Important: before selling, ensure the MACD is below zero and has just begun falling.

No 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 157.57 twice in a row while MACD is in the overbought area. This would limit upside potential and trigger a downward reversal. Expect falls toward 157.25 and 156.75.

What to Look for on the Chart:

• Thin Green Line – Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick Green Line – Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin Red Line – Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick Red Line – Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of significant fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not employ money management practices and trade large volumes.

Also, remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.