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15.05.2012 02:09 PM
AUD/USD Elliott Wave Count for May 15, 2012

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AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Yesterday the AUD/USD pair was trading in a downward movement. During the European session we could observe the descending movement toward the 0.9660 level. The AUD/USD pair did not manage to hold this level and we could observe slightly upward movevement during the early New York session. At the end of the NY session the price returned to the 0.9960 level.Today during the early Asian session we could observe price at 0.9945 level.We can consider this move as the end of the wave A (coloured blue). Currently the AUD/USD pair is testing 50EMA resistance and we are expecting to see price around 1.0100 today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave B retraces 61.8% of the wave A, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci retracement (1.0473-0.9945) with Take Profit 1 at 1.0209 (50% of wave A) and Take Profit 2 at 1.0271 (61.8% of wave A). The resistance level of 0.9960 can be used as Stop Loss.Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S Core CPI m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m, CPI m/m, Empire State Manufacturing Index, TIC Long-Term Purchases and Business Inventories m/m that can affect the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 0.9904 (S2) 0.9934 (S1) 0.9953 (PP) 0.9982 (R1) 1.0012 (R2) 1.0031 (R3) 1.0060

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why Long positions at level 1.0010 with Stop Loss at 0.9960, Take Profit 1 at 1.0209 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0271 are recommended.

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