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01.08.2012 04:35 PM
-Thursday 02 August, the Day Expected--, Fundamental Analysis, for August 01, 2012

 

Several announcements which are about to appear in the next few hours still keep the markets in suspense, they are moving very cautiously calculate every movement.
The Federal Reserve, through its designated national monetary policy, and the FOMC will announce this afternoon the next to be taken in order to give stimulus to the economy, which showed new signs of weakness in recent months.
The previous report added concern that it will be impossible to reach the unemployment rate of 8%, which remains on this level for over 3 years.
In order to do so, the markets expect the Fed to announce a new QE, a huge infusion of money, the third one since the ex post implemented the crisis in 2008. Sure, there are always doubts: in this case, the first question is whether the QE is finally announced, after it was expected at the last meeting. The second question is to see what scope should have a plan of this type.
Failing to implement the stimulus plan expected last month will cause a sharp drop on Wall Street, which will affect the European currencies, increasingly compromised by the debt crisis threatening the continent.
This time, the end of the chapter is completely open: the currency movements observed in the hours not only depend on what the Fed says, but also on what happens in the monetary policy meetings of the ECB and BoE, which end on Thursday morning.
As it is seen, a quite interesting scenario is the one that starts this August the foreign exchange market, with trends that, if everything goes as in previous calculations, could generate gains of the euro, the British pound, the Swiss franc and other currencies against the dollar. Why? If the Fed injects money, markets will be pleased, and launch waves of buyouts. The shares carry with them the currencies, driven by good spirits. And a solution of the ECB, so far theoretical and announced by the Chairman Draghi last week, could also give impetus to the euro itself.
Too many coincidences? Maybe, we will see it in 24 hours.
For now, what comes in addition to the Fed announcement is the U.S. manufacturing ISM, at 10:00. If you are fairly in line with expectations, it could be the beginning of a new upward movement of the main actions on Wall Street. But there is not much, until the Fed unveils its intentions for the immediate future. Thus, we must tighten our belts, because the market will give us one of those typical days of good moves.

 

 

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