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18.09 - Commodities - Oil gains on tight supply expectations. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB
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2023-09-18 18:14 UTC+3
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14.09.2023: USD seeks reasons to soar. Outlook for USDX, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD
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14.09.2023: Oil prices to resume gains. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB
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12.09.2023: Markets anticipate key reports. Outlook for EUR/USD and GBP/USD
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12.09.2023: Oil market awaits US data. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB
2023-09-12 17:13 UTC+3
12.09.2023: AI boosts ‘Magnificent Seven’ stocks while USD shows resilience. USDX, USD/JPY, AUD/USD
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Forex forecast 09/12/2023 on EUR/USD, GOLD, Crude Oil and Bitcoin from Petar Jacimovic
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2023-09-11 20:42 UTC+3
Oil prices have been rising for nearly a month now. Slowly but surely, the asset is heading toward the level of 100 dollars per barrel.
This is partly due to the likelihood of increased demand from China, the world’s largest oil importer. Recent macroeconomic reports signal a gradual recovery in the country's economic growth.
At the same time, experts at the International Energy Agency warn that voluntary oil output cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could drive a substantial market deficit through the fourth quarter.
From a technical point of view, Brent crude continues to gain value, although it is extremely overbought. The asset has kicked off the new trading week by hitting a new local high, which indicates an inertial movement. If traders keep ignoring overbought signals, the benchmark will have every chance of rising to the psychological level of 100 dollars per barrel. At the same time, please bear in mind that sooner or later market participants will start locking in profits, which could lead to a steep drop in the quotes.
Judging by fundamental factors, there are two possible ways for the start of a correction.
The asset may enter a correction if the Federal Reserve raises the refinancing rate on Wednesday or signals a few more hikes in the near future.
Alternatively, if the outcome of the meeting does not evoke a strong market response, and the rhetoric of the US regulator turns out to be ambiguous, oil prices will extend gains, heading for the mark of 100 dollars per barrel, but then see a correction. In this case, a pullback will be much deeper as the market may be gripped by panic.
Meanwhile, gold has come close to 1,930 dollars per ounce and is likely to advance to $1,940 per barrel in the next couple of days. Its further dynamic will depend on the outcome of the Fed’s meeting. The central bank does not even have to lift interest rates. Hints of further rate increases will be enough to bring the yellow metal down to 1,900 dollars per ounce. If the US regulator raises the refinancing rate, gold will probably break below this mark and edge lower.
As for the situation in the Russian market, the Bank of Russia raised its key rate by another hundred basis points and announced its intention to further tighten monetary policy. However, the ruble failed to gain value. It just halted its slide. Probably, this can be attributed to large investors stating that such high interest rates are causing irreparable damage to the economy and are rather detrimental to the currency’s stability.
With many players trying to avoid risks and thus fleeing into more stable currencies, the situation becomes alarming. However, the regulator continues to ignore what is happening.
Despite a broad array of statistics and news releases, the dollar/ruble pair is still trading near the 97 mark. This indicates speculators’ interest in long dollar bets, as the market would otherwise see a price reversal.
In the meantime, the stock market is surprisingly strong. It is still moving upwards, with no signs of a decline. Apparently, there is little borrowed capital in the market. Another reason is that even if Russian institutional investors use borrowed funds, they borrow them at fixed rates. This adds to stability. Although it protects the market from sharp fluctuations amid the Russian central bank's decisions, it also limits its upside potential. It has been quite a long time since the start of the sanctions confrontation, which severely constrains the work of domestic investors in foreign markets. Thus, free capital seems to have ended up in the domestic market. So there is no place for new capital to come from. Moreover, extremely high interest rates make borrowed capital expensive. So, in the best-case scenario, the market may get stuck in the sideways range of 3,100 to 3,200.
That’s all for now. We wish you profitable deals. See you on our channel with a new video in a couple of hours!

00:00 Introduction
00:11 Situation on the oil market.
00:39 Brent
01:25 Two possible options for oil price correction
02:00 Gold
02:38 Interest rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation: consequences of an increase
03:11 USD/RUB
03:43 Russian stock market
04:54 Conclusion

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