26.05.2023: USD to start correction? Outlook for USDX, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD
18.09.2023: USD continues gaining in value despite obstacles. Outlook for EUR/USD and GBP/USD
2023-09-18 18:14 UTC+3
18.09.2023: Calm before storm? Outlook for USDX, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD
2023-09-18 16:08 UTC+3
18.09 - Commodities - Oil gains on tight supply expectations. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB
2023-09-18 15:43 UTC+3
15.09.2023: Wall Street making downward retracement after yesterday’s rally (S&P500, USD, CAD, BTC)
2023-09-15 20:19 UTC+3
15.09/2023: US Dollar remains resilient to all headwinds. Outlook for EUR/USD and GBP/USD
2023-09-15 19:08 UTC+3
15.09.2023: Gold prices set to resume rally. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB
2023-09-15 15:41 UTC+3
15.09.2023: China puts pressure on USD, JPY loses hope for uptrend. USDX, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD
2023-09-15 13:34 UTC+3
14.09.2023: Wall Street less sensitive to inflation data than US Fed? (S&P500, USD, CAD, Bitcoin)
2023-09-14 20:03 UTC+3
14.09.2023: ECB’s decision hampers USD uptrend. Outlook for EUR/USD and GBP/USD
2023-09-14 17:21 UTC+3
14.09.2023: USD seeks reasons to soar. Outlook for USDX, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD
2023-09-14 15:39 UTC+3
14.09.2023: Oil prices to resume gains. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB
2023-09-14 15:21 UTC+3
13.09.2023: Wall Street puzzled as US CPIs paint mixed picture (S&P500, USD, CAD, Bitcoin)
2023-09-13 20:57 UTC+3
13.09.2023: Ready! Steady! Go! US dollar set to hit new highs. Outlook for EUR/USD and GBP/USD
2023-09-13 18:36 UTC+3
13.09.2023: Oil gains as experts predict tight supplies. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB
2023-09-13 16:11 UTC+3
13.09.2023: JPY’s rally on Ueda’s comments not sustainable. USDX, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/INR
2023-09-13 15:46 UTC+3
12.09.2023: Wall Street to retrace after rally of high-tech stocks (S&P500, USD, CAD, Bitcoin)
2023-09-12 19:09 UTC+3
12.09.2023: Markets anticipate key reports. Outlook for EUR/USD and GBP/USD
2023-09-12 17:32 UTC+3
12.09.2023: Oil market awaits US data. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB
2023-09-12 17:13 UTC+3
12.09.2023: AI boosts ‘Magnificent Seven’ stocks while USD shows resilience. USDX, USD/JPY, AUD/USD
2023-09-12 15:12 UTC+3
Forex forecast 09/12/2023 on EUR/USD, GOLD, Crude Oil and Bitcoin from Petar Jacimovic
2023-09-12 11:36 UTC+3
11.09.2023: Wall Street poised to open new week with gains (S&P500, USD, CAD, Bitcoin)
2023-09-11 20:42 UTC+3
A recent rally of the US dollar looks quite odd given mounting concerns over the debt ceiling. The standoff in talks is not beneficial for the greenback as the prolonged negotiations pose a risk to the economy.

Although lawmakers have made lots of optimistic statements about the talks, there has been no result yet. Speaker Kevin McCarthy told reporters “We do not have a deal,” adding that they have been “going back and forth” with the White House and it is “not easy.” “It takes a while to make it happen and we are working hard to make it happen,” he noted.

A potential deal is 70% ready. The parties are trying to reach an agreement on raising the debt ceiling and setting a two-year budget for the federal government. Besides, the X-Date is June 1st. However, analysts see a few more days of wiggle room.

If the US Treasury still has money after the deadline, talks may continue. Nevertheless, market participants believe that it is just a political game in which each party is trying to take the upper hand. So, investors are confident that lawmakers will not allow the government to default on the debt,

Therefore, investors pay more attention to other factors – economic reports and monetary policy prospects. The US dollar has plenty of bullish factors now. It is likely to extend its third-week winning streak.

In the morning, it rose to a 2-month high above 104. The US currency has been growing for the whole week as well as government bond yields amid strong US GDP data and less dovish than expected Fed’s meeting minutes.

While the US economy remains resilient despite high key rates, the central bank will hardly shift to monetary easing this year. Nevertheless, recent economic data and the agreement on the debt ceiling could affect the bullish sentiment on the greenback.

Ahead of a long weekend, sellers have decided to lock in profits. Therefore, a correction may take place. At the end of the Asian session, the US dollar slid into the range of 104.0–104.3 for the first time this week. Its trajectory was very volatile.

The next target levels are located at 102.85 (support level) and 104.31 (resistance level from May 25).

Given such positive macro stats, a small correction occurred and the pair fell to 139.7. The trajectory of the Japanese currency largely depends on risk sentiment in stock markets.

A steady rise in Treasury yields after Kazue Ueda’s hawkish comments somewhat eased the pressure on the yen today. The dollar/yen pair was moving in the price corridor of 139.5–140.1.

Now, the resistance levels are seen at 140.2 and 140.5. The support level after the breakout of 139.7 shifted to 139.4.

Commodity currencies incurred big losses because of a steady increase in the US dollar this week. However, they managed to recover early Friday. After falling to the lows of November last year, the aussie resumed growth in the Asian session.

Following a rollback of the greenback, the aussie rebounded to 0.6525 from its six-month low. The pair's rise was also driven by China's currency intervention and the improved sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region.

The AUD/USD was fluctuating in the range of 0.6490–0.6529. Moreover, the aussie grew even despite predictions of a policy reversal by the RBA. However, further upward movement still looks fragile.

The Australian dollar needs to break through its March low of 0.6565. If so, this level will turn into support. As risk aversion prevails in stock markets, this scenario looks unlikely.

The New Zealand dollar also bounced off from its multi-month lows at the end of the week. It took advantage of the correction of the US dollar and entered the upward range of 0.6048–0.6084. On the daily timeframe, the kiwi advanced to 0.6070.

Recently, it has been trading with a bearish bias, declining by more than 3% in a week. The kiwi lost ground after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand hinted at the end of the tightening cycle. Therefore, the overall outlook remains bearish.

00:00 Intro
00:36 US
02:06 USDX
04:39 USD/JPY
05:28 AUD/USD
06:39 NZD/USD


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Calendar and reviews
Trader’s calendar on september 25-27: Capital flows from Europe to US persist
Trader’s calendar on september 21-22: EU economies on brink of collapse?
Trader’s calendar on september 18-20: USD to continue its rally?
Trader’s calendar on september 14-15: China’s economy gradually recovering?
Trader’s calendar on september 11-13: USD to continue to strengthen
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