The wave count on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has become more complex. On the higher timeframe (bottom chart), the downward trend segment has taken the form of a five-wave structure, A-B-C-D-E, which could be complete at any moment, as it appears to be fully developed. All the waves within this segment are approximately equal in size, so this structure is considered corrective. If this assumption is correct, a new upward impulse segment will begin once it is complete, with targets located well above the 20.00 level.

On the lower timeframe (top chart), the development of an impulsive wave sequence continues, which may belong to wave E of the higher timeframe. If this is indeed the case, the dollar's strengthening is nearing its end, regardless of how much further it rises. The presumed wave 5 of E is either complete or close to completion. In any case, the current wave structure suggests that the downward wave sequence is nearing completion on both charts. The news background and the sharp shift in market sentiment have led to a strong rally in the US dollar, but few new factors remain to support further dollar strength.

The EUR/USD pair declined by 65 basis points on Friday, once again casting doubt on the current wave count, which has indicated a transition to an upward wave sequence for several consecutive weeks. Whenever the euro receives reasonably convincing reasons to rise, either buyers act too cautiously, the market ignores the news background, or subsequent information completely offsets all the positive factors supporting the euro. The same thing happened this week. The European currency could have posted a much more substantial gain following the US Congressional elections. Demand for the euro could also have been considerably stronger following the release of the Eurozone inflation report. However, the euro rose for several days before collapsing within just a few hours.

At present, there is insufficient evidence to conclude that the current wave count has been invalidated and that the instrument will definitely resume its decline and extend the downward wave sequence. However, every new decline in the euro brings traders closer to precisely this scenario. The European currency may still avoid breaking below its previous two lows, but this would require the news background to remain firmly supportive of the euro over the next few weeks and market participants to stop focusing exclusively on negative developments in the European Union. If these conditions are met, the development of an upward trend segment will begin.

However, if Donald Trump resumes military action in the Middle East in the near future, geopolitical factors will once again come to the forefront. Geopolitical developments are unlikely to trigger a substantial appreciation of the US dollar again, as the resumption of a conflict that had been put on hold would no longer come as a surprise, while the dollar has already been rising for more than two consecutive months. Nevertheless, Trump could opt for a more aggressive escalation in an attempt to force Iran to capitulate. The more intense and widespread the escalation, the higher the probability of another flight of capital into the safe-haven US dollar.

General Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, the pair remains within the framework of a global corrective trend segment A-B-C-D-E. However, this structure appears to be fully developed and may therefore be complete. The current conditions appear favorable not only for buying the European currency but also for anticipating the development of a full-fledged upward trend segment. According to the higher timeframe, the pair is expected to rise by at least to the 17.00–18.00 levels. The failed attempt to break above 1.1126, corresponding to the 50.0% Fibonacci level (bottom chart, higher timeframe), also indicates that the market may be preparing for a move higher.

On the higher timeframe, the downward trend segment is clearly visible and has taken the form of an A-B-C-D-E structure. The internal wave structure of wave E has developed into a five-wave impulse pattern, which may already be complete. If this assumption is correct, the development of a new upward trend segment will begin.

The main principles of my analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to understand. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often involve changes in the market outlook.

2. If there is uncertainty about current market conditions, it is better to stay out of the market.

3. There can never be 100% certainty about the direction of price movement. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.

4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

After five matchups, the Knights have collected six points, with forward Jakub Kolenič topping the club's scoring leaderboard. For the international brand InstaForex, a multi-year partner of HKM Zvolen, this start serves as a textbook example of a key principle: in elite athletics, the deciding factor is not a fleeting spark, but the capacity to stay resilient over the course of a long campaign.

A Flawless Launch: The Derby in Banská Bystrica and Home Success

The Knights launched their season with one of the calendar's marquee fixtures: the away Pohronie derby against Banská Bystrica. Clashes of this prestige demand peak alertness from the opening shifts; intense rivalries punish any loss of momentum.

Zvolen established its winning foundation in the first period. Seasoned defenseman and team captain Juraj Valach opened the scoring in the third minute and struck again in the fifteenth to complete a brace. Shortly before the horn, Brooklyn Kalmikov stretched the visitors' advantage to 3:1. Daniel Vladimír Tkáč and Aurel Nauš later added goals of their own. While the hosts staged a late push, Zvolen preserved the edge for a 5:3 win. Valach, who added an assist to his two goals, took home player of the match honors.

The squad sustained that momentum during their home opener at TIPOSBET Arena against Liptovský Mikuláš. Trailing 0:1 after the first twenty minutes, the Knights orchestrated a complete turnaround:

• In the 22nd minute, Daniel Vladimír Tkáč leveled the score;
• Shortly after, Tkáč set up Jozef Kukoš, putting the team ahead;
• Early in the third period, Tkáč notched his second goal of the night;
• Jakub Kolenič sealed the contest, locking in a 4:1 win.

Through two rounds, HKM Zvolen secured maximum points—6 points with 9 goals scored. The dynamic young forward unit of Tkáč – Nemec – Kolenič announced itself emphatically, contributing to three of the four scoring plays.

The Finishing Dilemma: When Pressure Fails to Yield Goals

Yet a championship marathon inevitably brings adversity. The road trip to Michalovce provided the first true character test. At even strength, Zvolen dictated tempo and threatened constantly, with Juraj Valach and Jakub Kolenič finding the net. The contest was ultimately decided on special teams: the hosts converted their power-play chances with ruthless efficiency to claim a 3:2 victory.

Round four featured a visit from a domestic heavyweight as Slovan Bratislava arrived at Pustý Hrad. Following an even opening frame, a sudden drop-off in the second period saw the visitors tally four unanswered goals. Jakub Kolenič scored the solitary consolation goal, assisted by Richard Nemec and Daniel Tkáč. The game concluded in a 1:6 defeat, though Kolenič's high work rate earned him HKM player of the game honors.

The round-five home contest against Dukla Trenčín developed into an outright paradox of efficiency. Zvolen controlled play entirely, hemming the opposition into their defensive zone. The shot ledger was overwhelmingly lopsided—45 to 17 in favor of the Knights. However, an extraordinary performance by visiting netminder Dávid Hrenák neutralized dozens of high-danger chances. After falling behind by two goals, Zvolen revived hope in the 44th minute when Aurel Nauš struck off a feed from Alex Bartakovics. Yet an opponent power-play marker set the final tally at 1:3.

Numbers and Leaders: A Foundation for the Next Leap

Through five opening fixtures, HKM Zvolen's record stands at two wins, three defeats, 6 points, and a 13:16 goal differential. The high-scoring output of the early games gave way to a finishing slump: four goals across the last three rounds despite producing high offensive volume.

Individual contributions from key leaders confirm the roster's scoring capacity:

1. Jakub Kolenič — 7 points (3 goals + 4 assists), a "+4" rating, and 1.4 points per contest.
2. Daniel Vladimír Tkáč — 6 points (3 goals + 3 assists) with a "+4" rating; a dependable top-line forward.
3. Juraj Valach — 4 points (3 goals + 1 assist). The captain registered 19 shots on goal, leading the roster.
4. Aurel Nauš — 3 points (2 goals + 1 assist), offering vital secondary offensive support.

Critically, the trio of Kolenič, Tkáč, and Valach produced 9 of the club's 13 goals, while Kolenič and Tkáč combined for 13 points, underlining the maturity of the primary forward unit.

Partnership Philosophy: The Long Run Sets the Standard

For InstaForex, multi-year support for HKM Zvolen extends beyond standard corporate sponsorship. This alliance rests on shared core values: discipline, perseverance, and dedication to systematic progress.

Elite sports offer no simple paths. A lineup can control possession and outshoot its rival, yet still drop points against an inspired goaltender. In moments like these, core resilience is everything. True professionalism means reviewing facts dispassionately, filtering out emotion, and systematically converting future chances.

Brand support does not engineer automatic wins on the ice. Athletic triumph is created exclusively through player execution, individual effort, and tactical preparation by the coaching staff. InstaForex's objective is to deliver a steady operational foundation and consistent backing, celebrating decisive victories while standing firm through tough competitive stretches.

The Tipsport Liga regular season is merely getting started. A long campaign awaits where the Knights will look to translate on-ice control into standings points. When a squad stays true to its structure and leans on dependable partners, weathering short-term downturns becomes a natural step toward sustainable success.

At the end of last week, the EUR/USD pair swept liquidity below the previous low, which signaled the possibility of an upward move. This week, however, the pair swept liquidity above the previous high, signaling another potential decline. Thus, the technical picture initially provided the euro with an opportunity to recover slightly before triggering another substantial decline. Buyers once again failed to take advantage of the available fundamental support and could not even reach the nearest imbalance, which would have provided an opportunity not only to anticipate another decline in the euro but also to open new short positions. However, buyers have rarely been this weak. Today, just two US economic reports were enough to trigger an 80-point decline in the European currency. These reports were undoubtedly important, and their results were highly favorable for the dollar. The US economy added as many as 165,000 new jobs according to the Nonfarm Payrolls report, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. In both cases, the results were significantly better than traders had expected.

Over the past two months, the fundamental background has frequently favored the European currency, but this has had virtually no impact on the price charts. This week, it became known that the Republican Party suffered a significant defeat in the elections, while inflation in the European Union accelerated to 4%. The US Congress will now be divided, and cooperation between Democrats and Republicans is likely to remain difficult. As a result, many important government decisions could face considerable delays. Higher inflation in the European Union points to further monetary policy tightening by the ECB, which is also a bullish factor. If the market is pricing in an FOMC rate hike, it should also be taking potential ECB rate hikes into account. Both of these factors favor the euro, yet neither has triggered a significant recovery.

It is worth recalling that one of the main reasons behind the dollar's appreciation over the past two months has been the Fed's hawkish stance. However, in practice, its position is not particularly hawkish compared with those of other central banks. For example, the ECB is expected to implement its third rate hike in December, while the Bank of England has only recently begun its monetary policy tightening cycle and could eventually raise interest rates more aggressively than the Fed. The pound is responding to monetary policy developments, whereas the euro is not.

At present, there are no clear signs that the bearish advance is coming to an end. Imbalance 24 remains valid, and the price could still react to this zone, potentially generating a sell signal. Buyers need to invalidate Imbalance 24 and form bullish patterns before any meaningful recovery can be expected. This would require a sharp upward move in the euro, which is still not evident.

Overall, the fundamental background continues to favor buyers, in the opinion of this analysis. Despite the Fed's increasingly hawkish monetary policy stance, it is not the only factor determining exchange rates. The European Union also faces economic challenges, but the key point is that problems exist across multiple economies, while the euro is the currency experiencing the most pronounced weakness. Both central banks are pursuing monetary policy tightening, yet only the dollar is appreciating. Nevertheless, a recovery in the euro should not be expected until bullish signals emerge. Opening long positions in the European currency in advance is also not advisable.

The current technical picture indicates that bearish momentum remains intact. Imbalance 24 is the only relevant technical pattern at present and could be tested in the near term. The liquidity sweep above 1.1270, combined with strong US labor market data, triggered further selling pressure on the euro. Buyers can now only look for another liquidity sweep below the recent lows.

Friday's economic data provided sellers with another opportunity to increase pressure on the euro, and they took full advantage of it. Nonfarm Payrolls exceeded market expectations, while the unemployment rate declined, contrary to forecasts. The remaining economic indicators are less relevant, as these two reports largely determined market sentiment at the end of the week.

Buyers still have numerous reasons to consider further gains in 2026. From a structural and broader perspective, Trump's policies, which contributed to the significant depreciation of the dollar last year, have not fundamentally changed. At present, there are no convincing factors providing substantial support for the US currency, despite the FOMC's hawkish stance. However, market sentiment does not change easily or quickly.

Economic Calendar for the US and the European Union:

• Germany – Trade Balance (07:00 UTC).

On November 9, the economic calendar contains only one event, which is unlikely to attract significant market attention. The economic news background is therefore unlikely to influence market sentiment on Monday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

In this analysis, the pair is still considered to be in the process of forming a bullish trend that has entered a corrective phase lasting an entire year. The fundamental background shifted sharply in favor of sellers eight months ago, but the broader trend, which has been developing for four years, cannot yet be considered invalidated or complete. Buyers could resume their advance before the end of the year, but their current technical opportunities are limited to the low of 1.1066 established in June last year and the low of 1.1105 established two weeks ago. As for sellers, following Friday's sharp decline in the euro, they may now look for a new bearish imbalance to form. However, the current sideways movement also needs to come to an end. Otherwise, the price could once again sweep liquidity below the recent low and quickly return to Imbalance 24.

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GBP/USD continues to advance within its annual trading range. At the end of the week, strong US labor market data triggered a sharp counterattack by sellers, but they encountered Bullish Imbalance 32. Yesterday, it was noted that a corrective pullback could actually be a favorable development for buyers, as it would provide an opportunity to open new long positions. Today's price action has confirmed this outlook. Sellers are unlikely to have enough momentum to break through Imbalance 32 today. The bullish impulse within the trading range remains intact, and the target around 1.3670 has yet to be reached. Therefore, under the current circumstances, a buy signal is expected to form within Imbalance 32, potentially followed by another advance in the pound next week. Naturally, changes in the news background may affect traders' plans, but future developments cannot be predicted with certainty. At present, buyers retain excellent prospects for further gains.

This week, the Bank of England implemented its first monetary policy tightening measure, which generally supports bullish sentiment among traders. The market reaction to this decidedly hawkish development was rather mixed. Buyers did not resume their advance, even though the outcome of the Bank of England meeting could be considered the most hawkish possible. The Bank of England not only raised interest rates as expected, but its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) also voted unanimously to tighten monetary policy. This provides grounds to expect further policy tightening, potentially as early as December. Thus, the dollar dominated the final trading sessions of this week, but the pound could gain the upper hand over the next several weeks.

Another important factor supporting the pound's outlook is that traders expect the Bank of England to implement at least three monetary policy tightening measures in total, compared with just one or, at most, two expected from the Fed. Naturally, the course of events in 2027 remains uncertain, but this is currently the prevailing market expectation. Consequently, the Bank of England may ultimately raise interest rates more aggressively than the Fed over the coming months, which is unlikely to support further gains in the US currency. In the near term, only geopolitical developments could provide additional support for the dollar, particularly if Donald Trump decides to resume military operations against Iran. It is also important not to draw direct parallels between the euro and the pound at this stage. These two currencies have recently been trading quite differently, even though they usually exhibit a strong correlation.

Do sellers have any prospects? In my view, their potential is limited. Over the past two months, sellers have pushed the dollar to the highest levels within the trading range. It is worth remembering that the market has repeatedly had compelling reasons to buy the dollar in 2026. However, there have also been reasons for the pound to strengthen, which traders have frequently overlooked. Thus, unlike the euro, the dollar and the pound have generally followed a logical pattern throughout the year, with alternating periods of appreciation and depreciation that collectively form a trading range.

The economic news released on Friday provided sellers with an opportunity to launch an attack, but this move is unlikely to be sufficient to reverse the bullish impulse. The Nonfarm Payrolls report and unemployment rate both showed strong figures, allowing the Fed to continue monetary policy tightening with greater confidence. However, as already mentioned, the Bank of England is also expected to raise interest rates, meaning that the dollar does not have a clear advantage. It received substantial market support today, but further gains will require additional convincing reasons and supporting factors. Whether such factors emerge will become clear next week.

The overall fundamental picture remains such that, in the long term, further weakness in the US dollar appears to be the most likely scenario. The war between Iran and the United States has not changed this outlook. Geopolitical developments prompted the market to reconsider the dollar's safe-haven status for several months, but the conflict is currently on hold. Therefore, until hostilities resume, a new sustained advance by sellers is not expected. Unfortunately, further escalation remains possible, and media reports increasingly refer to the possibility of a "nuclear bomb" being used. According to some media reports, Trump could consider using nuclear weapons to secure Iran's unconditional surrender. It can only be hoped that these reports are inaccurate.

Economic Calendar for the US and the UK:

On November 9, the economic calendar contains no significant events. The economic news background is therefore unlikely to influence market sentiment on Monday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish. Buyers have controlled market momentum in recent weeks, although only within the trading range, which is clearly visible on the daily chart and remains intact. The liquidity sweep below the June lows allowed buyers to regain control. Therefore, the short-term market structure is considered bullish. For traders, this means that existing long positions should be maintained for now, while new bullish signals should be considered for trading opportunities. A buy signal within Imbalance 32 could form as early as today or at the beginning of next week. The pound's targets remain near the upper boundary of the trading range at 1.3670.

We would like to inform you about changes in trading hours with InstaForex on September 7, 8, 30 and October 1, 2026.

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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Bitcoin is trading around $75,993, rebounding after coming very close to the psychological level of $75,000, which also coincides with the 4/8 Murray level.

Bitcoin could find strong support around $75,000, or, if downward pressure prevails, it could be expected to reach $74,200, which could be considered the lower band of the downtrend channel. However, we believe that Bitcoin has found strong support, and any pullback in the coming days could be viewed as a buying opportunity.

A Bitcoin recovery is likely in the coming days, and we believe it could return to $78,125 and eventually reach the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), around $80,228.

US employment data will be released in the coming hours, which could also affect the volatility of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. If there is a sharp drop toward $75,000 followed by a rebound around this level, it will be considered a buying opportunity.

Conversely, if there is a sharp move toward the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) or the Murray 5/8 line and the price struggles to break above this zone, we believe this could be interpreted as a negative signal, and Bitcoin could resume its downtrend and trade below $78,125.

The Eagle indicator is approaching oversold levels, and we believe Bitcoin could rebound in the coming days; therefore, as long as the price remains above the psychological level of $75,000, any pullback will be viewed as a buying opportunity.

Under the renewed contract, InstaForex retains its status as the club's official partner. The company's logo will continue to adorn the ice arena and the team's uniforms, while Peter Jandura, the broker's representative in Slovakia, will continue to attend matches in Zvolen in person and support the team from the stands.

The new Tipsport Liga season for Zvolen kicks off on September 15, 2026. In the opening round, the team will play an away match against Banská Bystrica, launching their campaign for championship points.

Meanwhile, Zvolen is actively preparing for the season under head coach Marek Zadina. Preparations are proceeding as scheduled—all players are healthy and fit, and the team is training injury-free.

Changes have also affected the coaching staff. Former Latvian national team player Jānis Andersons has joined the staff, while Jozef Budaj is currently combining his club duties with responsibilities for the Slovak U18 national team.

The roster is also being gradually finalized. Goaltender Lukáš Klimeš and defenseman Gianni Fairbrother have already joined training, with forwards Brooklyn Kalmikov, Sean Josling, and center Cole Cassels expected to arrive in the coming days.

Ahead for Zvolen are fitness testing for players and their first home preseason exhibition game against Czech club Berani Zlín.

Crude oil is approaching resistance levels around the 5/8 Murray and could continue its rise slightly until it reaches the upper band of the downtrend channel at $91.30.

If crude oil faces rejection below $91 in the coming hours, this could be considered a negative signal, and we could look to sell below this zone, at $90 and $89, with the hope that it will ultimately reach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around $88.

Technically, oil could continue to fall, as it remains within the downtrend channel; as long as the price consolidates below the Murray 5/8 level at $90.62, strong downward pressure could persist, and we could open short positions below this zone.

An opportunity to open long positions in crude oil would be to wait for the price to rebound above the Murray 4/8 level, around $87.50. This level, which also constitutes strong support, could provide us with a buying opportunity, and we could expect the price to reach the psychological level of $90.

The US nonfarm payrolls will have a direct impact today. I warn you to brace for high volatility in crude oil prices in the coming hours. Therefore, as long as the price remains above the 4/8 Murray level or pulls back toward this area, we will look to buy. Conversely, if the price reaches the 21-day SMA around $92.53 or the 6/8 Murray level around $93.75, it will be considered a sell signal.

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Gold is trading around $4,061 after reaching a high of $4,145, which coincided with the upper band of the downtrend channel.

From a technical perspective, we expect gold to resume its uptrend and move closer to the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), currently at $4,113.

If gold tests the Murray 6/8 level and consolidates above this zone in the coming hours, it could be interpreted as a positive signal to buy above $4,062, with targets at $4,120.

A decisive break above the uptrend channel and consolidation above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) could change the outlook for gold, and we could expect it to reach the Murray 3/8 level, around $4,218.

On the other hand, given that US nonfarm payrolls will be released during the US trading session, we expect this to impact gold; we could see it retest the strong resistance levels of $4,120 or $4,145. If gold fails to break above this zone, it could be interpreted as a sell signal; conversely, if gold falls below $4,062, it could reach the psychological level of $4,000.

One opportunity to sell XAU/USD would be to wait for gold to reach the upper band of the downtrend channel before opening short positions; conversely, a good point to open long positions would be to wait for the price to continue falling until it finds solid support around the daily S_2 or S_3 levels, located at $3,980.

The Eagle indicator has reached extremely overbought levels. From a technical perspective, a technical bounce from the Murray 6/8 level toward $4,120 or $4,218 could be considered a signal to open short positions in the coming days.

Importantly, gold left a gap around $3,873. From a technical perspective, we believe it could return to that level in the coming days if the price falls below the psychological level of $4,000.

We would like to inform you about changes in trading hours with InstaForex on July 2-3, 2026

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The euro is trading around 1.1208 under downward pressure, below the Murray 4/8 line, the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA), and the 21-period simple moving average (SMA). As we noted in our previous analysis, the euro failed to break above the 200-period EMA; technically, it is under selling pressure.

On the H4 chart, we can see that the euro is breaking out of the uptrend channel formed since October 28. If EUR/USD consolidates below 1.1217 in the coming hours, this will be considered a sell signal, and we expect it to continue falling to 1.1160, then to 1.1135, and finally to 1.1108.

Conversely, if a pullback occurs toward 1.1230 or 1.1258, this price reaction could be interpreted as an opportunity to sell, since, technically, the price is at resistance levels, and we believe this brief recovery could be seen as an opportunity to open short positions.

In the coming hours, the US nonfarm payrolls will be released. This employment report has a significant influence and directly affects the dollar; this could also trigger movements in the euro. Therefore, we believe that if the US data is positive, we could expect a strong upward move in the euro. We believe EUR/USD could reach 1.1231 or 1.1260.

In the meantime, we will look for opportunities to sell below the 21-period simple moving average (SMA) and will keep an eye on the data to be released in the coming hours, as we can expect a strong price reaction; from a technical standpoint, we anticipate that the euro will rebound again.

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Ethereum is trading around $2,235, rebounding after hitting a low very close to the Murray 6/8 zone, around $2,201. According to the H4 chart, it is consolidating above the Murray 6/8 level, which looks promising for a recovery in the cryptocurrency.

If ETH consolidates above the Murray 6/8 level at $2,187 in the coming hours, this will be considered a buying opportunity with targets at $2,310; ultimately, we expect it to reach the upper band of the downtrend channel formed since early October, around $2,398.

On November 4, Ethereum reached a strong resistance zone around the upper band of the downtrend channel. As the Eagle indicator entered the overbought zone, the price formed a symmetrical triangle pattern. On Thursday, there was a sharp drop during the US trading session, and the token is currently recovering; however, downward pressure could persist, so we should keep an eye on the Murray 6/8 zone.

A technical bounce above $2,187 will be considered a bullish signal. A break below this zone could cause Ethereum to continue falling, and we expect it to reach the lower band of the downtrend channel, around $2,100.

Since the Eagle indicator is reaching oversold levels, we will technically look for buying opportunities in the coming hours.

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The test of 158.00 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming the validity of the entry point for buying the yen. As a result, the pair rose toward the target level of 158.33.

Today's US labor market report will be particularly important for USD/JPY, as its impact on this pair is reflected through the interest rate differential. Japan released strong economic data this morning. Specifically, nominal wages increased by 4.6% in September, compared with the forecast of 3.8% and the previous month's reading of 3.9%. This brought wage growth back to the July level of 4.7%. These figures strengthen the case for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, whose current policy rate stands at 1.25%. At its previous meeting on October 30, the central bank maintained its policy stance in an 8–1 vote, but many economists expect a rate hike as early as December 17–18. The problem is that the gap between Japanese and US interest rates remains substantial. The Fed's rate currently stands at 3.75–4.00%, exceeding Japan's rate by 2.5–2.75 percentage points. Even if the Fed raises rates to 4.00–4.25% in December, the differential will remain significant. This gap continues to support demand for dollar-denominated assets, and Japan has yet to catch up with the United States in this regard. If the US employment report is strong, with job growth exceeding 65,000 and wage growth reaching 0.3%, expectations of further Fed rate hikes will strengthen. Treasury yields will rise, providing support for USD/JPY and potentially pushing it closer to the psychologically important 160.00 level, where the market has come to expect a response from Japanese authorities. A weak report would have the opposite effect, bringing the scenario of a December rate hike by the Bank of Japan to the forefront and potentially supporting the yen. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is scheduled to speak in the evening, and his comments on the pace of monetary policy normalization could also influence the pair.

As for the intraday strategy, the focus will be primarily on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: USD/JPY can be bought today when the price reaches the entry level around 158.49 (the green line on the chart), with a target of reaching 158.86 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.86, the long position will be closed and a short position will be opened, targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from that level. The pair can be expected to rise today only if US economic data is strong. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: USD/JPY can also be bought today if the price tests 158.23 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. The pair can be expected to rise toward the opposite levels of 158.49 and 158.86.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: USD/JPY can be sold today after the price breaks below 158.23 (the red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The sellers' main target will be 157.87, where the short position will be closed and a long position will be opened immediately, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from that level. Selling pressure on the pair could return today if the central bank intervenes. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2: USD/JPY can also be sold today if the price tests 158.49 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. The pair can be expected to decline toward the opposite levels of 158.23 and 157.87.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further gains above this level are unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further declines below this level are unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold areas.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is generally best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be lost very quickly, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.

It is also important to remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Please note that trading in metals, futures, and indices will be closed on April 3, 2026.

The test of 1.3420 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line. Therefore, selling the pound was considered too risky, and the entire move in the pair was missed.

The dollar is currently receiving strong support, and today's employment report could provide a new bullish impulse. On the one hand, the Democrats' victory in the elections and declining US Treasury yields are supporting the US currency. On the other hand, the Fed maintains a hawkish stance. Beth Hammack stated the previous day that monetary policy would need to shift toward a restrictive stance, while the market is pricing in a rate hike in December and another one in March. The labor market will be the decisive factor. If nonfarm payroll growth comes in close to or above the forecast of 65,000, while average hourly earnings increase by 0.3%, the Fed will have little reason to pause its tightening cycle. Treasury yields will rise, and the dollar will recover its previous losses. In this case, risk-sensitive assets will continue to decline. Conversely, a weak report would support expectations of an economic slowdown and give the pound an opportunity to recover. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will provide an additional indication of economic conditions. Given the current balance of factors, the dollar is likely to remain in a stronger position, as there are currently few indications that the economic data will be weak.

As for the intraday strategy, the focus will be primarily on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: The pound can be bought today when the price reaches the entry level around 1.3395 (the green line on the chart), with a target of reaching 1.3423 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3423, the long position will be closed and a short position will be opened, targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from that level. The pound could rise today if US economic data is weaker than expected. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: The pound can also be bought today if the price tests 1.3373 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. The pair can be expected to rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3395 and 1.3373.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: The pound can be sold today after the price breaks below 1.3373 (the red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The sellers' main target will be 1.3348, where the short position will be closed and a long position will be opened immediately, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from that level. Strong selling pressure on the pound will return if US economic data is strong. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2: The pound can also be sold today if the price tests 1.3395 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. The pair can be expected to decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3373 and 1.3348.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further gains above this level are unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further declines below this level are unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold areas.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is generally best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be lost very quickly, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.

It is also important to remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

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The test of 1.1182 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, confirming that the entry point for selling the euro was appropriate. As a result, the pair declined by only 10 points.

The market is preparing for economic data that could determine sentiment toward the dollar in the near term. All attention is focused today on the US labor market report, which is expected to show a significantly better result than a month earlier. In September, job growth was very weak, with only 29,000 jobs added compared with the expected 84,000. At that time, the market immediately reduced its expectations of a Fed rate hike in October, and the dollar lost some of its support. The current forecast points to a recovery, and if this materializes, September's weakness will appear to have been temporary. Average hourly earnings are equally important. Wage growth leads to higher incomes and, consequently, stronger demand, which adds to inflationary pressures. This is why the Fed closely monitors this indicator when deciding whether to raise interest rates further. If wage growth exceeds expectations, expectations of a rate hike in December will strengthen. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will provide additional insight into the overall picture by showing how confident US consumers feel amid high prices. Strong data will restore demand for the dollar, increasing pressure on risk-sensitive assets. The euro, which has faced difficulties in recent days, will come under renewed pressure.

As for the intraday strategy, the focus will be primarily on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: The euro can be bought today when the price reaches the level around 1.1182 (the green line on the chart), with a target of reaching 1.1218. At 1.1218, the position will be closed, and the euro will also be sold in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. The euro can be expected to rise today if US economic data is weaker than expected. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: The euro will also be bought today if the price tests 1.1159 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. The pair can be expected to rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1182 and 1.1218.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: The euro will be sold after the price reaches 1.1159 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1124, where the position will be closed and a position in the opposite direction will be opened immediately (targeting a 20–25-point move in the opposite direction from that level). Selling pressure on the pair will return if economic data is stronger than expected. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2: The euro will also be sold today if the price tests 1.1182 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. The pair can be expected to decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1159 and 1.1124.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further gains above this level are unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further declines below this level are unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold areas.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is generally best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be lost very quickly, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.

It is also important to remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

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Technical Analysis and Price Action

Price Channel Structure: The price has clearly broken out of a previous descending channel (marked in blue), which had pressured it toward a low in the 86.35–86.95 range. Subsequently, the price staged a strong rebound, establishing an upward trajectory within a steep, secondary ascending channel (marked in pink/red). Despite temporary corrective pullbacks, the price is consistently attempting to hold its position above the median line of this ascending channel.

Interaction with Pivot Levels: During its recent upward surge, the price broke through the daily pivot point at 89.39, targeting the area near the first daily resistance level (Daily R1) at 92.13. Although a recent short-term corrective pullback pushed the price back toward the lower boundary of the ascending channel, it currently remains supported above the daily pivot, keeping the potential for a continued positive trend intact.

Key Support and Resistance Levels Key Resistance Levels:

First Resistance: 92.13 (Daily R1 and the most recent intraday high).

Second Resistance: 93.77 (Daily R2).

Pivotal Resistance: 96.51 (Daily R3 and the upper boundary of the broken descending channel).

Key Support Levels:

First Support: 89.39 (Daily Pivot point and current pivotal level).

Second Support: 87.75 – 87.60 (Daily S1 and a nearby local low).

Pivotal Support: 86.35 and below (the most recent major low and the lower boundary of the price range).

Price Action Outlook and Trading Recommendations:

Bullish Scenario (Primary):

A positive outlook is favored for the intraday timeframe, provided the price remains stable above the daily pivot point of 89.39 and above the boundaries of the newly formed ascending channel.

Recommendation: Consider long positions (buying) if the price holds above 89.39, or upon a corrective pullback toward the 90.00 level.

Technical Targets: A retest of the first daily resistance at 92.13, followed by an extension toward 93.77.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative):

This scenario is triggered if selling pressure returns and the price fails to hold above the daily pivot point, shifting the trend back to the downside.

Confirmation Condition: A clear hourly candle close below the 89.39 level. Technical Objectives: A pullback to target the first daily support level at 87.75, followed by a test of the major low at 86.35.

Risk Management

Trading in crude oil markets requires adherence to strict capital management rules, given the rapid volatility and shifts in price momentum. Risk per trade should be capped at a maximum of 2%, and stop-loss orders must be precisely implemented to protect the portfolio.

Price Action on the Crude Oil Daily Chart:

The price is currently trading at the 90.54 level within an ascending channel on the daily timeframe. It has experienced a sharp decline and selling pressure, pushing it below the monthly pivot point at 100.05, as well as the first monthly support level (Monthly S1) at 89.59.

Analysis of the Last Two Candles (Yesterday's and Today's):

Yesterday's Candle: Reflected a steep decline and strong selling momentum, which led to a breakdown through the median lines and sub-channels, driving the price toward nearby support zones.

Today's Candle: Shows signs of slight consolidation, with trading stabilizing near the 90.54 level, though negative pressure remains dominant.

Outlook for Future Movement:

Bearish Scenario (Primary): This remains the most likely outcome as long as the price stays below the monthly pivot point and key resistance levels. The decline could potentially continue, targeting the next support level at 76.41 (Monthly S2).

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): This would be triggered if the price manages to establish a support base and regain buying momentum, allowing it to climb back above the first monthly support level and test nearby resistance levels.

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Nasdaq Composite capitalisation losses

The Nasdaq Composite recorded the biggest market-cap loss in its history, led by chipmakers after disappointing profit outlooks and worries that Democratic control of Congress will bring tougher regulation of the AI industry. The sell-off spilled into risky assets as if someone pulled the support out from under the whole tech sector. Bitcoin fell into the $76,000 area — a September low — posting its steepest one-day drop in five months. Ether plunged alongside it.

A lingering negative for Bitcoin is that the market has yet to recover from the record $6.3 billion Binance hack and fading retail enthusiasm. Volatility in tech stocks added pressure, although a decline in Treasury yields would normally support speculative assets in a different scenario, so that factor's net effect is ambiguous.

Stock-market volatility dynamics

Investor anxiety that Democratic control of Congress will choke off industry-friendly legislation and impose tougher oversight on digital-asset firms also weighs on BTC/USD. Broader macro effects are unclear. Political gridlock could limit fiscal stimulus and depress speculative assets, while falling Treasury yields might eventually ease financial conditions in their favour.

In the days after the Binance hack, investors pulled $1 billion from spot Bitcoin ETFs, Bloomberg data show, with capital leaking from funds like water through a crack in a dam. BlackRock's IBIT was hit hardest, losing about $900 million.

The on-chain picture has changed, too. A month ago, almost all coins held by short-term holders (bought in the past 155 days) were in profit, like a bountiful harvest. That share has collapsed. Glassnode notes that most holders of those coins are now underwater.

One support factor for Bitcoin remains its integration into the traditional financial system. Glassnode argues that Democrats taking Congress is unlikely to dramatically shake market sentiment because Bitcoin is much more embedded in the broader financial system than in previous cycles — with banks, asset managers and ETFs on board.

Bitcoin long promised to remain detached from legacy markets, but this time, it could not hide.

Technically, the BTC/USD daily chart shows a long-bodied bar and a rejection at the moving averages. These are bearish signals that support maintaining short positions. Targets lie at $71,600 and $69,400.

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As of Friday, gold prices (XAU/USD), after declining during the Asian session, have returned to Thursday's trading range. Quotes fell below the $4050 level amid a moderate strengthening of the US dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US currency against a basket of other currencies, continued to recover after reaching its lowest level since late September on Thursday. This put pressure on gold. At the same time, further declines have been limited as traders prefer to wait for the release of key US labor market data before opening large positions in either direction.The October US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to show that the economy added 65 thousand jobs, up from 29 thousand in the previous month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%. Investors will also monitor changes in average hourly earnings, as wage growth could have a significant impact on expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future policy decisions. Overall, the release of these key macroeconomic indicators could increase volatility in financial markets and affect demand for the US dollar, in turn providing additional momentum for gold price movements.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party's victory in the US midterm elections has heightened concerns that the development of the artificial intelligence sector could slow. Against this backdrop, Wall Street prices fell sharply on Thursday, while demand for traditional safe-haven assets, including US Treasury bonds, increased. However, the subsequent substantial rise in oil prices has renewed inflation concerns. In addition, traders continue to assign a probability of approximately 70% to a Fed rate hike at its December meeting. This limits the potential for further declines in US Treasury yields following their midweek drop and supports the dollar.The geopolitical risk premium also remains in place amid uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's next steps. On Thursday, he stated that the United States might have to "destroy the rest of Iran," adding that it would soon become clear whether he would take any action. Disagreements between the United States and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz also remain unresolved. These factors support the dollar as a safe-haven asset and, consequently, put pressure on gold. Despite this, the precious metal appears likely to end the week higher for the first time in three weeks and is holding firmly above the psychologically important $4000 level.From a technical perspective, XAU/USD maintains a positive short-term bias, trading above the 20-day SMA. However, an intraday decline below the 20-day SMA should prompt caution among bulls. Oscillators remain in negative territory, confirming the advantage held by bears. The nearest resistance is located just above the round $4100 level. A sustained move above this mark would create conditions for a test of yesterday's high near $4155. Support is provided by the convergence of the 9-day and 14-day EMAs. The round $4000 level offers further support below.

The table below shows the percentage change in the US dollar against the specified major currencies today. The dollar has recorded its largest gain against the New Zealand dollar.

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On Friday, the euro continued to decline for the second consecutive day. The US dollar remained in strong demand as risk appetite weakened following the sell-off in equity markets, which particularly affected the technology sector. During the European session, EUR/USD traded between 1.1180 and 1.1200, retreating from Thursday's highs near 1.1270. The positive German industrial production data released today failed to support the European currency.

According to the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, industrial production increased by 0.7% in September. The figure exceeded market expectations, which had pointed to no change, and was higher than August's 0.1% increase. The improvement was mainly driven by the automotive and pharmaceutical industries. At the same time, declines were recorded in construction and the production of machinery and equipment.

Later on Friday, Eurostat will release September retail sales data for the eurozone. Analysts expect the indicator to decline by 0.1%, offsetting an increase of the same magnitude in August. Unless the data deliver an unexpectedly positive surprise, they are unlikely to provide significant support for the euro.

The US dollar, traditionally regarded by investors as a safe-haven asset, is benefiting from falling equity markets. The sell-off is linked to growing concerns about the artificial intelligence (AI) sector. Shares of US and Asian chipmakers fell sharply as investors became concerned that a Democratic victory in the United States could lead to tighter regulation and the abandonment of plans to build data centers. OCBC strategists note that the combination of resilient US economic growth, persistent inflation, and the Federal Reserve's commitment to further monetary policy tightening continues to favor the dollar overall.

Today, the October Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, due later during the North American session, is the main focus for identifying trading opportunities. Labor market data released earlier this week were strong: initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level in almost four months, ADP employment growth significantly exceeded forecasts, and the JOLTS report showed a sharp increase in job openings in September. If the NFP report confirms this picture, the dollar could receive additional support.

From a technical perspective, the pair remains under selling pressure, as indicated by negative oscillators and its recent failure to hold above the 20-day SMA. The pair is also trading below all key moving averages, further confirming bearish pressure. Selling pressure may ease somewhat if the pair consolidates above the 20-day SMA. The next resistance level is Thursday's high near 1.1270. Support is provided by the 1.1180–1.1150 level. The next major support level is 1.1100, below which the pair could accelerate its decline.

The table below shows how the euro has performed against the major currencies today. The euro has been weakest against the US dollar.

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The key factor that triggered the sell-off is that the market priced out a wartime premium after the Democrats won the midterms. The president is signaling restraint, and Democratic control of both chambers of Congress could limit his ability to expand military action. Recall that on November 4, he said he was "ready to fight," but political constraints may remove the justification for a strike.

Hopes of a near-term end to the conflict are rising, but deep disagreements remain. Iran demands an end to the US maritime blockade, sanctions relief, and the unfreezing of assets before fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz. US outlets report that Tehran is reviewing mediators' proposals on its nuclear program, and Qatar's shuttle diplomacy is intensifying. The frozen assets issue is not new — on October 21, reports surfaced about an interest-bearing arrangement for $6 billion in Qatari banks — but today, the political weakness of Washington is a new element.

Meanwhile, the physical market is softening. Gulf crude exports continue despite frequent attacks on vessels in Hormuz, and Saudi Arabia has cut prices for Asian buyers even though Asian margins are at six-year lows. Producers are now competing for market share; Asian refiners and importers benefit, while exporters lose out on price, not volume.

The price path matters for central banks. If oil climbs back toward the highs, the Bank of England will be closer to a second hike, in Andrew Bailey's words, and the Fed, already weighing a December move, would have another reason to tighten. That is why Brent's $19-range swings ripple through FX: expensive oil supports the dollar and pressures the pound and euro.

I believe the market is paying not for actual supply shortfalls, which are not currently the problem, but for the White House's decision. With Trump weighing a strike versus a deal and Tehran making unacceptable demands, any report from Axios or similar outlets can swing prices by 3–4%. I expect Brent to trade around $100 in the near term, with risk of sudden moves both ways. Only a real agreement to secure Hormuz would produce a sustained downtrend.

Technically, the immediate task for buyers is to reclaim resistance at $92. That would open a target near $95, above which progress becomes more difficult. The next target is around $98. On the downside, bears aim to take control at $89. A break below that level would be a serious blow to bulls and could drive oil to $87, with a further target near $84.

Due to sustained high market volatility, we are implementing the following modifications to ensure a stable trading environment and to support responsible risk management:

1. Adjustment of Swap Points

During periods of rapid price fluctuations, the costs associated with maintaining open positions overnight (swaps) may change. These adjustments result from heightened liquidity risks and higher financing costs currently present in global markets.

2. Revision of Leverage Limits

To protect our clients' capital from the effects of increased market volatility, we are reducing the maximum leverage for selected metals.

Why this is important: Lower leverage increases the margin required to maintain a position, serving as a safety buffer in the event of price gaps.

Required Action: Please review your open positions and ensure your account balance is sufficient to cover the updated margin requirements.

Note: The above changes are precautionary measures aimed at protecting your capital during unpredictable market cycles. We encourage you to monitor your account status closely and utilize risk management tools, such as Stop-Loss orders.

We appreciate your understanding and continued cooperation.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains bearish. The latest completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the latest upward wave failed to break above the previous high. Following the September FOMC meeting, traders have been expecting at least one more monetary policy tightening before the end of the year and another one next year. This factor continues to provide substantial support for the US dollar, while traders consider other factors secondary.

There was no significant economic news on Thursday, but the currency market had plenty of developments to assess. First, traders reassessed their initial interpretation of the US election results and concluded that the change in the balance of power in Congress could benefit the US dollar. At the very least, the Democrats' victory in the congressional elections is not necessarily negative for the dollar. As a result, the US currency resumed its appreciation.

Overnight, it became known that Donald Trump is still considering the possibility of completely destroying Iran. This would increase geopolitical tensions, which had only recently eased following conciliatory statements from Democrats. However, as developments suggest, Trump has no intention of ending the conflict because of the election losses. Oil prices are rising again, while the US dollar is benefiting from demand for safe-haven assets.

Today, the United States will also release important Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment reports, which will indicate whether September's disappointing figures were an isolated occurrence. The US dollar's appreciation ahead of these releases suggests that the market is anticipating positive results. However, forecasts indicate that neither report is likely to show particularly encouraging figures. The dollar could weaken in the second half of the day.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the US dollar after the CCI indicator formed a second bearish divergence. Consolidation below the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1221 supports the prospect of further declines toward the 161.8% retracement level at 1.1088. No new emerging divergences are currently visible.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 4,225 Long positions and 13,595 Short positions. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 231,000, while the number of Short positions amounts to 374,000. Bears remain in control, and the euro continues to be sold more frequently than it is bought. This is attributable to the challenging geopolitical situation in the Middle East and Kevin Warsh's intention to bring inflation down. The market believes that the Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates for as long as necessary.

Overall, major market participants continue to show considerable interest in the euro over the long term. Naturally, various global developments, which have been particularly numerous in recent years, influence investor sentiment and put pressure on risk-sensitive currencies. Furthermore, 2026 could set a record for the number of unexpected events. Therefore, the European currency is waiting for more favorable conditions.

US and Eurozone Economic Calendar

• Germany – Change in Industrial Production (07:00 UTC).
• Eurozone – Change in Retail Sales (10:00 UTC).
• United States – Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (13:30 UTC).
• United States – Unemployment Rate (13:30 UTC).
• United States – Change in Average Hourly Earnings (13:30 UTC).
• United States – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (15:00 UTC).

On November 6, the economic calendar contains six releases, at least two of which are particularly important. Economic data could have a significant impact on market sentiment on Friday, particularly during the second half of the day.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations

Buying opportunities may arise today if the pair reverses near either of the two most recent swing points on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1220 and 1.1270. Selling opportunities emerged after the pair closed below 1.1220, with the 1.1081–1.1086 support level as the target. These short positions can remain open.

The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.1325 to 1.1712 on both the hourly and 4-hour charts.

Another year is coming to an end, leaving us with valuable baggage: experience, confidence, new knowledge, and moments to be proud of. The year 2025 has been diverse — sometimes generous with discoveries and sometimes demanding in efforts, but it has undoubtedly marked an important step forward for each of us.

We are sincerely grateful to you for being by our side throughout this year, for trusting us, and for choosing us as your partner in the world of financial solutions.

For your confidence, we developed our service, expanded capabilities, and made the platform more convenient and reliable. We will continue to do so in the new year — with even greater inspiration.

The year 2026 is already at the doorstep, filled with blank pages — opportunities just waiting for their time. May this year become a time for bold goals, confident decisions, and successful steps that lead you to your dreams. May your work bring you joy, your trades result in profits, and each day fill you with happiness and a sense of progress.

We wholeheartedly wish you health, inner peace, energy, and the support of loved ones. May the New Year bring warmth, a festive atmosphere, and countless happy moments that you will cherish.

Happy New Year 2026!

With best wishes, InstaForex

The market situation remains bullish. The latest completed downward wave failed to break below the previous low, while the latest upward wave broke above the previous high. Thus, the bulls continue to control the market. The market has already priced in further FOMC monetary policy tightening in the near term, while the Bank of England's tightening cycle is only beginning. A renewed upward move in the pound is expected after the corrective pullback is complete.

The fundamental background on Thursday allowed bullish traders to continue their strong advance. However, it became clear that the hawkish outcome of the Bank of England meeting had already been priced in by the market. Consequently, the interest rate hike did not trigger another rally in the pound. Moreover, the pound is declining quite sharply on Friday, as the market is once again concerned about a possible resumption of hostilities in the Middle East and strong US labor market data. There are reasons to question whether the labor market and unemployment reports will actually be strong. However, the conflict in the Middle East could indeed resume in the near future, as Donald Trump can still make decisions about military operations without seeking approval from Congress. Congress will undoubtedly attempt to block a war with Iran by passing the relevant legislation. However, Trump has veto power, which he can use to block any decisions made by Democrats. In my view, the likelihood of renewed hostilities is increasing again. The congressional elections have taken place, and Trump had intended to resume attacks on Iran afterward.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the 1.3469–1.3482 resistance level, reversed in favor of the US dollar, and declined to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3405. A rebound from this level would favor the pound and could lead to a recovery toward the 1.3469–1.3482 resistance level. Consolidation below 1.3405 would increase the likelihood of further declines toward the next Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% at 1.3342. No emerging divergences are currently visible on any of the indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became slightly less bearish over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators increased by 2,417, while the number of Short positions rose by 1,411. The gap between Long and Short positions currently stands at approximately 57,000 versus 136,000. The bears maintain a substantial advantage, which continues to widen over time. Previously, bearish dominance was unquestionable, but the situation has become less clear as the fundamental background has changed in recent months.

The bearish trend in the pound is still not considered convincing. However, developments in the near future will depend on Trump's trade policy, the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, as well as the duration, scale, and consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. In recent months, the market had shifted its expectations toward peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States collapsed before they had even properly begun. The war between the two countries could resume in full force as early as November.

US and UK Economic Calendar

• United States – Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (13:30 UTC).
• United States – Unemployment Rate (13:30 UTC).
• United States – Change in Average Hourly Earnings (13:30 UTC).
• United States – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (15:00 UTC).

On November 6, the economic calendar contains four events, with Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate being the most significant. The impact of economic data on market sentiment could be substantial on Friday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations

Selling opportunities emerged after a rebound from the 1.3454–1.3469 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3404 and 1.3342. The first target has been reached, and the positions can remain open. Buying opportunities may arise following a rebound from 1.3404, with a target of 1.3454–1.3469.

The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.3674 to 1.3136 on the hourly chart and from 1.3674 to 1.3137 on the 4-hour chart.

On this wonderful winter day, when the world seems to pause in anticipation of a miracle, we sincerely wish you true festive warmth. May your home be filled with comfort, harmony, and joy, and may every moment glow with the light that makes Christmas truly special.

May the scent of pine and the sparkle of lights bring long-awaited reunions, heartfelt conversations, and the feeling that the best is yet to come. We hope you find a peaceful escape from the daily hustle and bustle, and that your heart is filled with peace and inspiration.

We wish you confidence to pursue your goals, exciting achievements, and new horizons. Thank you for being part of our big InstaForex family — your support and trust make us stronger every day.

Merry Christmas!

Best wishes, InstaForex.

Adding to the pressure were concerns that Democratic control of Congress will bring tougher oversight of the AI sector. That hit tech stocks and, through them, crypto — which was already suffering from the Binance hack and cooling retail interest. Even falling Treasury yields, which normally support speculative assets, did not help this time.

It's clear Bitcoin doesn't depend on tech profits, but investors sell correlated risk positions when cutting risk exposure, and leveraged liquidations amplify the move. Losers include miners and crypto-exchange equities; winners were those who locked in profits earlier.

Technically, the picture has worsened. Bitcoin had been trading above the cost basis of short-term holders (CryptoQuant) at $75,832, but the price has now fallen below that level. A month ago, almost all coins bought in the past 155 days were in profit; now the majority are underwater. That means any rally toward purchase prices will meet sellers trying to exit at breakeven.

Views on the outlook diverge. Some see the drop as part of a general risk reduction and argue yesterday's rally should not have occurred. Others say the fall was driven by factors unrelated to Bitcoin's price cycle and fundamentals and expect long-term growth to resume once the market calms. I believe that until the tech sector stabilizes, Bitcoin will remain under pressure, and the ETF inflows on Wednesday were too weak to change that. In the coming days, I expect trading below $76,000, with bounces running into the $77,700–78,000 area — the cost basis of recent buyers.

Technical analysis and recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $76,900, which would open a direct path to $78,500 and then toward $79,900 — a break above which would signal attempts to restore the bull market. On the downside, buyers are expected at $75,300. A drop below that area could quickly push BTC toward $72,800. The next downside target would be around $71,100.

Ethereum

A clear hold above $2,241 would open a direct path to $2,312. The farther target is the $2,383 high; overcoming that level would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. On the downside, buyers are expected at $2,176. A return below that area could quickly push ETH toward $2,137. The next downside target would be around $2,084.

Chart notes:

• Red levels denote support and resistance points where price is expected to either stall or accelerate.
• Green shows the 50-day moving average.
• Blue shows the 100-day moving average.
• Light green shows the 200-day moving average.

Crosses of — or price tests of — these moving averages typically either stop the move or set a new market impulse.

We would like to inform you about changes in trading hours with InstaForex on December 24, 2025 - January 2, 2026

December 24, 2025

Early Close at 21:00:

• Forex

Early Close at 20:45:

Spot metals:

• GOLD
• SILVER

Futures Metals:

• #PLF
• #PAF
• #HG
• #GC
• #SI

Futures Energy:

• #XBZ
• #QM
• #CL
• #QG
• #NG
• #XRB
• #HO

Early Close at 20:00:

• CFD US Stocks

Early Close at 20:05:

Futures Agro:

• #ZW
• #ZS
• #ZL
• #ZM
• #ZC

Futures Goods:

• #LBS
• #JO
• #CT
• #CC
• #KC
• #SB

Early Close at 20:15:

Futures Agro:

• #HE
• #GF
• #LE

Indices:

#USDX - Early Close at 20:45.

#SPX - Early Close at 20:15.

#INDU - Early Close at 20:15.

#NDX - Early Close at 20:15.

#FTSE - Early Close at 14:50.

#N225 - Early Close at 20:15.

#HSI - Early Close at 06:00.

#DAX - Closed full day.

#SMI - Closed full day.

#SPAIN35 - Early Close at 15:00.

#AEX25 - Early Close at 15:00.

#ITALY40 - Closed full day.

#STOXX50 - Closed full day.

#ASX200 - Early Close at 05:30.

#FRANCE40 - Early Close at 15:00.

December 24, 2025 and January 1, 2026

Closed full day:

• Forex

Spot metals:

• GOLD
• SILVER
• CFD US Stocks

Futures Metals:

• #PLF
• #PAF
• #HG
• #GC
• #SI

Futures Energy:

• #XBZ
• #QM
• #CL
• #QG
• #NG
• #XRB
• #HO

Futures Agro:

• #ZW
• #ZS
• #ZL
• #ZM
• #ZC
• #HE
• #GF
• #LE

Futures Goods:

• #LBS
• #JO
• #CT
• #CC
• #KC
• #SB

Indices:

• #USDX
• #SPX
• #INDU
• #NDX
• #FTSE
• #N225
• #HSI
• #DAX
• #SMI
• #SPAIN35
• #AEX25
• #ITALY40
• #STOXX50
• #ASX200
• #FRANCE40

December 26, 2025

Closed full day:

Indices:

• #HSI
• #DAX
• #SMI
• #SPAIN35
• #AEX25
• #ITALY40
• #STOXX50
• #ASX200
• #FRANCE40

December 31, 2025

Closed full day:

Indices:

• #DAX
• #SMI
• #ITALY40
• #STOXX50

Early Close at 21:00:

• Forex
• CFD US Stocks

Spot metals:

• GOLD
• SILVER

Futures Metals:

• #PLF
• #PAF
• #HG
• #GC
• #SI

Futures Energy:

• #XBZ
• #QM
• #CL
• #QG
• #NG
• #XRB
• #HO

Futures Agro:

• #ZW
• #ZS
• #ZL
• #ZM
• #ZC
• #HE
• #GF
• #LE

Futures Goods:

• #LBS
• #CT

Indices:

#USDX - Early Close at 21:00.

#SPX - Early Close at 21:00.

#INDU - Early Close at 21:00.

#NDX - Early Close at 21:00.

#FTSE - Early Close at 14:50.

#N225 - Early Close at 21:00.

#HSI - Early Close at 06:00.

#DAX - Closed full day.

#SMI - Closed full day.

#SPAIN35 - Early Close at 15:00.

#AEX25 - Early Close at 15:00.

#ITALY40 - Closed full day.

#STOXX50 - Closed full day.

#ASX200 - Early Close at 05:30.

#FRANCE40 - Early Close at 15:00.

January 1, 2026

Opening at 16:30:

Futures Agro:

• #ZW
• #ZS
• #ZL
• #ZM
• #ZC
• #HE
• #GF
• #LE

Closed full day:

Indices:

• #SMI
• #ITALY40

Trading hours for other financial instruments remain unchanged. Please adjust your trading decisions for this information.

The company reserves the right to introduce other unspecified restrictions without prior notice.

Best regards,

InstaForex team

This is clearly a continuation of Thursday's rout, when the S&P 500 plunged 4.4% — the worst performance since the tariff shock in April 2025. The Nasdaq-100 dropped 6.4% and lost $2.3 trillion of market cap. It's the worst week for semiconductors since April last year. Remarkably fast was the shift in logic. As recently as Wednesday, investors were betting that a Democratic wave would speed the end of the Iran war, and tech giants added nearly $1 trillion on hopes that tighter rules on AI spending would ease pressure on cash flows. Now the market sees regulation as a threat to the entire chain from chipmakers to data-centre builders.

The causal chain looks like this. New Democratic Texas governor Gina Hinojosa called for an immediate moratorium on data-centre projects, and winning candidates in other states have echoed that demand. As a result, about 40% of planned US data-centre capacity sits in states where new governors have promised to halt or pause construction. The biggest losers are Nvidia, Qualcomm, and Arm — whose orders depend on build-out pace — and Korean memory manufacturers.

Winners so far are bonds and the dollar. China's 10-year yield fell to an intraday record low on safe-haven demand and excess liquidity; US Treasuries held Thursday's gains, and the dollar strengthened against all G10 currencies.

Oil adds contradictions. Brent rose 1.7% to $99.93/bbl after a 3.9% jump in the previous session. For context: on Wednesday it closed at $94.62, on Thursday morning it was about $93.6, last Monday it closed at $104.77, and at the end of October it had climbed toward $118. Hopes for a quick end to the Iran war after Republican setbacks were overwhelmed by panic around AI, and commodities are retracing some of the fall.

The Fed's main focus remains the US nonfarm payrolls. Consensus suggests that the US economy could have added 65,000 jobs (versus 29,000 in September), with an unemployment rate at near 4.18% versus an expected 4.2%. I believe the market is now reacting to political headlines faster than to measured estimates of real losses. But the risk to the chain is real: 40% of new projects depend on the decisions of incoming governors. All this implies continued volatility in markets and the tech sector in the coming sessions, with only partial rebounds, while the dollar and government bonds are likely to remain beneficiaries.

Technical outlook for S&P 500

Buyers' main task today is to overcome immediate resistance at 7,355. That would confirm upside and open the way to a push toward 7,381. Equally important for bulls is holding control above 7,404 to strengthen their positions. On a downside move amid falling risk appetite, buyers must step in around 7,328. A breach would quickly drive the instrument back to 7,300 and open the path to 7,279.

Revolution in trading conditions

In October 2025, InstaForex dramatically changed its trading conditions by introducing four types of accounts: Insta.Standard, Insta.Pro, Insta.Raw, and Insta.Zero.

The updated range of trading accounts offers traders access to the lowest spreads and commissions in the market. The market entry price with InstaForex is 30% lower than that of the nearest competitors. Trading should be convenient and profitable regardless of your experience. That is why we developed new types of accounts that combine minimal costs and flexible conditions for both beginners and experienced traders.

Get to know the InstaForex account range — choose the one that suits you perfectly.

Insta.Standard is the basic account type with no restrictions on the deposit size. It serves as a good tool for starting trading with micro amounts, although it does not provide access to the lowest spreads in the trading account range.

Insta.Pro is a commission-free account type. It allows you to see in real time the full market entry price, which is equal to the spread. It provides similar ultimate market entry price conditions as Insta.Raw and Insta.Zero.

Insta.Raw is an account with minimal spreads and a fixed commission per trade. It provides direct access to real market prices. Costs consist of two parts: the spread (the difference between the buying and selling price) and a commission of 4–5 USD per market lot for major trading instruments.

Insta.Zero is an account with zero spreads for major Forex currency pairs. The entire cost of the market entry price is included in the commission, which ranges from 4 to 5 USD per market lot depending on the trading pair. Detailed information can be found on this page of the official company website.

Risk control as a competitive advantage

All trading accounts utilize a special type of trading lot (Insta Lot), which is ten times smaller than a market lot and consists of 10,000 units of the traded currency. This ensures ten times more effective risk control compared to competitors. InstaForex remains ahead of competitors in this regard as well.

All key advantages remain

The new conditions have not affected access to key services:

• Loss insurance
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Why choose InstaForex?

The platform already has over 7 million traders from around the world. The company is chosen not only by individual investors but also by professionals and well-known brands, from sports teams to international stars. More than 300 instruments, modern technologies, and round-the-clock support make trading convenient and profitable.

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Stock?index dynamics

No sector of the S&P 500 closed in the green. The VIX volatility index recorded its sharpest spike since April 2025; fear now dominates the US stock market amid severe shocks to the AI industry. Fears that Democrats will put roadblocks in front of tech companies are compounded by concerns that colossal AI investments are not paying off.

Formally, the trigger for the S&P 500 sell-off was disappointing corporate results from Qualcomm, a long-time chip supplier for Apple. In reality, investors' nerves were wound so tight that one relatively small company became the butterfly that set off a storm. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged more than 12% — the second-worst daily drop in its history. NVIDIA's largest decline since January 2025 wiped out all the issuer's gains for the year.

S&P 500 dynamics and equal-weight ETF performance

A day earlier, there had been rotation in the stock market: divided government was seen as a boon for the economy, with investors selling tech and buying other sectors. On Thursday, everything changed. It became clear that restrictions on building and commissioning data centres will hurt not only chipmakers. They will negatively affect construction and industrial firms, banks that financed projects, and the tech giants that use the chips.

Not only markets but the real economy will suffer. It's no surprise that the Nasdaq Composite has entered a correction — its 11th in the past decade — and has entered a bear market five times over that period. A bear market here means a 20% decline from record highs.

What's next? Nobody wants to catch falling daggers while the Middle East conflict continues and the Fed keeps tightening policy. On the other hand, a statement by the new Texas governor that commissioning of data centres in 2027–2028 is not off the table suggests the underlying case may still hold. Is fear really that overblown?

Technically, a breakout strategy worked on the S&P 500 daily chart. A break below the trading range of 7,650–7,720 allowed traders to enter short positions. As long as the broad index remains below the pivot resistance at 7,460, it makes sense to keep the focus on selling.

We would like to inform you about changes in trading hours with InstaForex on November 27-28, 2025 due to Thanksgiving day and Black Friday.

November 27:

• Closed full day:

US Shares

#SB.z

#CC.z

#KC.z

#CT.z

#OJ.z

#Wheat.z

• Early Close 18:30

#BRENT.z

• Early Close 00:00 - 19:30, 23:00 - 00:00

GOLD.m

SILVER.m

XCUUSD.m

#CL.z

XPDUSD.m

XPTUSD.m

• Early Close 17:00

#LSU.z

• Early Close 00:00 - 18:00, 23:00 - 00:00

NASDAQ100.x

SPX500.x

November 28:

• Early Close 20:00

#BRENT.z

• Early Close 00:00 - 19:45

GOLD.m

SILVER.m

XCUUSD.m

#CL.z

XPDUSD.m

XPTUSD.m

#NG.z

• Early Close 13:00 - 18:30

#CT.z

• Early Close 13:00 - 18:00

#OJ.z

• Early Close 01:00 - 13:45, 14:30 - 18:05

#Wheat.z

• Early Close 17:00

#LSU.z

• Early Close 00:00 - 18:15

NASDAQ100.x

SPX500.x

The trigger was Thursday's acceleration of chipmakers' sell-off on worries about how a Democratic Congress will affect the AI sector. Some investors began selling gold to reduce risk and free up liquidity.

The contrast with earlier in the week is stark. On Wednesday morning, spot was around $3,942, then the metal jumped more than 3% on the day — the strongest daily gain since August — and on Thursday in Asia, the price reached roughly $4,140. The bet was simple: new politicians will fight inflation, much driven by the Iran conflict, and divided government will constrain Trump's fiscal agenda — meaning lower spending and borrowing. But that logic has two opposing implications. If inflation is under control, the Fed gains more room and rate pressure eases, which supports a non-yielding metal. At the same time, tighter fiscal expansion is theoretically less supportive for gold, which some investors buy as protection against unchecked government spending and deficits.

Then, the dollar kicked in. It strengthened on Thursday, enough to check gold since the metal is dollar-priced. On Friday, the pressure intensified: the dollar strengthened against all G10 currencies, whereas on Wednesday it was the weakest in the group. That benefits dollar holders and cash/bond investors, while leveraged gold holders are forced to cut positions to meet margin calls.

The key question is why the stock sell-off did not translate into the usual safe-haven bid for gold. The answer lies in rates. The market still prices a Fed hike in December, and another one in March, and high energy prices support inflation expectations. I think the pattern of the past two weeks is repeating: on October 22–23 gold was sold to raise liquidity; on October 30 it fell below $4,000 together with AI stocks, and now it is giving up gains again. The metal is acting as a source of cash to cover losses, not as a haven.

The next twist in the road depends on the US nonfarm payrolls. Consensus expects payrolls to rise by 65,000 after 29,000 in September. A weak print would be bearish for the dollar and Fed-hike expectations, which would support gold.

Technical view: buyers need to reclaim immediate resistance at $4,060. That would target $4,124, above which further gains will be difficult. The farther target is $4,192. On the downside, bears will try to take control of $4,000. A decisive break below that range would hit bulls hard and push gold toward $3,954, with a further extension to $3,906.

Affiliate Summit Dubai annually brings together key industry representatives from around the world — digital specialists, entrepreneurs, and marketers. This year's event set records in the number of participants, case studies reviewed, and the quality level of affiliate programs presented.

InstaForex participated in the summit as a Diamond Sponsor and introduced booth №15 to the business community, which became one of the main points of interest at the event. The company's managers held business discussions with potential and existing partners and presented exclusive cooperation terms and incentive programs.

One of the highlights was a presentation by an InstaForex analyst, focused on gold market analytics and current trends in affiliate program development, which attracted great interest from the audience. The expert shared fresh insights on the precious metals market and gave practical recommendations for increasing revenue within the affiliate model.

A significant recognition of InstaForex’s transparency and efficiency was the receipt of the “Lowest Spreads Leader” award, confirming that the company continues to offer some of the most favorable trading conditions in the financial market.

For InstaForex, participating in Affiliate Summit Dubai marked an important step in expanding its global affiliate network, seeking new strategic partnerships, and strengthening its position on the international stage.

The company thanks everyone who visited its booth for their engagement, trust, and interest in joint growth. InstaForex will continue to offer high-tech, reliable, and profitable solutions for a successful future to its clients and partners.

Together — to new heights!

Hammack also proposed a tactical shift. She prefers "more frequent, smaller adjustments where possible," arguing this approach reduces the risk that policy will lag and an inflationary mentality becomes entrenched. For markets, this implies 25-bp moves at multiple meetings rather than rare large jumps. Hammack was one of two Fed voters against leaving rates unchanged on October 28 (she and Lisa Cook dissented); the vote then was 10–2. Back in July, three members dissented—Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan—so Hammack's stance has not softened while her circle of supporters has narrowed.

Hammack's arguments rest on data. Inflation remains above target for nearly six years; pressures are broad-based and come from both demand and supply. Core PCE in September was 3.0%, and total PCE was 3.6%, versus the 2% goal. She also cited signs of labor market strength, consistent with yesterday's report showing initial jobless claims fell to 189,000 versus a 197,000 forecast. Taken together, labor and price data give the Fed little reason to pause.

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin yesterday also backed a gradual pace of hikes but declined to say how high policy will need to go. Traders now see a December hike and another in March as likely. That shifts the horizon: earlier the market discussed only a December move (probabilities around 67–75%, and about 85% on October 28); now two consecutive hikes are priced in, which would push the funds rate toward roughly 4.25–4.50%.

There is also a political context. Democrats won both chambers of Congress this week, which reduces the risk of direct White House pressure on rates, and Hammack used the moment to stress central bank independence. She argued the Fed has earned credibility as a data-driven institution rather than one swayed by short-term political forces, supporting the dollar's status. She also noted that dollar dominance rests on the rule of law, liquid markets, and central bank independence.

All this leads me to see no case for a December pause: a move to 4.00–4.25% remains the baseline. Continued hawkish Fed rhetoric will support the dollar. Today's jobs report (consensus +65,000) and speeches by Williams, Musalem, and Bowman will determine how confidently the market prices the March hike; if data are not weaker than forecast, I expect renewed pressure on the euro and the pound.

Technical picture for EUR/USD

Buyers should think about taking 1.1210. Only then would a test of 1.1245 be possible. From there a move to 1.1275 is attainable, but achieving that without support from major players will be difficult. On a decline, I expect substantial buying only around 1.1175. If there is nobody there, it would be sensible to wait for a fresh low at 1.1140 or to open longs from 1.1110.

Technical picture for GBP/USD

Pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3435. Only then would a move to 1.3460 be possible, above which further progress will be difficult. The furthest target is around 1.3485. On a drop, bears will try to seize control at 1.3405. If they succeed, a range break would inflict serious damage on bulls and push GBP/USD toward 1.3380 with a prospect of extension to 1.3355.

Our booth №15 became a hub of business activity: the InstaForex team held numerous consultations with potential partners, presented personalized offers and shared strategies for affiliate growth. Guests received exclusive cooperation conditions — a great foundation for long-term and mutually beneficial partnerships.

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A special recognition for our efforts came with the “Lowest Spreads Leader” award — a testament to InstaForex’s ongoing leadership and commitment to providing some of the most competitive trading conditions in the industry.

Affiliate Summit Dubai has been a key platform for strengthening existing partnerships and expanding InstaForex’s global affiliate network. We thank everyone who came to our booth and showed interest in our company.

Looking ahead — more events, innovative products and global initiatives. Join InstaForex and grow with an industry leader!

A chair's powers are materially broader than those of a committee minority leader. Warren would gain the authority to launch investigations, summon company executives to hearings, and oversee the financial industry. Trump-linked crypto projects, including World Liberty Financial—flagged by Democrats immediately after their victory—would likely come under scrutiny. Warren earlier asked regulators to pause consideration of that firm's bank licence application until Trump exits the business, and she warned that "we have never seen conflicts of this scale." Prediction markets could also attract attention because of potential insider trading.

Legislative consequences are no less serious. The Banking Committee plays a central role in advancing a crypto bill, and each procedural step can now be prolonged with hearings and requests for additional safeguards. CLARITY Act already failed a procedural Senate vote at 49–50, and now the bill faces a more hostile chair. That further erodes the already low odds of passage in the near term.

Democrats are preparing their own CLARITY alternative. It envisions separate supervision by the SEC and the CFTC, but with a larger SEC role and a narrower remit for the CFTC. That is a meaningful shift for the industry because the SEC traditionally treats tokens more aggressively and often classifies them as securities. The draft would also include restrictions on crypto activities by Trump and other federal officials. Republicans call the initiative political; a presidential veto—which cannot be overridden without a two-thirds majority—makes rapid passage unlikely.

The combination is damaging for markets: without a law there is no clarity for institutional capital, and with a tough chair the risk of investigations and high-profile hearings rises. Attracting fresh capital under such conditions is difficult, especially while ETF funds are bleeding money. I expect Bitcoin to remain under pressure until the tech sector stabilizes, and I see trading below $76,000 with a test of support at $73,800.

Bitcoin

The market trades in a narrow range between $75,000 and $75,800, and the plan is built around two mirror directions with full breakout and rejection scenarios. A buy is considered on a break above $75,800 if the price holds above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero; the target then lies at $77,200, where profits should be taken and a short on the pullback considered. If a downside break below $75,000 proves false and the price returns, buy from that level, targeting $75,800 and then $77,200.

Sell scenarios are mirrored. A confirmed break below $75,000, when the 50-day MA is above price and Awesome is below zero, opens a short toward $73,800. If a breakout above $75,800 fails to hold and the price is rejected, sell into the move to $75,000 and then lower to $73,800.

Ether

The logic mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale: range set by $2,210 (support) and $2,234 (resistance), with $2,067 below and $2,283 above as additional references. A buy is considered on a break above $2,234 provided the price is above the 50-day MA and Awesome is above zero, with a target of $2,283 where profits should be taken; alternatively, if a downside false break below $2,210 reverses, buy toward $2,234 and then $2,283.

A sell is opened on a confirmed break below $2,210 when the MA is above price and Awesome is below zero, targeting $2,067; or on a failed attempt to clear $2,234, targeting $2,210 and then $2,067. Both indicators are used as filters to discard false moves rather than standalone entry triggers; decisions are taken only after price has actually confirmed the indicated levels.

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The test of the 158.22 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the US dollar. As a result, the pair declined toward the target level of 157.94.

Japan reported encouraging wage data, but this may not be enough to support the yen. Nominal wages increased by 4.6% year over year in September, compared with analysts' expectations of 3.8%, while the previous month's growth stood at 3.9%. This result was significantly better than expected and brought the indicator back to July levels, when growth reached 4.7%. These figures are important for the Bank of Japan, as sustained income growth is expected to fuel inflation in the services sector, giving the central bank grounds to continue raising its interest rate, which currently stands at 1.25%. It is worth recalling that the Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged on October 30 following an 8-1 vote, while Hajime Takata called for an immediate rate hike. More than 80% of economists expect a rate increase at the December 17–18 meeting, and today's wage figures further strengthen this scenario.

However, the external environment remains challenging for the yen. Yesterday, US economic data once again supported the dollar. Weekly jobless claims came in at 189,000, compared with the forecast of 197,000. Labor productivity increased by 3.6% in the third quarter, against expectations of 2.8%, while hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve official Beth Hammack about the need for restrictive monetary policy further boosted demand for the US currency. The only concerning signal for the dollar was a 0.7% decline in unit labor costs, but the market barely reacted. Today's main test will be the US employment report, with job growth forecast at 65,000 compared with 29,000 in September. Later in the evening, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is also scheduled to speak.

In my view, the overall picture is mixed. Strong Japanese wage growth and expectations of a December rate hike provide solid support for the yen. However, as long as US economic data continue to exceed forecasts and the Federal Reserve maintains its hawkish stance, the yen will struggle to appreciate. If the employment report falls short of expectations, the yen will have an opportunity to recover some of its losses.

As for the intraday strategy, the focus will be primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, USD/JPY will be considered for buying when the price reaches the entry level around 158.00 (the green line on the chart), with an upward target of 158.33 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.33, the long position will be closed, and a short position will be opened in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35-point move from that level. It is preferable to resume buying the pair during corrective pullbacks and significant declines in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: USD/JPY will also be considered for buying today if the price tests the 157.83 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 158.00 and 158.33 can then be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, USD/JPY will be considered for selling only after the price breaks below the 157.83 level (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The sellers' main target will be 157.44, where the short position will be closed and a long position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move from that level. Sellers could return at any moment; all it would take is any indication from the central bank. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2: USD/JPY will also be considered for selling today if the price tests the 158.00 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 157.83 and 157.44 can then be expected.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further upside beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further downside beyond this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental data releases to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account balance can be lost very quickly, especially when trading large position sizes without proper money management.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

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Yesterday, the Bank of England did everything the market expected and even a little more. The interest rate was raised to 4.00%, with the voting results showing a unanimous 9-0-0 decision. This was the first unanimous decision in more than three years. Nevertheless, the pound remained weaker than the US dollar. The reason is that the rate hike had already been priced in, while the US currency received strong support. Initial jobless claims in the United States came in at 189,000, below the forecast of 197,000, while labor productivity increased by 3.6% in the third quarter, compared with expectations of 2.8%. These figures were accompanied by hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve official Beth Hammack about the need for restrictive monetary policy.

Today, the pound remains in the shadow of the US dollar. During the first half of the day, the only scheduled releases are the Lloyds house price index, which is unlikely to change much based on the forecast, and a speech by Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Huw Pill. No new signals are expected from him, as his hawkish stance is already well known to the market. Yesterday's hawkish tone from Bailey also showed that even confident remarks from the central bank governor are currently insufficient to generate interest in the pound. In my view, under these circumstances, UK news simply cannot outweigh the influence of US developments.

As for the intraday strategy, the focus will be primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, the pound will be considered for buying when the price reaches the entry level around 1.3431 (the green line on the chart), with an upward target of 1.3446 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3446, the long position will be closed, and a short position will be opened in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35-point move from that level. The pound can only be expected to rise today following very strong UK economic data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: The pound will also be considered for buying today if the price tests the 1.3420 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3431 and 1.3446 can then be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, the pound will be considered for selling after the price breaks below the 1.3420 level (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The sellers' main target will be 1.3403, where the short position will be closed and a long position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move from that level. Negative news will bring renewed pressure on the pound. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2: The pound will also be considered for selling today if the price tests the 1.3431 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3420 and 1.3403 can then be expected.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further upside beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further downside beyond this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental data releases to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account balance can be lost very quickly, especially when trading large position sizes without proper money management.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

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The test of the 1.1228 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by 15 points.

The sudden return of demand for the US dollar pushed the euro lower. Just the day before, the single currency had been holding up thanks to the weakness of the US dollar, but strong US labor market data and remarks by Beth Hammack of the Federal Reserve changed the outlook. The FOMC member emphasized that inflation has remained above the target for almost six years and that monetary policy will need to become restrictive. She also stated that she prefers to take smaller steps more frequently. This is the same message she delivered in October, when the euro hit new monthly lows following her remarks. It confirms that the Fed has no intention of stopping, while a rate hike in December remains the baseline scenario.

Today, euro buyers will find it difficult to count on support from Europe. German industrial production and eurozone retail sales figures will be released in the first half of the day, and forecasts for both indicators are disappointing. For comparison, German industrial production jumped by 2.0% in August, whereas a 0.2% decline is now expected. Eurozone retail sales increased by 0.1% month over month in August after falling by 0.6% in July, while the market is now expecting another 0.1% decline. Annual retail sales growth is also expected to slow to 0.6% from 0.8%. If the data disappoint, pressure on the euro will only intensify.

As for the intraday strategy, the focus will be primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches the 1.1202 level (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1230. At 1.1230, the position will be closed, and the euro will also be sold in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35-point move from the entry point. The euro can only be expected to rise today if the economic data are positive. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: The euro will also be considered for buying today if the price tests the 1.1182 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1202 and 1.1230 can then be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: The euro will be considered for selling after the price reaches the 1.1182 level (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1154, where the position will be closed and a buy position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move in the opposite direction from that level. Downward pressure on the pair will return if the economic data are weak. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2: The euro will also be considered for selling today if the price tests the 1.1202 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1182 and 1.1154 can then be expected.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further upside beyond this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further downside beyond this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental data releases to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account balance can be lost very quickly, especially when using large position sizes without proper money management.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

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The Nasdaq lost more than 6% amid renewed anxiety over the artificial intelligence sector, and traders preferred Treasuries. Notable is how quickly market logic shifted: on Wednesday tech giants added almost $1 trillion of market value on expectations that Democrats would slow data center buildouts and thereby ease corporate cash flows, but fears about AI quickly regained the upper hand. U.S. Treasury yields plunged, prices rose, and the dollar strengthened. Recall that on Wednesday 10-year Treasuries traded near 4.84%—the low since September 10—and then falling yields pressured the dollar. Today the same yield decline is occurring for a different reason—demand for safe havens—so the dollar benefits.

Yesterday's U.S. labor data did not materially move markets despite being strong. Weekly initial jobless claims were 189,000 versus a 197,000 forecast and 195,000 the prior week, matching the lowest levels since 1969. Continuing claims were slightly worse than expected at 1,718,000 versus 1,710,000. Nonfarm labor productivity in Q3 rose 3.6% (forecast 2.8%; prior 1.4%), and unit labor costs fell 0.7% versus an expected 0.3% rise. This is the first decline in labor costs since the middle of last year and therefore a disinflationary signal for the Fed, but it was ignored in yesterday's Treasury market move.

Additional support for the dollar came from Fed speakers, notably Beth Hammack. She said policy will need to be restrictive to bring inflation back to 2% and that she prefers more frequent but smaller rate moves. Compare with October 12, when similar comments from Hammack pushed EUR to monthly lows; on October 28, she voted for a hike in a 10–2 split. The rhetoric remains hawkish, and Thomas Barkin backed a gradual pace of hikes. I believe the market now largely prices a December Fed hike, and attention is shifting to next year and how far the Fed is prepared to go.

The Bank of England met yesterday and raised the policy rate to 4.00% from 3.75%, as expected. The decision was firmer than anticipated: the vote was unanimous, 9-0-0, compared with a 3-0-6 split in September, and analysts had expected seven votes for a hike. Governor Andrew Bailey said a second hike is more likely than not if energy prices return to prior levels and added that inflation is likely to remain elevated because of the Middle East conflict. He argued inflation will not fall as quickly as previously expected given Britain's price cap mechanism for energy. Yet the pound failed to sustain the earlier bull run that began on October 28, and the risk of its liquidation is now significant. Why did the hike not support the currency? I think the move was fully priced in, and the market judges the probability of a further December step at roughly 50/50.

This episode reiterates that major central banks are in hawkish mode and that rates are unlikely to change direction soon. The ECB keeps the deposit rate at 2.50% and prices the next 25-bp step for December 17. Robert Knoop, a candidate for the ECB presidency, recently warned the central bank will have to counter fresh inflationary shocks with a hawkish policy. One external risk remains: oil is recovering after a recent decline amid an unclear pause in U.S.–Iran talks, and if the situation does not improve, oil will likely rise further, increasing pressure on the euro and sterling.

Turning to the calendar, today's European releases include German industrial production and orders, French industrial production, Italian retail sales, and eurozone producer prices. German orders draw attention after a prior 10.6% slump and an expected near-5% rebound; French industrial output is forecast to return to +0.4% after -0.3%. PPI refers to September and is unlikely to change the picture materially: month-on-month PPI is forecasted to be +2.5% after +1.9% in August, and year-on-year PPI is at +10.9% versus +8.2% previously—very high producer inflation, which the euro may react to, though today's focus is likely elsewhere.

Most attention will shift to the U.S. labor market for October. Unemployment is expected at 4.2% (it rose to that level in September after 4.1% in July and August). Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by about 65,000 after a sharp 29,000 in September; August was revised to +133,000, so 65,000 should even out the recent cadence. Average hourly earnings are expected to be +0.3% month-on-month after +0.1% and +2.9% year-on-year after +3.0%. If the data beat, dollar demand is likely to persist into the end of the week, and we would see further downside in EUR and GBP. The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for November is expected near 48; watch inflation expectations. Fed speakers Alberto Musalem and Michelle Bowman will comment on the already published data.

Technical picture for EUR/USD (hourly chart)

For buyers I see 1.1177 as the first level: a false break on the downside can be used as a long entry toward 1.1211. A break and hold above that range would extend recovery to 1.1244, and the weekly high near 1.1272 is the next target where I will look to short bounces for 25–30 pips. Short positions on rallies from 1.1211 and 1.1244 are viable only on false breaks. If bulls do not appear around 1.1177, euro downside pressure will likely intensify, and strong U.S. labor data could open the way to 1.1138 and 1.1108, where I would consider buying the rebound for 25–30 pips. Longs from 1.1138 and 1.1177 are acceptable only on false breaks.

Technical picture for GBP/USD

The setup is similar. First bullish presence I expect around 1.3408 on a false break, or buys from 1.3379, with bounce entries from 1.3355 targeting 25–30 pips. For shorts, try 1.3434 on a false break; beyond Bank of England speeches, no other major U.K. data are scheduled today. If sellers do not appear at 1.3434, look for more aggressive shorts at 1.3460 on failed holds, or sell the bounce from 1.3481 for about 25 pips.

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The decision itself was more hawkish than expected. The interest rate was raised to 4.00%, with all nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee voting in favor. The market had expected seven votes in favor, while only three members had supported a rate hike in September. The number of votes in favor increased from three to nine in less than two months, representing a significant shift within the committee. However, the pound did not appreciate in response to this news. The rate hike had been anticipated, while the dollar received support from strong US economic data at the same time.

The most important comments came from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. He indicated that the tightening cycle might not be over and that another rate hike was more likely than not. However, there is one condition: this would only be possible if energy prices returned to their previous levels.

This is where the main problem for the pound lies. Oil prices are moving in the opposite direction. Brent crude has fallen to approximately $93.60 after reaching nearly $118 at the end of October. Over the past few days, its price has declined by almost $10 as the market anticipates an imminent end to the war with Iran. High oil prices were precisely what kept inflation elevated and gave the Bank of England grounds to consider further rate increases.

The market understands this and currently assigns a 50% probability to another rate hike in December. This explains why Bailey's hawkish comments failed to support the pound.

An interesting situation has emerged: the pound currently depends less on the Bank of England and more on oil prices. As long as oil continues to decline, the argument in favor of another rate hike becomes weaker with each trading session. Bailey himself acknowledged that much of the inflation surge has already been priced in. This means that lower oil prices may provide less relief than initially expected. However, the currency market focuses less on the precise figures and more on the overall direction, which currently remains unfavorable for the pound.

No support from UK economic data should be expected today. The Lloyds House Price Index will be released, with growth expected to be almost zero and some estimates even pointing to a decline. This would indicate a sluggish housing market under pressure from high borrowing costs.

Huw Pill will then deliver a speech. Back in July, he was among the three policymakers who voted for immediate monetary tightening, alongside Megan Greene and Catherine Mann. His hawkish stance has been well established and is already reflected in market prices, so no new market impetus is expected from his comments.

Therefore, the US labor market report remains the main market focus. This report will be discussed in detail in the forecast for the second half of the day.

Momentum

The price is currently trading within a range, with 10 points separating it from the upward breakout level of 1.3434 and 16 points from the downward breakout level of 1.3408.

The 1.3434 level is important for an upward move. If the pound consolidates firmly above it, the next targets will be 1.3460 and then 1.3481. Such a move is possible if the US economic report is weaker than expected or oil prices rise sharply. However, as oil prices continue to decline, this scenario appears less likely.

For a downward move, attention is focused on 1.3408. A downward breakout would open the way toward 1.3379 and 1.3355. This is considered the primary scenario. The dollar is supported by US economic data and the Federal Reserve, while the argument in favor of another Bank of England rate hike is becoming weaker.

Mean Reversion

The upper reference level is 1.3445, while the lower level is 1.3409. The upper level is 11 points above the breakout level of 1.3434, meaning that price could reach it quickly following an upward breakout. If the price touches 1.3445 and then moves back down, this would indicate a reversal rather than a continuation of the upward movement.

The lower level of 1.3409 is only 1 point above 1.3408. Because these levels are so close, it is impossible to distinguish a genuine breakout from a false breakout based on the first test alone. Therefore, it is better to avoid trading the initial reaction to the US labor market report and observe subsequent price action.

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The reason is that US economic data exceeded expectations, while European data disappointed. Initial jobless claims, which measure the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, came in at 189,000 versus the forecast of 197,000. The lower this figure, the stronger the labor market. Labor productivity, which measures how much output workers produce per hour, accelerated to 3.6% in the third quarter, compared with the forecast of 2.8%.

The situation in Europe was the opposite. German industrial orders increased by 4.4%, below the expected 4.8%, while industrial production in France declined by 0.5%, despite analysts forecasting growth. The market favored the dollar.

Beth Hammack of the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, added to market confidence in the dollar. She stated that monetary policy would need to become restrictive to bring inflation back to 2% and that she would prefer more frequent but smaller interest rate adjustments. This is not new information. Similar comments on October 12 had already pushed the euro to monthly lows, while Hammack voted in favor of an interest rate increase on October 28. Her stance has not changed, but the market reaction is telling. Investors are once again seriously pricing in a December Fed rate hike, and these expectations are supporting the dollar.

The euro has little to counter this pressure. The European economy is slowing, while inflation remains high, at around 4.0%. The ECB continues to signal that the final rate increase will take place in December, bringing the rate to 2.75%, but it has provided no new hawkish signals. Such signals could have helped offset the dollar's strength.

Today, the euro faces another round of European economic data, which offers little reason for buyers to be optimistic. German industrial production for September is forecast to decline by 0.2% following a strong August, when it increased by 2.0%. This expected pullback will nevertheless highlight the weakness of the industrial sector. Retail sales in the eurozone are also expected to decline slightly, while their annual growth rate is forecast to slow. This indicates weaker consumer spending, as more money is being spent on expensive energy.

Momentum

The price is currently below both key levels. The breakout level for an upward move is 1.1211, just 14 points above the current price, while the breakout level for a downward move is 1.1177, 20 points below.

The 1.1211 level is important for an upward move. If the euro consolidates firmly above it, the next targets will be 1.1244 and then 1.1272. Such a move is possible if the US economic report disappoints, but there is insufficient reason to anticipate it before the data are released.

For a downward move, attention is focused on 1.1177. A downward breakout would open the way toward 1.1138 and 1.1108. This is considered the primary scenario. European economic data remain weak, the Federal Reserve is supporting the dollar, and the euro has no new catalyst for appreciation.

Mean Reversion

The upper reference level is 1.1218, while the lower level is 1.1180. The upper level is just 7 points above the breakout level of 1.1211, meaning that price could reach it quickly following an upward breakout. If the price touches 1.1218 and then moves back down, this would indicate a reversal rather than a continuation of the upward movement.

The lower level of 1.1180 is only 3 points above 1.1177. Because these levels are so close, it is impossible to distinguish a genuine breakout from a false breakout based on the first test alone. Such sharp price movements are common following labor market reports. Therefore, it is better to wait for the initial market reaction to subside and observe subsequent price action.

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On the first day after the election, investors thought a divided government might be good for the economy. By day two, they changed their minds. Democratic control of Congress was read as a business risk, prompting a rush into the greenback and driving EUR/USD off the upper edge of its 1.115–1.124 trading band.

Nasdaq 100 and Treasury yield dynamics

The equity sell-off is a clear negative for EUR/USD because it signals a fresh bout of liquidity stress. Investors are selling assets to raise cash and hedge political risk, and are buying US Treasuries aggressively. Falling yields conflict with the apparent strength of the US economy, leaving the market's next move unclear.

What supports the dollar is a Citigroup economic surprise index running hotter on strong employment prints, jobless claim data, and productivity gains hitting one-year highs. Coupled with hawkish Fed rhetoric, including vocal support for high interest rates from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, the evidence suggests the dollar's policy advantages remain intact.

Economic surprise index and Treasury yields

Context matters. The US economy looks stronger than others, and slowing it will take time and likely require Democrats to successfully curb AI investment — a doubtful prospect given the president's veto power.

A politically weakened Donald Trump historically correlated with a more hawkish Fed and a stronger dollar. The dollar had occasionally softened on fears around Trump's foreign policy agenda (tariffs, Greenland talk), but later recovered. The Republicans' midterm losses free Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to take a tougher stance on inflation.

Transatlantic divergence is expected to persist. Traders are pricing in two Fed rate hikes by mid-next year and a roughly 50% chance of a third move. Standard Chartered calls the dollar the strongest G10 currency and expects the US to outperform energy-dependent Europe, while acknowledging the political risks from Washington.

Thus, dollar support comes from US resilience and expected Fed tightening. Any dollar weakness driven by politics will likely be temporary.

Technically, the daily chart shows that EUR/USD is forming an expanding wedge pattern. A rebound off fair value near 1.1190 would be a buying opportunity, while a break below 1.1165 would be a trigger to sell.

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September's collapse as a starting point

The drama around October's Nonfarm Payrolls is wound up to a peak. All the US preliminary indicators — from ADP and JOLTS to Challenger releases and ISM activity indexes — have combined into a paradoxical picture:

• US businesses have effectively stopped mass layoffs;
• they are extremely selective about opening permanent jobs;
• and they are hiring heavily on a temporary/seasonal basis

The market awaits the October numbers with particular apprehension because of September's failure, one of the bleakest months of the year for the US labor market. The economy added a token 29,000 jobs versus the market's expected +94,000, and the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. Moreover, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised down payrolls for the previous two months by a total of 60,000. July's result was revised into negative territory (-10,000). Nonfarm Payrolls for August were cut by almost a third, from 162,000 to 133,000. At the time this looked like a harbinger of a hard recession. However, a fresh set of leading indicators has forced analysts to reassess sharply.

ISM signals — a factory freeze vs. services resilience

ISM readings show a structural split across corporate America. In manufacturing (ISM Manufacturing Employment), the employment subindex stubbornly sits in contraction at 46.0 (readings below 50 signal contraction). High borrowing costs, weak external demand and geopolitical risks have forced manufacturers to put hiring on hold.

In services (ISM Services Employment), the picture is fundamentally different: the subindex remains above the waterline at 51.8, signalling continued hiring. Service companies remain the lone driver of permanent job creation in the country, preventing the labor market from spinning out.

ADP: the private sector speaks up

The automatic data provider ADP's report on Wednesday, November 4, delivered the week's first pleasant surprise. Private payrolls rose by 86,000 in October, comfortably ahead of consensus of roughly 69–75k. The September estimate was barely revised — from 90k to 86k. The structure of gains reflects the consumer-driven nature of the economy. Leaders were sectors tied to domestic demand:

• trade, transport and utilities: +39k
• education and healthcare: +28k
• leisure and hospitality: +19k
• construction: +13k

The month's anti-hero was professional and business services, which lost another 27k jobs. That sector has cut staff for three months in a row — worrying because it historically acts as a barometer of top-management confidence at large firms. Wage pressures, however, remain far from exhausted. Workers who changed jobs in the ADP sample saw average total pay gains (including bonuses and overtime) of +7.6% — the sharpest jump since March 2024. "People are being drawn to new jobs by bonuses, overtime and more hours in addition to higher base pay," ADP chief economist Nela Richardson noted.

JOLTS: the river begins to thaw

The September JOLTS report (released November 3) delivered a second dose of upside whose full implications the market has yet to digest. Openings jumped by 333,000 to 7.52 million (a 4.5% job-openings rate) versus the ~7.1m analysts had expected. August was revised up to 7.19m. Flow dynamics were even more revealing:

• hirings rose to 5.4 million (+131k m/m)
• quits surged from 3.0m to 3.4m — a clear sign Americans feel confident enough to change jobs
• layoffs fell to 1.64m (a 1.0% separation rate), approaching historic lows

Reuters aptly summarized the state of play as "low-hire, low-fire." High corporate profits and resilient household spending keep layoffs at troughs, but geopolitics (notably the conflict with Iran) forces firms to be cautious about expanding payrolls. EY-Parthenon sees first signs of thaw: the labour market is "relatively strong but frozen," and is beginning to stir.

Challenger: few layoffs, but payrolls aren't expanding

The Challenger, Gray & Christmas report (Nov. 5) confirmed the picture. US firms announced 43,994 job cuts in October — only 2% more than September but 71% below October last year, and the smallest monthly total since 2023. Year-to-date, corporations have announced 617k cuts — down 44% from the same period in 2025. Big tech remains the primary source of announced reductions.

Since January, tech giants have cut 171.5k jobs (+21% y/y). The key trigger is reorganising processes around generative AI. The report's main focus, though, is seasonal hiring: 470.4k temporary openings announced year?to?date (up 26% y/y) more than offset permanent hires. Corporations prefer flexibility to permanent contracts:

• Amazon posted a record 300k temporary roles (vs. 250k in prior seasons);
• Logistics giant UPS posted 100k seasonal positions

"This is a low-layoff environment. Employers hold on to staff ahead of the holidays, and hiring is mostly short-term seasonal work — companies want flexibility to meet holiday demand without increasing permanent payrolls," says Andy Challenger, senior VP.

Weekly initial claims: an extraordinary buffer

Weekly Labor Department data confirm the labour market's underlying strength. Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 31 fell to 189,000 — the lowest since mid-July and near multi-decade troughs. The four-week moving average settled at 194,750. The only cautionary note is continuing claims, which have inched up to 1.72 million. Few are being laid off, but those who lose jobs need more time to find new ones.

What to expect from October Nonfarm Payrolls?

Median forecasts from FactSet and Reuters paint a mildly positive picture:

• payrolls: +50k to +125k jobs
• unemployment: ~4.2%

Economists' estimates vary widely — from a cautious +45k (KPMG) to an optimistic +120k. Healthcare, education and hospitality are likely to shoulder much of the hiring. Crucially, interpret the magnitude correctly.

KPMG reminds us that due to an ageing labour force and a sharp drop in immigrant inflows, the economy's break-even pace — the monthly job gain needed to keep unemployment stable — is almost zero. Today, the US needs only roughly 30–60k jobs per month to keep the labour market in balance. A 12-month average rise of 41k is no longer alarming; Kiplinger even calls sub-100k monthly gains the "new normal." Given ADP and JOLTS' leading signals, risks to consensus skew to the upside.

Wall Street's nightmare is not weak job growth

The real nightmare for Wall Street would be the dangerous mix of rising unemployment together with accelerating wages — stagflationary dynamics that would trap the Fed. The report is being released in a tense context: the Fed is in a tightening cycle. In September, the central bank hiked by 25 bps, and on October 28 it held the policy rate at 3.75–4.00%.

Hawks dominate Fed leadership. Liza Cook and Beth Hammack openly voted for an immediate 25-bp hike. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh publicly described the labor market as "very positive" and shifted the Fed's focus squarely to fighting inflation. Futures price in a high chance of another hike in December. If tomorrow's release shows strong hiring and hourly earnings accelerating above +0.3% m/m, the Fed's hawks will get an unambiguous case for a decisive strike at markets.

The US labour market ahead of the NFPs looks like a frozen river

On the surface, everything is iced over — layoffs at half-century lows, unemployment around 4.2% and below 4.5% for 59 months (the longest streak since WWII), and corporate cuts falling rapidly. But under the ice there is strong movement:

• job openings and quits are reviving (JOLTS);
• wage premia are surging in ADP;
• logistics giants are hiring hundreds of thousands of seasonal workers while permanent; hiring remains nearly stalled

October's NFP is unlikely to melt the ice completely. But it can provide a clear signal on whether the Fed will lift rates again in December.

November 6, 10:00 / Germany / Industrial production (Sep m/m) / prev.: -1.2% / actual: 2.0% / consensus: 0% / EUR/USD – down

German industrial production rose 2.0% month-on-month in August, recovering from a 1.2% drop in July. The August gain was the strongest since March 2025:

• construction expanded by 9.3% ;
• machinery output rose 5.3%;
• finishing trades jumped 13.1%

Automotive production fell 5.4% due to summer shutdowns, while energy-intensive industries saw output decline 0.5%. Over three months, manufacturing rose 0.4%. Consensus expected growth to fade to zero in September. The euro therefore risks losing ground and sliding toward local lows.

November 6, 10:00 / UK / Lloyds house price index (Oct) / prev.: -0.4% / actual: 0% / consensus: -0.3% / GBP/USD – down

UK house prices were flat in September. In August, the index fell 0.4%. High mortgage costs continue to restrain buyer activity. Northern Ireland posted a 7.4% annual rise, while Greater London recorded the largest drop of 2.2%. A return to negative readings would heighten worries about the housing market and weigh on the pound.

November 6, 13:00 / Eurozone / Retail sales (Sep) / prev.: 0.4% / actual: 0.8% / consensus: 0.6% / EUR/USD – down

Retail sales in the eurozone rose 0.8% in August. In July, the indicator fell to a two-year low of 0.4%. The long-term average monthly gain is about 1.14%. A slowdown in retail growth to 0.6% would confirm weakness in the consumer sector and weigh on the euro.

November 6, 16:30 / Canada / Employment change (Oct) / prev.: -41.7k / actual: -68.3k / consensus: 13.6k / USD/CAD – down

Canadian employment fell by 68.3k in September — the largest decline in seven months. The public sector lost 70.0k jobs for the fourth consecutive month. Youth employment declined by 48.0k. The employment-to-population ratio fell from 60.8% to 60.6%. A sharp rebound with positive job growth would improve the outlook for the Canadian economy and support the loonie.

November 6, 16:30 / US / Nonfarm payrolls (Oct) / prev.: 133k / actual: 29k / consensus: 65k / USDX (6-currency USD index) – up

US payrolls rose only 29k in September, with employment estimates for the prior two months revised down by a total of 60k.

• Healthcare added 17k jobs;
• Construction added 11k;
• Manufacturing added 9k

The financial sector lost 7k jobs. If hiring rebounds, it would confirm labour-market resilience and push the dollar higher.

November 6, 16:30 / US / Average hourly earnings (Oct y/y) / prev.: 3.1% / actual: 3.0% / consensus: 2.9% / USDX – down

In September, annual growth in average hourly earnings was 3.0%, down from 3.1% in August. September's reading was the weakest pay growth since May 2021. A further slowdown would reduce the risk of a wage-price spiral and could cap dollar strength.

November 6, 18:00 / Canada / Ivey PMI (Oct) / prev.: 64.3 / actual: 58.2 / consensus: 58.0 / USD/CAD – up

Canada's Ivey PMI fell to 58.2 in September, retreating from its April 2022 peak.

• The input-price index accelerated from 80.4 to 82.8;
• delivery times fell to 39.2;
• inventories dropped to 58.3

The hiring subindex rose from 55.0 to 56.5. A contraction in the indicator would signal a cooling in business optimism and weigh on the loonie.

November 6, 18:00 / US / University of Michigan consumer sentiment (prelim., Nov) / prev.: 48.1 / actual: 48.0 / consensus: 48.0 / USDX – volatile

The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index stood at 48.0 at the end of October, near a five-month low. Perceptions of big-ticket purchase conditions fell by 18%. One-year inflation expectations rose to 4.7%, and long-run expectations increased to 3.5%. Persistently weak sentiment will keep markets on edge and could spike volatility in the dollar.

Nov 6, 03:00 / US / Speech by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan / USDX

Nov 6, 12:00 / Eurozone / Speech by Sharon Donnery (ECB Supervisory Board) / EUR/USD

Nov 6, 12:30 / Eurozone / Speech by Sharon Donnery (ECB Supervisory Board) / EUR/USD

Nov 6, 17:10 / US / Speech by St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem / USDX

Nov 6, 19:00 / Japan / Speech by BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda / USD/JPY

Nov 6, 20:15 / US / Speech by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman / USDX

Comments from major central bankers are also scheduled throughout the day; their remarks typically trigger FX volatility as they can signal future policy intentions.

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The US midterm elections are behind us and produced the results the world had largely expected. I think nearly everyone on the planet understood, to some degree, that a Republican defeat would cool Donald Trump's momentum. In essence, neither experts nor ordinary people doubted that Republicans would lose at least one chamber. Historically this is how it has gone: midterms usually flip control of at least one house of Congress. Yet the outcomes of Trump's policies in the first two years of a second presidential term proved so glaring that American voters no longer want the "golden age" promised by their leader. They prefer to live quietly, peacefully, and calmly under Democratic rule rather than pay twice as much for fuel and tariffs on all imported goods under Trump.

It should also be understood that Americans are not currently the world's most welcome nation. For example, Canada was for many years America's main ally and was regarded as a full friend on the geopolitical map. That changed when Trump arrived, and he plainly did not care about historic relationships. Trump imposed tariffs on half the countries in the world; some nations managed, with difficulty, to strike trade deals with the conflicted leader. But this year showed that having an agreement does not automatically prevent fresh grievances in the future. The European Union and Canada have already experienced this firsthand.

So how should Canadians or Europeans feel about Americans if their president does everything to complicate their lives? Recall that last year many Europeans and Canadians even boycotted American goods in stores, and in some countries U.S. products were marked with special stickers so consumers would know not to buy them.

Two years of "pariah status" were enough. At the midterms Americans openly and honestly judged Trump's policies. Now two fundamentally Russian-style questions stand before the president's administration and the entire Republican Party: "Who is to blame?" and "What should be done?" Who is to blame—that is, roughly speaking, clear. What to do about it—in principle—is also clear. Donald Trump will, with about 95% probability, finish his presidential term and then, in any case, leave office. Republicans will have to elect a new leader and may spend years trying to regain American voters' trust. Reports are already emerging that many Republican congressmen are beginning to distance themselves from Trump and are even ready to cooperate with Democrats in both chambers.

However, what to do about Iran remains unclear. Democrats have already said they will demand Trump end the pointless war, while Trump replied that the war will end when he wants it to. Republicans understand Trump will leave in two years and they will have to carry on. The more mess Trump makes now, the worse it will be for Republicans later. Even U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance yesterday called on Trump to end the war with Iran. Therefore, we believe that in the near term opposition to Trump will come not only from Democrats but also from some Republicans, and the White House leader will now fight not only with Iran but with Congress as well.

Trading recommendations for EUR/USD:

The EUR/USD pair remains in a downtrend that lacks sufficient fundamental, macroeconomic, and geopolitical support to continue a bullish reversal. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains negative, but in 2026 geopolitics first and then a hawkish Fed provided strong support for the U.S. currency. When the price is below the moving average, consider shorts with targets at 1.1165 and 1.1108. Above the moving average, longs are relevant with targets at 1.1305 and 1.1353.

Trading recommendations for GBP/USD:

The GBP/USD pair continues its upward tendency, which may be part of the 2022 global trend. Donald Trump's policies will continue to pressure the U.S. economy, so we do not expect long-term dollar strength. 2026 has so far been positive for the dollar because geopolitics and inflation forced capital into safe havens and pushed the Fed back to tightening. However, on the weekly timeframe, the pair remains in a flat between 1.3150 and 1.3780 within a four-year uptrend, which supports a medium-term bullish outlook for the pound. Consider long positions above the moving average with targets at 1.3544 and 1.3550. If the price is below the moving average, trade the downside with targets at 1.3367 and 1.3306.

Notes on illustrations:

Linear regression channels help identify the current trend. If both point the same way, the trend is strong;

The smoothed moving average (setting 20.0) defines the short-term trend and the direction to trade;

Murray levels are target points for moves and corrections;

Volatility bands (red lines) show the likely intraday price corridor based on current volatility metrics;

The CCI indicator entering oversold (below -250) or overbought (above +250) territory signals an approaching trend reversal.

Traders Fair Philippines is one of the largest and most prestigious financial summits in Southeast Asia. Held in Manila on May 24, the event gathered thousands of traders, investors, brokers, and fintech professionals from across the region to discuss trends, build business relationships, and gain up-to-date insights from industry leaders.

Our booth M18, was among the most visited and eye-catching at the exhibition. Staffed by an international team of specialists from the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia, we were able to foster open and productive communication with every guest.

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Bitcoin and Ether remain in a downward move, repeatedly fed by fresh negative headlines. Recall that recent developments for the crypto world have been broadly negative. Central banks — notably the Fed — continue to tighten monetary policy, the Clarity Act remains only a bill, Democrats won the U.S. Congressional elections, further reducing the odds that the Clarity Act becomes law, and historically Bitcoin has tended to fall after midterms. Last week the list of headwinds grew with the hack of the world's largest crypto exchange, Binance. Taken together, the fundamentals for further growth in the crypto market remain, to put it mildly, doubtful. We do not deny that the asset can rally in any news environment, but at present there are no technical signals or fundamental reasons to expect a sustainable rise.

Meanwhile, well-known commentator Robert Kiyosaki felt obliged to remind the market that he continues to buy Bitcoin, gold and silver. In recent years Mr. Kiyosaki's public activity has largely consisted of forecasting perpetual Bitcoin rallies. There is no question about gold and silver, which have stood the test of time, but claims about another leg higher for "digital gold" raise many questions. It is worth noting that nobody knows for certain which assets, instruments and volumes Kiyosaki personally holds. Drawing conclusions from his statements alone is therefore unwise. The author of Rich Dad Poor Dad welcomes Bitcoin's decline because it provides an opportunity to buy at a cheaper price — but no one actually knows whether he purchased any Bitcoin.

Kiyosaki also reiterated that U.S. public debt keeps rising and the Fed continues to print money without limit, which he says will eventually lead to a collapse of the global economy. "When gold, silver and Bitcoin collapsed, people panicked and I bought more. I am looking forward to the next crash," the businessman said. He also described fiat money as counterfeit that loses value over time. None of this is new; similar warnings have been repeated for years. The problem is that Bitcoin has not rallied over the past year, the fundamental case for a sustained rise is absent, Kiyosaki's personal crypto holdings are unverified, and his call for a global financial meltdown is a long-running thesis he has voiced repeatedly.

Trading recommendations for BTC/USD

Bitcoin attempted to start a new uptrend, but the fundamental backdrop, spot demand and recent news are too weak to count on continuation. On the daily timeframe Bitcoin may remain in decline, as price reacted to two bearish FVGs and formed a bearish order block. A move outside the daily sideways channel is currently interpreted as a deviation. Thus Bitcoin generated a reversal signal and set course for $70,800. We do not consider the bearish trend finished. Short positions are more relevant in the near term than longs. Note the active bearish FVG on the daily chart, which produced a fresh sell signal today. On the 4-hour timeframe a new bearish FVG has formed; a reaction to it would provide traders opportunities to open new short positions.

Trading recommendations for ETH/USD

The daily technical picture for Ether has changed. Ether produced a significant upward impulse in June–September 2026 that could mark the start of a new long-term trend. However, there is no confidence that Bitcoin's bear market has ended. If Bitcoin remains in a downtrend or even a flat, do not expect Ether to rally. Bitcoin has produced enough sell signals and bearish patterns on the daily chart to continue or resume its decline. Consequently, we also expect Ether to fall, with targets near $1,850 and $1,391. Bullish FVGs formed on Ether's charts, but Bitcoin's bearish FVG has driven the market reaction. Because Bitcoin's patterns are more consequential than Ether's, the latter has suffered a logical decline that may continue today.

Explanations for illustrations:

- CHOCH — change of trend structure.

- Liquidity — liquidity, Stop Losses and pending orders that market makers use to build positions.

- FVG — fair-value gap. A price-inefficiency area that price traverses quickly, indicating the absence of one side of the market; subsequently price tends to return and react to such areas in continuation of the main trend.

- IFVG — inverted fair-value gap. After returning to such an area, price often does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests from the other side.

- OB — order block. The candle where a market maker opened a position aiming to take liquidity to form a position in the opposite direction.

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The Elliott Wave structure of the 4-hour EUR/USD chart has become more complex. On the higher timeframe (bottom chart), the downward trend segment has taken the form of a five-wave A-B-C-D-E structure, which could be completed at any time, as it appears sufficiently developed. All the waves within this segment are approximately equal in size, which suggests that the structure is corrective. If this assumption is correct, the completion of this structure will be followed by the development of a new upward impulse segment, with targets well above the 20th level.

On the lower timeframe (top chart), an impulsive wave structure continues to develop, which may belong to wave E of the higher timeframe. If this is indeed the case, the dollar's strengthening is approaching its end, regardless of how strong its upward movement becomes. The presumed wave 5 of E is either complete or nearing completion. In either case, the current wave structure suggests that the downward wave sequence is nearing completion on both charts.

The news background and the sharp shift in market sentiment have triggered a significant appreciation of the US currency. However, relatively few new reasons remain for further dollar strength.

The Euro Is Once Again Depending on Dollar Weakness

The EUR/USD exchange rate declined by 10 points on Thursday, and Friday began with a further decline of 20 points. Overall, the European currency remains in low demand and continues to struggle against the dollar. This week, conditions appeared particularly favorable for the euro, yet it failed to rise even above the peak of wave 4. Toward the end of the week, the euro is declining again, despite the news background and the Elliott Wave structure.

Overnight, Donald Trump stated that he might have to destroy the remaining part of Iran. As can be seen, the US president is paying no attention to the Democrats' demands to end the war and is showing no intention of reaching an agreement with Congress. As previously noted, Trump could well order new strikes against Iran, even without the approval of a fully Democratic Congress.

The only unclear point is what Trump is waiting for. Threats against Iran have been made for several consecutive months. Previously, Trump was concerned about further escalation because oil and fuel prices could rise even more sharply. There is now little reason for such concern: the elections are over, so what comes next? In any case, the market appears to place more confidence in Trump than in the Democrats. At least, this is the conclusion that can be drawn from the latest appreciation of the US dollar.

Important US labor market and unemployment reports will be released today. However, it is worth considering in advance what results could realistically mean for the market. If the labor market once again produces disappointing figures, should a dollar decline of more than 20–30 points be expected? Probably not. The market has already had sufficient reasons to sell the dollar this week. Therefore, regardless of how weak the US reports turn out to be, a substantial dollar decline is not expected.

At the same time, if the reports exceed expectations, the dollar is likely to continue appreciating. A decline in EUR/USD below the 1.11 level would make adjustments to the Elliott Wave structure necessary.

General Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, the instrument is still within the global corrective A-B-C-D-E trend structure. However, this structure appears fully developed and may therefore be complete. At present, conditions appear favorable not only for buying the European currency but also for anticipating the development of a full-fledged upward trend segment.

According to the higher timeframe, an advance of at least to the 1.17–1.18 levels is expected. The unsuccessful attempt to break above the 1.1126 level, corresponding to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level (bottom chart, higher timeframe), also indicates that the market may be preparing for an upward move.

The higher timeframe shows a downward trend segment that has taken the form of an A-B-C-D-E structure. The internal wave structure of wave E has developed into a five-wave impulse pattern, but it may already be complete. If this assumption is correct, a new upward trend segment should begin to develop.

The Main Principles of the Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to understand. Complex structures are difficult to trade and are often subject to changes.

2. If there is uncertainty about current market conditions, it is better to stay out of the market.

3. There can never be 100% certainty about the direction of price movement. Do not forget to use protective Stop Loss orders.

4. Elliott Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

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Bitcoin's latest three-month rally was essentially a move from the lower boundary of the sideways channel to its upper boundary on the daily timeframe. This movement followed the formation of a deviation below the channel's lower boundary and was accompanied by a deviation above its upper boundary. The deviation above the upper boundary was substantial, but if it was indeed a deviation, Bitcoin is now heading toward the $70,800 level. "Digital gold" has returned to the sideways channel, making a move toward its 50% level a logical and technically consistent development.

As already mentioned, immediately after the US Congressional elections, which the Democrats won, Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market posted solid gains. This once again contradicts the fundamental background, as the Democrats are likely to attempt to block Trump's latest efforts to pass the Clarity Act. Moreover, the Democrats support reducing government spending and may begin an open political confrontation with Donald Trump in Congress.

As a result, US economic growth could slow in the coming years. Under such conditions, investors tend to favor safe-haven assets. The US stock market has declined for several consecutive days, which also does little to improve sentiment among cryptocurrency traders. In our view, the fundamental background for Bitcoin deteriorated further this week. A long list of factors that clearly do not support Bitcoin's appreciation had already been identified. This week, that list became even longer. In addition, spot demand remains weak, while capital outflows from ETF products have been more frequent than inflows throughout 2026.

Overall BTC/USD Outlook on the 1-Day Timeframe

On the daily timeframe, the bearish trend structure has been broken. Therefore, "digital gold" has most likely officially entered a new bullish trend formation phase. Price reached the bearish FVG from the previous trend and reacted to this pattern, triggering the expected correction. However, the move beyond the 60,000–82,500 sideways channels in September may have been a deviation. Combined with the reactions to two bearish FVGs, this could trigger a decline toward the lower boundary of the sideways channel.

Bitcoin also retraced to the nearest bearish FVG and showed a clear reaction, forming a new sell signal.

Overall BTC/USD Outlook on the 4-Hour Timeframe

The bearish trend structure continues to develop on the 4-hour timeframe. The CHOCH level is currently at $82,000. All the necessary bearish reversal signals have appeared on the daily timeframe, allowing traders to open short positions.

Bitcoin's targets are currently best determined using the sideways channel on the daily chart, which remains relevant in the current market structure. The trend structure is bearish on the 4-hour timeframe, while Bitcoin has reacted to another bearish pattern on the daily timeframe. The next decline followed shortly afterward.

BTC/USD Trading Recommendations

Bitcoin attempted to establish a new uptrend, but the fundamental background, spot demand, and latest news remain too weak to support its continuation. In the near term, Bitcoin may continue to decline on the daily timeframe, as price has reacted to two bearish FVGs and formed a bearish Order Block.

The move beyond the sideways channel on the daily chart is currently interpreted as a deviation. Thus, Bitcoin has generated a reversal signal and is heading toward the $70,800 level. The bearish trend is not considered complete. Short positions are currently more relevant than long positions.

Among the current patterns, the bearish FVG on the daily chart deserves particular attention, as a new sell signal formed near this area today. A new bearish FVG has also formed on the 4-hour timeframe. A reaction to this area could provide traders with an opportunity to open new short positions.

Explanations for the Charts:

• CHOCH (Change of Character) – A break in the existing trend structure.
• Liquidity – Stop-loss orders and pending orders that market makers use to build their positions.
• FVG (Fair Value Gap) – An area of price inefficiency. Price moves through such areas very quickly, indicating a lack of participation from one side of the market. Subsequently, price tends to return to these areas and react to them in the direction of the prevailing trend.
• IFVG (Inversion Fair Value Gap) – An inverted area of price inefficiency. When price returns to such an area, it does not react to it but instead breaks through it with strong momentum and then retests it from the opposite side.
• OB (Order Block) – A candle associated with market-maker activity, where liquidity is collected to establish a position in the opposite direction.

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The GBP/USD currency pair also traded lower on Thursday, although a further rise in the British pound would have seemed more logical. Yesterday, the Bank of England made the expected decision to begin tightening monetary policy as part of its ongoing efforts to combat high inflation. However, the market had already anticipated this move and priced it in beforehand. Overall, the pound has performed relatively well in recent weeks.

It should also be recalled that the pound's appreciation was driven not only by expectations of monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. The sideways channels on the daily and weekly timeframes remain relevant. After price has reached their lower boundaries, a move toward their upper boundaries would be a logical development. Therefore, following the correction, a resumption of the pound's upward movement is expected, regardless of the fundamental and macroeconomic background.

It should also be noted that the long-term uptrend remains intact. Returning to yesterday's Bank of England meeting, it is worth adding that the decision to raise the key interest rate was unanimous, although traders had expected two members of the Monetary Policy Committee to vote against tightening. Thus, the Bank of England's stance can be considered more hawkish than anticipated.

Today, GBP/USD movements will depend entirely on the US unemployment data and the Nonfarm Payrolls report.

From a technical perspective, the British pound continues to develop an uptrend, as indicated by the trendline. On the higher timeframes, price continues to move from the lower boundaries of the sideways channels toward their upper boundaries. From a technical standpoint, the pound's movement remains consistent with the overall market structure, and a minor correction will not alter this outlook.

On the 5-minute timeframe, two sell signals were generated on Thursday, and their implications may extend into today's session. First, the price consolidated below the 1.3465–1.3480 level and then rebounded from it. The British pound did not decline yesterday, but such a move could occur today, particularly if the US labor market and unemployment reports show stronger-than-forecast results.

COT Report

COT reports for the British pound show that non-commercial traders have maintained a dominant net short position for several consecutive months. The net position remains negative despite the continuation of the long-term uptrend. Given developments in the Middle East, it is hardly surprising that demand for the US dollar remains relatively high in 2026. The war between the United States and Iran has formally been put on hold, but hostilities could resume in the near future. The Federal Reserve's changed monetary policy stance is also supporting the dollar, while the upward trendline has been broken. However, this break occurred within a sideways market, so the uptrend is not considered complete.

In the long term, the dollar continues to weaken due to Donald Trump's policies, as clearly illustrated on the weekly timeframe. The trade war is likely to continue in one form or another for a considerable period, while Trump's policies are aimed, both directly and indirectly, at weakening the US currency. The long-term uptrend remains intact.

According to the latest COT report (dated October 27), the "Non-commercial" group opened 2,400 buy positions and 1,400 sell positions. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 1,000 over the week.

GBP/USD Analysis: 1-Hour Chart

On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD continues to develop a logical and technically consistent uptrend. On the daily and weekly timeframes, price has swept liquidity below recent lows while remaining within the sideways channels. Therefore, further appreciation of the British currency can be expected, at least toward 1.3650, which represents the upper boundary of the sideways channel on the daily chart. No fundamental or macroeconomic catalysts are required for the pound to appreciate, as GBP/USD remains within the sideways channels.

For November 6, the following key levels are identified: 1.3042–1.3050, 1.3096–1.3115, 1.3179–1.3187, 1.3248, 1.3301–1.3309, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3465–1.3480, 1.3588, and 1.3671–1.3681. The Senkou Span B (1.3358) and Kijun-sen (1.3440) lines may also generate trading signals. It is recommended that the Stop Loss be moved to breakeven once the price has moved 20 points in the correct direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when identifying trading signals.

No significant economic events or publications are scheduled in the UK today, while the US is set to release several important macroeconomic reports. Naturally, the Nonfarm Payrolls report and the unemployment rate will be particularly important, as these indicators could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. However, even without considering this factor, the market reaction to these releases could be substantial.

Summary of the Analysis

Traders may consider the 1.3369–1.3382 level as a target for short positions, as two sell signals were generated in the 1.3465–1.3480 level yesterday. Consolidation above the 1.3465–1.3480 level would make 1.3588 a potential target for long positions.

Explanations for the Charts:

• Support and resistance levels – thick red lines around which price movements may end. These levels are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines – Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour chart. These are strong technical levels.
• Extreme levels – thin red lines from which price has previously rebounded. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines – trendlines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT charts – the size of the net position held by each trader category.

We would like to inform you about changes in trading hours with InstaForex on May 26, 2025.

Metals - Early Close at 21:30.

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On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair once again failed to break above the 1.1261–1.1274 level and, consequently, exit the sideways channel and begin a logical and technically justified upward trend. As can be seen, the euro still cannot manage even a corrective recovery. After declining by 600 points, the price has been trading sideways for a month. Thus, the euro remains at the bottom of the market and has little chance of appreciating until traders change their attitude toward the currency. It is worth recalling that the pound has been trading much more consistently than the euro in recent weeks. The ECB is also raising interest rates, just like the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve. The point is that the euro's current market position clearly does not reflect the news background of the past several months. Conditions in Europe are not entirely favorable, but positive developments are also emerging. The situation in the United States, however, is currently highly unstable and unpredictable. Therefore, the outlook remains unfavorable for further US dollar appreciation. Nevertheless, the price remains within the sideways channel. Following the rebound from its upper boundary, a decline toward the lower boundary would be a logical scenario. There were no significant fundamental or macroeconomic events in the European Union or the United States yesterday.

From a technical perspective, the downward trend may have ended, as the second descending trendline has now been broken. However, the price remains within the 1.1115–1.1261 sideways channel, so the euro's outlook remains uncertain. A rebound from the channel's upper boundary could trigger another decline in the euro, regardless of the news background.

One sell signal was formed on the 5-minute timeframe on Thursday. At the very beginning of the European trading session, the price rebounded from the 1.1261–1.1274 level, allowing traders to open short positions. By the end of the day, the pair had declined by 25–30 points.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated October 27. The weekly timeframe chart clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders remains bearish and declined significantly in 2026 due to geopolitical developments. Traders have been reducing their exposure to the euro in favor of the US dollar over the past eight months. Donald Trump's policies have not changed, but the dollar temporarily served as a safe-haven currency.

However, there are still no fundamental factors supporting further US dollar appreciation. The war in the Middle East temporarily made the dollar exceptionally attractive, while the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance provided another boost to the US currency this year. Over the long term, the euro could decline as far as the 1.08 level (the trendline), but the upward trend would still remain valid. Nevertheless, in recent months, the market has been taking only positive factors for the dollar into account while ignoring all others.

The positioning of the red and blue indicator lines points to bearish dominance. During the latest reporting week, the number of long contracts held by the Non-commercial group increased by 4,200, while the number of short positions increased by 13,600. Consequently, the net position declined by another 9,400 over the week.

EUR/USD Analysis – 1H Chart

On the hourly timeframe, EUR/USD has the potential to develop an upward trend, but the pair remains within a sideways channel for now. A look at the daily and weekly timeframes suggests that the potential for a strong and prolonged trend remains considerable. However, the euro can only appreciate if market participants are willing to buy it. Over the past two months, there has been little interest in buying European currency. As long as the price remains within the sideways channel, an upward trend cannot be confirmed.

For November 6, the following trading levels are identified: 1.1006, 1.1115, 1.1154–1.1165, 1.1261–1.1274, 1.1362–1.1368, 1.1461–1.1473, 1.1536–1.1542, 1.1585, and 1.1657–1.1665. The Senkou Span B (1.1183) and Kijun-sen (1.1184) lines are also relevant. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day, which should be taken into account when identifying trading signals. Traders should also remember to move the Stop Loss to breakeven once the price has moved 15 points in the favorable direction. This helps protect against potential losses if the signal proves false.

On Friday, the European Union will publish a relatively minor retail sales report, while the United States will release the much more important labor market and unemployment reports. Average earnings data and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will also be published. Therefore, significant market volatility is likely during the second half of the day.

Summary of the Analysis:

Traders may consider short positions with a target near 1.1115, as the price has once again failed to break above the 1.1261–1.1274 level, while the Ichimoku indicator lines provide weak signals under current sideways market conditions. If the price rebounds from the Kijun-sen or Senkou Span B line, a target of 1.1261–1.1274 may be considered for long positions.

Explanations for the Charts:

Support and resistance levels are represented by thick red lines. Price movements may end near these levels, but they do not serve as sources of trading signals.

The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the 4-hour timeframe to the hourly timeframe. They are considered strong technical levels.

Extremum levels are represented by thin red lines from which the price has previously rebounded. They serve as sources of trading signals.

Yellow lines represent trendlines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts shows the size of the net position held by each category of traders.

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The British pound is trading around 1.3447 within a small secondary uptrend channel and is pulling back after encountering strong resistance near the upper band of the main channel and around the 5/8 Murray level.

If the British pound decisively breaks below the secondary uptrend channel in the coming hours and consolidates below the 21-period simple moving average (SMA) at 1.3450, this will be considered a signal to open short positions. We expect GBP/USD to reach the Murray 4/8 line around 1.3427 and, ultimately, the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) around 1.3366.

Conversely, if the British pound rebounds above the 21-period simple moving average (SMA) and remains within the uptrend channel, this will be considered an opportunity to buy above 1.3450 with targets at 1.3488; ultimately, we expect GBP/USD to reach the upper band of the channel at 1.3528.

Since US government employment data is released on the first Friday of each month, the British pound could come under strong downward pressure if the NFPs are negative; hence, GBP/USD could plunge to 1.3366.

We should keep an eye on the 1.3427 area. A technical bounce above this level could be seen as an opportunity to continue buying in the coming days, whereas a drop below the 4/8 Murray line could change the outlook for the British pound—we could expect it to reach the 200 EMA around 1. 3360, and finally, we expect GBP/USD to fall to the lower band of the uptrend channel around 1.3300.

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The NASDAQ 100 Industrial Index, which comprises the 100 largest US companies by market capitalization, is trading around 26,953 points.

The NQ 100 is recovering after hitting a low of 26,273 points and has returned above the Murray 2/8 line, within the downtrend channel that has been forming since October 22.

Companies such as SanDisk Corporation and Astera Labs fell 16% and 17%, respectively, and other companies reporting negative results contributed to the sharp decline in the NASDAQ.

The H4 chart shows the losses recorded during the trading session on Thursday, November 5. If the NQ consolidates above the Murray 2/8 level, around 26,562, in the coming hours, this could be considered a buy signal with targets at the Murray 3/8 level, around 27,343. Ultimately, we expect the index to reach the Murray 4/8 level, around 28,125.

If the NASDAQ pulls back toward the 2/8 Murray level in the coming hours, it will be a buying opportunity, with a target of 28,125 (4/8). Conversely, this zone could also be considered an opportunity to open short positions, anticipating that the index will return to the 2/8 Murray level.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading around 51,244 points after posting a sharp decline upon encountering significant resistance around the 5/8 Murray level.

The Dow Jones 30 has fallen below 53,900 points to 51,244 points—a drop of more than 3% over the past 12 hours— so we believe it could continue to fall in the coming hours until it reaches the 1/8 Murray level, around 50,781 points, and could even touch the psychological level of 50,000.

Shares of one of the 30 most liquid companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average—NVIDIA Corporation—fell more than 8%, and we also observed that Cisco Systems shares dropped 6%. These stocks, along with others, were the main drivers of the Dow Jones Industrial Average's decline, so it is likely to continue falling, as US employment data will be released tomorrow.

From a technical perspective, if the Dow rebounds toward the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), currently at 52,199, or toward the 3/8 Murray level, around 52,343, this will be seen as an opportunity to open short positions, and we could expect it to target 50,781 and 50,000 points in the coming days.

On the other hand, if the price consolidates above 50,781—around the 1/8 Murray level—in the coming hours, it could be considered a buying opportunity, with targets at 52,199 and 52,343—around the 3/8 Murray level.

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The GBP/USD currency pair also remained largely unchanged throughout most of Thursday. However, it is worth noting that the euro and the pound have been trading very differently in recent weeks. While the British currency has been rising for several consecutive weeks, in line with broader market conditions, the euro has been trading sideways for a month. Therefore, the lack of gains in the euro is not surprising, whereas the pound had reasons to appreciate during Thursday's trading session.

Essentially, the Bank of England made exactly the decision the market had expected. Several weeks ago, it became clear that the British regulator would have to begin tightening monetary policy, as inflation in the United Kingdom was expected to reach 4% by the end of the year. Consequently, traders anticipated a hawkish decision from the Bank of England, and that expectation was confirmed. However, the outcome of the Bank of England's meeting was even more hawkish than anticipated. Most analysts expected seven of the nine Monetary Policy Committee members to vote in favor of raising interest rates. In reality, the entire committee unanimously supported the increase. This means that the market may have already priced in the rate hike in advance, but it could not have anticipated such a hawkish stance from the regulator.

What does a more hawkish stance from the regulator indicate? It suggests that interest rates could be raised again at the final meeting in December. It also indicates that the Bank of England may implement at least three or four additional monetary tightening measures. If the Monetary Policy Committee's voting results had been less decisive, it would have been reasonable to conclude that its members were uncertain about the need to raise interest rates as soon as possible. However, the voting results demonstrated that there was no such uncertainty.

Therefore, the British currency may continue to appreciate against the US dollar. First, the price has not yet reached the upper boundary of the sideways channel on the daily timeframe. Second, it has also not reached the upper boundary of the sideways channel on the weekly timeframe. Third, the global upward trend that began in 2022 remains intact and has not been invalidated. Fourth, the Bank of England is expected to raise its key interest rate at least as many times as the Federal Reserve. Fifth, geopolitical developments are unlikely to trigger another major wave of market panic, meaning that the US dollar is unlikely to receive further support from this factor.

The outlook remains that the market has already priced in the factors supporting the US dollar several times over. Essentially, geopolitical developments were the main reason behind the dollar's appreciation in 2026, while the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening was a consequence of those geopolitical factors. Moreover, the dollar should not have benefited significantly from tighter US monetary policy because the Bank of England is also raising its key interest rate. The British regulator may have started tightening monetary policy a month and a half later, but the market began pricing in Federal Reserve rate hikes back in the summer. Despite this considerable advantage, the dollar has failed to achieve substantial gains in 2026. A look at the weekly timeframe reveals a prolonged sideways movement that has already lasted 16 months.

The average volatility of GBP/USD over the last five trading days stands at 63 points. This is considered an average level for the pound/dollar pair. On Friday, November 6, the pair is therefore expected to trade within a range bounded by 1.3418 and 1.3544. The higher linear regression channel has turned downward again. The CCI indicator entered oversold territory twice and also formed a bullish divergence, signaling the end of the downward trend.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.3428

S2 – 1.3367

S3 – 1.3306

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.3489

R2 – 1.3550

R3 – 1.3611

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair continues to follow an upward trend that may form part of the broader trend that began in 2022. Donald Trump's policies are likely to continue putting pressure on the US economy, so substantial long-term gains in the US dollar are not expected. So far, 2026 has been relatively favorable for the dollar due to geopolitical developments and inflation, which prompted capital outflows from riskier assets and forced the Federal Reserve to resume monetary tightening. However, the weekly timeframe still shows a sideways range between 1.3150 and 1.3780 within the four-year upward trend. This suggests that the British currency could continue appreciating over the medium term.

Long positions with targets at 1.3544 and 1.3550 may be considered if the price remains above the moving average. If the price moves below the moving average, short positions may be considered with targets at 1.3367 and 1.3306.

Explanations for the Charts:

Linear regression channels help identify the current trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the current trend is strong.

The moving average (settings: 20.0, smoothed) identifies the short-term trend and indicates the preferred trading direction.

Murray levels serve as targets for price movements and corrections.

Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the probable price channel within which the currency pair is expected to trade over the next 24 hours, based on current volatility readings.

The CCI indicator: entry into oversold territory (below -250) or overbought territory (above +250) indicates that a reversal in the opposite direction may be approaching.

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The EUR/USD currency pair traded in both directions throughout Thursday, as traders failed to reach a consensus on how to interpret the results of the US elections. On the one hand, Donald Trump has lost his complete and unconditional control over Congress. The US president can no longer make absolutely every decision independently without consulting Congress. On the other hand, the powers of the US president are extensive, meaning that congressional approval is still unnecessary for many of Trump's decisions.

One important detail should be taken into account. Donald Trump may act unconstitutionally. For the occupant of the White House, this is an entirely normal practice. For example, Congress could vote to end the war with Iran, but Donald Trump could veto the bill or simply ignore it. The war would resume, the Democrats would appeal to the Supreme Court, and the Supreme Court would spend a year considering another case involving Trump. By the time the court issued its ruling, the war with Iran might already be over. Therefore, the loss of control over Congress is unlikely to be a problem that would prevent Donald Trump from carrying on with his presidential duties.

There are only a few issues on which Trump will have to negotiate with the Democrats. The budget is one example. The Democrats could block any new spending proposals put forward by the US president. Trump wants to continue the war with Iran, which requires additional funding. Therefore, until the Democrats approve next year's budget, the United States could face another government shutdown, and Trump would not receive additional funds for military operations. However, even in this situation, a way around the problem may be found. The United States has reserve funds that Trump can access. After all, the US president is highly skilled at interpreting various laws and applying them broadly. It would not be surprising if Trump redirected some healthcare funding toward the war in Iran, claiming that he has every right to do so because both expenditures fall within a similar area of budget spending. The Democrats would then have to prove in court that Trump had no legal right to take such action. While the courts considered all the lawsuits, Trump's presidential term would come to an end. He will certainly not become US president for a third time.

Thus, the Republican president makes better use of the opportunities provided by US legislation than many of his colleagues. Consequently, there is strong reason to believe that Trump will find a way to resume the war in the Middle East if he wishes to do so. Moreover, the president himself acknowledged that the war with Iran was the reason behind the Republicans' defeat in the elections. Therefore, it would not be surprising if Trump sought to retaliate against Tehran.

Two days ago, the oil market reacted very positively to the election results. The reasoning was straightforward: Trump had lost the election, meaning that the war would soon end and oil prices would fall to $60–70 per barrel. Against this background, oil prices did indeed decline from $116 to $97 per barrel. However, on Thursday, Brent and other oil benchmarks began rising again as markets started questioning whether events would unfold as easily and favorably as initially expected following the elections. As for the European currency, it managed to climb to the 1.1270 level, which can be considered the upper boundary of the sideways channel that has been in place for the past month, before immediately retreating. Nothing has changed for the euro this week: the market continues to show little interest in buying the currency.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days, as of November 6, stands at 70 points and is classified as "medium." On Friday, the pair is expected to trade between the 1.1165 and 1.1305 levels. The higher linear regression channel is pointing downward, indicating another potential trend reversal. The CCI indicator entered the oversold territory five times and formed four bullish divergences, but traders ignored all these signals. The irrational downward trend remains in place.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.1108

S2 – 1.0986

S3 – 1.0864

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.1230

R2 – 1.1353

R3 – 1.1475

Trading Recommendations:

EUR/USD remains in a downward trend that lacks sufficient fundamental, macroeconomic, and geopolitical factors to justify further declines. The overall fundamental background remains unfavorable for the US dollar. However, in 2026, geopolitical developments, followed by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, provided substantial support for the US currency. If the price remains below the moving average, short positions can be considered with targets at 1.1165 and 1.1108. If the price moves above the moving average, long positions become relevant, with targets at 1.1305 and 1.1353.

Explanations for the Charts:

Linear regression channels – help identify the current trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the current trend is strong.

The moving average (settings: 20.0, smoothed) identifies the short-term trend and indicates the preferred trading direction.

Murray levels serve as targets for price movements and corrections.

Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the probable price channel within which the currency pair is expected to trade over the next 24 hours, based on current volatility readings.

The CCI indicator: entry into oversold territory (below -250) or overbought territory (above +250) indicates that a reversal in the opposite direction may be approaching.

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W pi?tek w kalendarzu wydarze? fundamentalnych znalaz?a si? seria wyst?pie? przedstawicieli Rezerwy Federalnej, a tak?e przem?wienie Huwa Pilla, g??wnego ekonomisty Banku Anglii. Po wczorajszym posiedzeniu Banku Anglii kwestia perspektyw polityki pieni??nej jest ju? w zasadzie jasna: nale?y spodziewa? si? dalszych podwy?ek st?p procentowych, jako ?e ca?y Komitet Polityki Pieni??nej jednog?o?nie opowiada si? za kontynuacj? zacie?niania polityki. Podobnie sytuacja wygl?da w przypadku Rezerwy Federalnej – cho? w pa?dzierniku ameryka?ski bank centralny wstrzyma? podwy?ki, powszechnie oczekuje si?, ?e po grudniowym, ostatnim w tym roku posiedzeniu, stopy procentowe zostan? podniesione ponownie.

Sytuacja geopolityczna pozostaje niekorzystna. Stany Zjednoczone i Iran nie prowadz? obecnie oficjalnych negocjacji, a po zdecydowanym zwyci?stwie Demokrat?w w wyborach, sam Donald Trump wydaje si? niepewny co do dalszego post?powania wobec Iranu. Demokraci zapowiedzieli, ?e b?d? domaga? si? zako?czenia wojny na Bliskim Wschodzie – stanowisko to spotyka si? ze zdecydowanym sprzeciwem Trumpa. W zwi?zku z tym jest jeszcze zbyt wcze?nie, by oczekiwa? zako?czenia konfliktu zbrojnego; dzia?ania wojenne mog? zosta? wznowione w ka?dej chwili.

Podsumowanie:

Podczas ostatniej sesji w tym tygodniu zmienno?? na rynkach mo?e by? wysoka ze wzgl?du na publikacj? istotnych danych z ameryka?skiego rynku pracy. Kurs euro pozostaje w trendzie bocznym i prawdopodobnie utrzyma si? w nim do ko?ca dzisiejszej sesji. Funt brytyjski kontynuuje trend wzrostowy. W przypadku euro mo?na spodziewa? si? notowa? w przedziale 1,1198–1,1218, natomiast dla funta zakres ten wynosi 1,3456–1,3476.

Podstawowe zasady systemu handlowego:

1. Si?a sygna?u jest okre?lana przez czas potrzebny na jego uformowanie (odbicie lub wybicie z poziomu). Im szybciej powstaje sygna?, tym jest on silniejszy.

2. Je?li dwie lub wi?cej pozycji zosta?o otwartych w pobli?u dowolnego poziomu w oparciu o fa?szywy sygna?, wszystkie kolejne sygna?y na tym poziomie nale?y zignorowa?.

3. W zakresie bocznym ka?da para mo?e generowa? wiele fa?szywych sygna??w lub nie generowa? ich wcale. Poziomy techniczne mog? zosta? zignorowane.

4. W godzinowym przedziale czasowym mo?na handlowa? za pomoc? sygna??w ze wska?nika MACD tylko przy du?ej zmienno?ci i wyra?nym trendzie, kt?ry powinien zosta? potwierdzony przez lini? trendu lub kana? trendu.

5. Je?li dwa poziomy znajduj? si? zbyt blisko siebie (5-20 pips?w), nale?y je traktowa? jako stref? wsparcia lub oporu.

6. Kiedy cena poruszy si? we w?a?ciwym kierunku o 15 pips?w, nale?y ustawi? Stop Loss na pr?g rentowno?ci.

Na wykresie:

Poziomy wsparcia i oporu to poziomy, kt?re s?u?? jako cele przy kupnie lub sprzeda?y pary.

Czerwone linie to kana?y lub linie trendu, kt?re wy?wietlaj? aktualny trend i pokazuj?, w kt?rym kierunku lepiej jest teraz handlowa?.

Wska?nik MACD (14, 22, 3) sk?ada si? z histogramu i linii sygna?u - to wska?nik pomocniczy, kt?ry mo?e by? r?wnie? wykorzystany jako ?r?d?o sygna?u.

Wa?ne przem?wienia i raporty ekonomiczne, kt?re zawsze mo?na znale?? w kalendarzu ekonomicznym, mog? powa?nie wp?yn?? na ruch pary walutowej. Dlatego w momencie ich publikacji zalecamy bardzo ostro?ny handel lub wyj?cie z rynku, aby unikn?? gwa?townych waha? cen.

Pocz?tkuj?cy traderzy powinni pami?ta?, ?e nie ka?da pojedyncza transakcja musi przynosi? zyski. Opracowanie jasnej strategii i zarz?dzanie ?rodkami to klucz do udanego handlu w kontek?cie d?ugoterminowym.

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Thursday's Trade Analysis:

1H chart of GBP/USD.

The GBP/USD pair failed to extend its upward movement on Thursday, despite having every reason to do so. Yesterday, the Bank of England held its penultimate meeting of the year, during which the key interest rate was raised for the first time in several years. This decision by the British regulator did not come as a surprise to the market. However, the Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously in favor of the increase, whereas traders had expected only 7 out of 9 members to support the rate hike. This did not change the Bank of England's decision itself, but it did indicate a more hawkish stance from the central bank than the market had anticipated. Thus, the pound had every opportunity to continue its upward trend on the hourly chart but ultimately took a short pause. The outlook remains bullish for the British currency, with a potential advance to at least the 1.3650 level. Today, GBP/USD movements will depend on the US unemployment and labor market reports.

5M chart of GBP/USD.

No trading signals were formed on the 5-minute timeframe on Thursday. During the European trading session, the price declined to the 1.3456–1.3476 level and remained mostly within this range for the rest of the day. No clear consolidation above or below this area occurred. There was virtually no market reaction to the Bank of England's hawkish meeting.

How to Trade on Friday:

On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD continues to develop an upward trend. Overall, the British pound is trading much more logically than the euro, giving it a good chance of extending its upward movement. The technical picture across almost all timeframes supports further gains in the British currency. Fundamental factors and the US dollar's overbought condition also support further growth in GBP/USD.

On Friday, beginner traders may consider short positions targeting 1.3380–1.3386 if the price consolidates below the 1.3456–1.3476 level. Long positions may be opened with a target of 1.3587–1.3598 if the price consolidates above the 1.3456–1.3476 level.

On the 5-minute timeframe, trading can currently be considered around the following levels: 1.3043, 1.3096–1.3107, 1.3175–1.3180, 1.3259–1.3267, 1.3319–1.3331, 1.3380–1.3386, 1.3456–1.3476, 1.3587–1.3598, and 1.3631–1.3641. There are no economic events scheduled in the UK on Friday. However, the United States will release important reports on the labor market, unemployment, and consumer sentiment. These reports could trigger a strong market reaction, which will depend entirely on how the actual figures compare with forecasts.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time required for it to form (a rebound or a break of a level). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades based on false signals have been opened near a particular level, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. During sideways trading, any currency pair may generate numerous false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to trade MACD indicator signals only when volatility is sufficiently high and a trend is confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
5. If two levels are located too close to each other (within 5–20 points), they should be treated as a single support or resistance area.
6. Once the price has moved 15 points in the favorable direction, the Stop Loss should be moved to breakeven.

What the Charts Show:

Price support and resistance levels (areas) – levels that serve as targets for opening buy or sell positions or as sources of trading signals.

Red lines – represent channels or trendlines that show the current trend and indicate the preferred trading direction.

The MACD (14, 22, 3) indicator — its histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also be used to generate trading signals.

Important speeches and economic reports (listed in the economic calendar) can have a significant impact on currency pair movements. Therefore, trading should be approached with extreme caution during their release, or positions should be closed to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.

Beginner Forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and applying proper money management are essential to achieving long-term trading success.

We would like to inform you about changes in trading hours with InstaForex on April 18 and 21, 2025.

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Closed full day:

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Closed full day:

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• DAX 30
• Swiss Market Index
• IBEX35
• Netherlands 25 Index
• FTSE MIB
• STOXX Europe 50
• Australia 200 Index
• CAC40

Thursday's Trade Analysis:

1H chart of EUR/USD.

On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair once again failed to break above the 1.1267 level, which serves as the upper boundary of the sideways channel on the hourly timeframe. As a result, the pair rebounded from this level again and remained within the sideways channel in which it has been trading for a month. As the euro failed to extend its gains once again, a move toward the lower boundary of the sideways channel, in the 1.1104–1.1114 level, can be expected. The euro continues to demonstrate weakness. More precisely, the market continues to show a complete lack of interest in the single European currency. There were no significant events in the European Union or the United States yesterday, and market attention was focused entirely on the Bank of England's meeting. Today, the US Nonfarm Payrolls report and unemployment rate are due for release, and they could trigger high volatility. However, the euro is likely to remain within the sideways channel.

5M chart of EUR/USD.

Two trading signals were formed on the 5-minute timeframe on Thursday. At the beginning of the European trading session, the price rebounded from the 1.1267–1.1275 level, providing an opportunity for beginner traders to open simple short positions. A few hours later, the 1.1198–1.1218 level was tested, where profits could have been taken. The rebound from this area provided an opportunity to open long positions. However, the pair did not make any significant moves for the rest of the day, so the profit from this trade was minimal or zero.

How to Trade on Friday:

On the hourly timeframe, EUR/USD maintains a downward trend, which remains firmly established, while the pair continues to move sideways between the 1.1114 and 1.1267 levels. The euro has failed to stage a meaningful correction in recent weeks, although the possibility of an upward trend emerging cannot be ruled out. Considering all the developments of recent months, there is no clear reason why the European currency should have declined so sharply. At present, the US dollar is significantly overbought, while a large number of factors supporting the euro's appreciation are being ignored by the market.

On Friday, beginner traders may consider opening short positions if the price consolidates below the 1.1198–1.1218 level, with a target of 1.1104–1.1114. Long positions may be considered if the price rebounds from the 1.1198–1.1218 level, with a target of 1.1267–1.1275.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered: 1.1011, 1.1104–1.1114, 1.1198–1.1218, 1.1267–1.1275, 1.1366–1.1377, 1.1461–1.1474, 1.1527–1.1531, 1.1584–1.1594, and 1.1655–1.1665. On Friday, the European Union will publish a relatively minor retail sales report, while the United States will release the much more important Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment reports. The market reaction to the latter two releases could be significant.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time required for it to form (a rebound or a break of a level). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades based on false signals have been opened near a particular level, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. During sideways trading, any currency pair may generate numerous false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to trade MACD indicator signals only when volatility is sufficiently high and a trend is confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
5. If two levels are located too close to each other (within 5–20 points), they should be treated as a single support or resistance area.
6. Once the price has moved 15 points in the favorable direction, the Stop Loss should be moved to breakeven.

What the Charts Show:

Price support and resistance levels (areas) – levels that serve as targets for opening buy or sell positions or as sources of trading signals.

Red lines – represent channels or trendlines that show the current trend and indicate the preferred trading direction.

The MACD (14, 22, 3) indicator — its histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also be used to generate trading signals.

Important speeches and economic reports (listed in the economic calendar) can have a significant impact on currency pair movements. Therefore, trading should be approached with extreme caution during their release, or positions should be closed to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.

Beginner Forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and applying proper money management are essential to achieving long-term trading success.

Why you can’t miss this event

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Stay tuned for updates and special offers!

The Elliott Wave structure on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has become more complex. On the higher timeframe (bottom chart), the downward trend segment has taken the form of a five-wave structure labeled A-B-C-D-E. This structure could be complete at any moment, as it appears fully developed. All the waves within this segment are approximately equal in size, which is why it is considered corrective. If this assumption is correct, the completion of this structure will be followed by the development of a bullish impulse segment, with targets located well above the 1.2000 level.

On the lower timeframe (top chart), an impulsive wave sequence continues to develop and may belong to wave E of the higher timeframe. If this is indeed the case, the dollar's strengthening is approaching its end, regardless of how strong its advance may be. The presumed wave 5 of E is either complete or nearing completion. In either case, the current wave structure suggests that the downward wave sequence is approaching completion on both timeframes. News developments and a sharp shift in market sentiment have triggered a substantial appreciation of the US dollar, but there are few remaining reasons for further dollar strength.

What Could Support the Euro?

The EUR/USD exchange rate initially rose by 40 points during Thursday's trading session before declining by 50 points, all while the economic calendar was virtually empty. In other words, the market had no clear fundamental reasons to either buy or sell the pair. Of course, in the absence of significant news, exchange rates cannot remain completely unchanged, as trading activity continues regardless. Therefore, today's movements in the euro can be classified as market noise.

However, the situation for the European currency has not improved this week. Despite accelerating inflation in the eurozone, which significantly increases the likelihood of more aggressive ECB rate hikes, and despite Donald Trump's party losing the elections, the euro has still failed to convince traders that buying the currency is justified. At the same time, the market remains concerned about a possible resumption of the war in the Middle East, as well as ongoing unrest and mass protests in France and several other European Union countries. The market still appears to be focusing exclusively on negative developments, which is why the euro remains at such low levels. But what could support the European currency?

As has become clear, the ECB is unlikely to provide significant support for demand for the euro. Could an end to the unrest in the EU help? An official end to the war in the Middle East? A reduction in geopolitical tensions in Europe? These factors could support buyers. However, it is worth noting that positive developments for the euro have also emerged over the past two months. The current Elliott Wave structure suggests that a bullish trend segment is developing on both timeframes. Nevertheless, the euro has failed to produce even a convincing corrective wave, let alone establish an entire upward trend. Therefore, most factors suggest that the period of dollar dominance is approaching its end, but the market remains strongly opposed to this view. Ultimately, exchange rates are driven by the market, not by wave patterns or the news flow.

General Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, the pair remains within a global corrective trend segment labeled A-B-C-D-E. However, this structure appears fully developed and may therefore be complete. This may be a favorable time not only to consider buying the European currency but also to anticipate the development of a sustained upward trend. According to the higher timeframe, the pair could be expected to rise to at least the 1.1700–1.1800 level. The failed attempt to break below the 1.1126 level, corresponding to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level (bottom chart, higher timeframe), also indicates that the market may be preparing for an upward move.

The higher timeframe shows a downward trend segment that has taken the form of an A-B-C-D-E structure. The internal wave structure of wave E has developed into a five-wave impulse pattern, which may already be complete. If this assumption is correct, a new upward trend segment should now begin to develop.

Key Principles of the Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to understand. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often involve changes in the wave count.
2. If there is no clear understanding of current market conditions, it is better to stay out of the market.
3. There can never be absolute certainty about the direction of market movement. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Elliott Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of market analysis and trading strategies.

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The EUR/USD pair reversed in favor of the euro late last week after liquidity was swept below the most recent low. Thus, there were technical grounds for a modest recovery in the European currency. However, at this point, bears have exactly the same grounds for launching their own attacks. Yesterday, liquidity was swept above the October 16 high. Of course, not every liquidity sweep necessarily signals a change in the direction of the market. However, it is worth noting that bulls are once again failing to take advantage of the opportunities available to them. This week alone, they had an opportunity to launch a sustained advance following the US elections and the eurozone inflation report. However, what difference have the election results and inflation figures made if the market had previously ignored these same factors?

Over the past two months, the fundamental backdrop has often favored the European currency, but this has had no noticeable impact on the charts. This week, it became clear that the Republican Party had suffered a decisive defeat in the elections and that inflation in the eurozone had accelerated to 4%. Both developments favor the euro. The US Congress will now be divided, and Democrats and Republicans are likely to find it just as difficult to reach agreements as before. Consequently, many important government decisions may now face significant delays. Higher inflation in the eurozone points to further monetary policy tightening by the ECB, which is also a bullish factor. If the market is pricing in an FOMC rate hike, it should also be pricing in an ECB rate hike.

It is worth recalling that one of the main reasons behind the dollar's appreciation over the past two months was the Fed's hawkish stance. However, in reality, the Fed's position is not particularly hawkish compared with those of other central banks. For example, the ECB is set to deliver its third rate hike in December, while the Bank of England only began its monetary policy tightening cycle today. This means that it could ultimately raise rates more aggressively than the Fed. The pound is responding to these factors, whereas the euro is not.

At present, there are no signs that the bearish advance is coming to an end. Imbalance 24 remains valid, and the price could react to it, potentially forming a sell signal. Bulls need to invalidate imbalance 24 and form bullish patterns before any meaningful recovery can be expected. This would require a sharp upward move in the euro, which has yet to materialize.

In September, the FOMC raised interest rates and signaled its readiness to begin tightening monetary policy. This was enough to trigger a substantial bearish advance that has continued to this day. However, even after the Fed tightened monetary policy in September and with further tightening possible in December, it would be incorrect to conclude that the euro has received no positive news during this period.

Overall, the fundamental backdrop continues to favor the bulls. Despite the Fed's more hawkish monetary policy stance, this is not the only factor determining exchange rates. The eurozone also faces economic challenges, but the point is that problems exist everywhere, while only the euro continues to decline. Both central banks are tightening monetary policy, yet only the dollar is appreciating. Nevertheless, it is not advisable to expect the euro to recover before bullish signals emerge. Buying the European currency in advance is also not recommended.

The current technical picture indicates that the bearish impulse remains intact. Among the relevant patterns, imbalance 24 remains in play and could be tested in the near future. The liquidity sweep above 1.1270 is also currently working in favor of the bears.

The economic data flow on Thursday was very weak from the traders' perspective, but they remained unfazed and returned to their preferred activity of recent months: selling the euro. A technical signal indicating further euro weakness has formed, so the current decline can be considered technically justified.

Bulls still have numerous reasons to launch attacks in 2026. Structurally and fundamentally, Trump's policies, which led to a significant decline in the dollar last year, have not changed. At present, there are no major factors supporting the US currency, despite the FOMC's hawkish stance. However, market sentiment does not change easily or quickly.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the European Union:

• Germany – Change in Industrial Production (07:00 UTC).
• European Union – Change in Retail Sales (10:00 UTC).
• United States – Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (13:30 UTC).
• United States – Unemployment Rate (13:30 UTC).
• United States – Change in Average Hourly Earnings (13:30 UTC).
• United States – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (15:00 UTC).

On November 6, the economic calendar contains six releases, at least two of which are important. Economic data could have a significant impact on market sentiment during the second half of Friday's trading session.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend that has been undergoing a corrective phase for an entire year. The fundamental backdrop shifted sharply in favor of the bears eight months ago, but the broader trend, which has been in place for four years, cannot be considered invalidated or complete. Bulls may resume their advance before the end of the year. However, their only meaningful opportunities at present are the 1.1066 low established in June last year and the 1.1114 low established several weeks ago. Liquidity was swept below the latter, but bulls lacked the strength even to push the price toward the nearest pattern. A new sell signal could form within imbalance 24, but the price must first reach that zone.

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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