15.02.2019 11:21 AM
GBP / USD: as the Brexit deadline approaches, the prospects for the pound look gloomier

This image is no longer relevant

In recent weeks, the pound has lost more than 2% in weight against the background of the fact that hopes for the implementation of the "soft" Brexit scenario or its postponement are gradually fading.

This image is no longer relevant

According to a number of experts, given the slowdown in the British economy and the low likelihood of a quick elimination of uncertainty around the divorce process, the prospects for the pound look rather bleak.

"The chances that Theresa May and the pound sterling will fall into the abyss on March 29 are increasing every minute," analysts at Commerzbank said.

On the eve of the House of Commons did not support the government's strategy for negotiations with the EU on the terms of the country's withdrawal from the alliance. May lost by 303 votes to 258.

Despite the fact that this vote was of a technical nature, its outcome does not oblige the cabinet to change its approach to Brexit, but rather enhances the feeling of a political crisis in the country and may adversely affect London's negotiations with Brussels.

In addition, the reluctance of the parties at any cost to reach a consensus on the issue of the so-called "backstop" reduces the likelihood that the UK will eventually manage to retain membership in the EU customs union and remain part of the single European market.

According to estimates from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, a pound can sit up to $ 1.10 if the United Kingdom leaves the EU without a deal.

"Even in the case of a quick settlement of issues related to Brexit, the weakness of the pound may persist due to fundamental factors," said BNY Mellon.

"The closer March 29, the more British companies will begin to implement emergency plans, which will slow the growth of the country's economy to about 0.2% in the first quarter, which will have a negative impact on the pound," said ING representatives.

Thus, it should be expected that with the Brexit deadline approaching, the pressure on the pound will only increase, at least until there is news of a potential compromise on the divorce agreement between the EU and Britain. In the meantime, markets do not even rule out the implementation of the "hard" scenario.

Viktor Isakov,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2023
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
  • Chancy Deposit
    Deposite US $ 3.000 em sua conta e receba $1000 mais!
    Em Junho nós sorteamos $1000 na campanha Chancy Deposit!
    Tenha a chance de ganhar, depositando $3,000 em sua conta de negociação. Após cumprir essa condição, você se torna um participante da campanha.
  • Trade Wise, Win Device
    Abasteça a sua conta com pelo menos $500, inscreva-se no concurso e tenha a chance de ganhar dispositivos móveis.
  • Bônus de 100%
    Sua oportunidade única de receber um bônus de 100% em seu depósito
  • Bônus de 55%
    Solicite um bônus de 55% em cada depósito
  • Bônus de 30%
    Receba um bônus de 30% toda vez que você fizer um depósito em sua conta

Recommended Stories

Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback