15.02.2019 11:21 AM
GBP / USD: as the Brexit deadline approaches, the prospects for the pound look gloomier

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In recent weeks, the pound has lost more than 2% in weight against the background of the fact that hopes for the implementation of the "soft" Brexit scenario or its postponement are gradually fading.

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According to a number of experts, given the slowdown in the British economy and the low likelihood of a quick elimination of uncertainty around the divorce process, the prospects for the pound look rather bleak.

"The chances that Theresa May and the pound sterling will fall into the abyss on March 29 are increasing every minute," analysts at Commerzbank said.

On the eve of the House of Commons did not support the government's strategy for negotiations with the EU on the terms of the country's withdrawal from the alliance. May lost by 303 votes to 258.

Despite the fact that this vote was of a technical nature, its outcome does not oblige the cabinet to change its approach to Brexit, but rather enhances the feeling of a political crisis in the country and may adversely affect London's negotiations with Brussels.

In addition, the reluctance of the parties at any cost to reach a consensus on the issue of the so-called "backstop" reduces the likelihood that the UK will eventually manage to retain membership in the EU customs union and remain part of the single European market.

According to estimates from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, a pound can sit up to $ 1.10 if the United Kingdom leaves the EU without a deal.

"Even in the case of a quick settlement of issues related to Brexit, the weakness of the pound may persist due to fundamental factors," said BNY Mellon.

"The closer March 29, the more British companies will begin to implement emergency plans, which will slow the growth of the country's economy to about 0.2% in the first quarter, which will have a negative impact on the pound," said ING representatives.

Thus, it should be expected that with the Brexit deadline approaching, the pressure on the pound will only increase, at least until there is news of a potential compromise on the divorce agreement between the EU and Britain. In the meantime, markets do not even rule out the implementation of the "hard" scenario.

Viktor Isakov,
الخبير التحليلي لدى شركة إنستافوركس
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