EUR/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair performed an increase to the corrective level of 38.2% (1.1066), after performing a rebound from the Fibo level of 61.8% (1.0995). All movements continue to remain within the downward trend range, which preserves the probability of a resumption of the fall of the euro/dollar pair. Quoting of quotes from the Fibo level of 38.2% will work in favor of the US currency and the resumption of decline in the direction of the correction level of 61.8%. Similarly, in favor of the US currency, a rebound from the top line of the trend channel will work. Today, the divergence is not observed in any indicator.
Last week, the euro/dollar pair ended with an increase of 80 points, although there were plenty of reasons to continue falling within the downward range. I believe that the most important events of the week were in favor of the US currency. These events include two speeches by Jerome Powell and European inflation. Only the industrial production in the US has disappointed traders. But what does the new week have in store for us?
Unfortunately, this week will be extremely boring for traders. No important economic reports will be released this week either in America or in the European Union. Within a week, there will be reports on the number of issued building permits in the USA, the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the USA, an indicator of consumer confidence in the EU and intermediate values of business activity indexes in the services and production sectors of the European Union and the USA. Also, the ECB Chairman Christine Lagarde will make a statement and publish the minutes of the last Fed meeting. And from all this list of news, I would single out only the performance of Ms. Lagarde, from whom traders expect information. All other reports are unlikely to be able to move the euro/dollar pair by more than 20-30 points. In recent weeks, the activity of traders has decreased very much, and the information background this week does not look able to activate the forex market.
Thus, I think that the most interesting awaits us on Friday. Speech by Christine Lagarde will immediately have a double meaning and cause double interest among traders. Firstly, this is one of the first official speeches of Mrs. Lagarde, which may be devoted to issues of monetary policy and plans of the ECB for the coming months. Secondly, although markets now do not expect a new rate cut, economic data from the EU have been showing weakness for more than a month, and most importantly, a tendency to an even greater deceleration and decline. Thus, if the economic situation in the EU does not change, the ECB will have to intervene again by lowering interest rates. Accordingly, Christine Lagarde might hint at possible ECB actions, as Jerome Powell hinted last week in Congress.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:
On November 18, traders will be in thought, because no news is expected on this day, and the euro-dollar pair has reached a correction level of 38.2% (1.1066), which must either be passed or a rebound from it. Thus, the further dynamics of the pair will depend on the specified level. Given the direction of the trend range, I expect more rebound with the resumption of falling quotes. The mood of traders may change significantly only on Friday, after the speech of Ms. Christine Lagarde.
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of October 1, 2019, and October 21, 2019.
