Analysis of previous deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair simply "died" on Wednesday. Volatility was 28 points at one point. This is the absolute low. Despite the fact that the trend line was broken during the course, the pair's movement was still sideways. Thus, on the eve of the announcement of the results of the Federal Reserve meeting, the markets show that they do not want to take risks at all and will wait for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech. Based on this, there is, by and large, nothing to analyze on the 30-minute timeframe. There is no movement. Therefore, we advise novice traders to close all transactions in which they are at a given time and just watch the situation. It is impossible to predict what decisions the Fed will make and what Powell will say at the press conference. And even more so, there is no point in trying to guess. Tomorrow, when the markets more or less calm down from everything Powell said, it will be possible to conduct a new analysis and figure out how to trade the pair further.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
On the 5-minute timeframe, the technical picture on Wednesday was classic for a movement with low volatility and complete flat. The pair found the level closest to it - 1.1735 - and began to "dance" around it. Since there was a flat all day, it is not surprising that the price reached this level or crossed it many times. This is not a weak level, this is a weak movement. With such a movement, nothing else can be expected. Nevertheless, novice traders could try to work out those signals that have formed. In principle, even in the morning it was impossible to conclude unambiguously that there would be a flat during the day. In the morning, the EUR/USD pair even tried to show an upward movement, which ended very quickly. Nevertheless, the pair reached the level of 1.1735, bounced off it and formed, thus, the first sell signal. At this point, beginners could enter short positions. They should have been held open until the middle of the US trading session, when the price settled above the 1.1735 level. Although by the beginning of this session it became clear that a total flat had formed in the market, so one could have left the deal much earlier, with zero profit. Nevertheless, if traders still waited to overcome the level of 1.1735, they received a loss of 10 points. That's not a lot. Remember that every trade cannot be profitable. Further, it was no longer necessary to open any positions, since by the middle of the US session it was already clearly visible that the market was flat, and several false signals had already formed around the level of 1.1735.
How to trade on Thursday:
The EUR/USD pair broke the downward trend on the 30-minute timeframe, consolidating above the trend line. However, at the moment this does not mean anything, since the results of the Fed meeting will be announced, after which the pair may "fly away" far and in any direction. Therefore, tomorrow morning you will need to look at the chart and analyze it. On the 5-minute timeframe, it is recommended to trade from the levels of 1.1704, 1.1735, 1.1750, 1.1775. Take Profit, as before, is set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss - to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 15 points. At the 5M TF, the target can be the nearest level if it is not too close or too far away. If located - then you should act according to the situation. On Thursday, the European Union and the United States will publish business activity indices for the services and manufacturing sectors. These reports are not highly significant even in normal times. Markets only react to them if the indices rally or fall unexpectedly. Tomorrow, when the markets are still under the impression of the results of the Fed meeting, the likelihood of working out these indices is negligible.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the GBP/USD review.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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