On Thursday, data on Factory Orders in Germany was worse than even negative forecast (-2.7% vs. -0.7%) and in the US data was better ISM Non-Manufacturing in August was 58.6 vs. 55.2 and Factory Orders in July -2.4% vs. -3.4%. Mario Draghi made additional pressure on market participants when he said that during the ECB meeting the possibility to cut key rate had been under consideration. The euro dropped 86 points.

Today is a very important day; there are many key events which may influence the situation on the market. Silvio Berlusconi threats to ruin the governmental coalition particularly today. Yesterday during the first working day of G-20 it was not paid special attention to the Syrian question. Vladimir Putin defined it as a secondary one. Apparently today they will not come to agreement. At 10:00 UTC+4 data on Trade Balance in Germany in July is published, forecast 15.9 billion euro vs. 15.7 billion in June. At 14:00 UTC+4 Industrial Production in Germany in July is revealed, forecast -0.3% vs. 2.4% in the previous month. At 18:30 UTC+4 data on US Non-Farm Employment Change in August is issued, forecast 180K vs. 162K in July. All factors suggest the US dollar will strength.

Leaders of the world’s biggest economies grappled with fallout from potential stimulus exit as the BRICS countries said they will create an initial $100 billion fund of currency reserves to guard against financial shocks. And even if the sum is not too big, the fact of agreement is countermeasure to the IMF and the World Bank. As a rule, if there are any doubts in the US dollar power, the US starts to strengthen it sharply.

From the technical point of view, we expect the decline to the support of trend line on the daily chart 1.3100. Consolidation under the line will send the euro to support of trend line on the H4, 1.3034. If the price consolidates above the testing level of 1.3140, movement to the resistance of 1.3168 is possible.