26.11.2021 04:36 AM
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. November 26. Thanksgiving is not a reason to rest. Trade negotiations on Northern Ireland will drag on for several months.

4-hour timeframe

This image is no longer relevant

Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

The GBP/USD currency pair continued to decline slowly on Thursday. If the European currency paused at least for a while, which could be associated with Thanksgiving in the United States, then the pound did not consider it necessary to do downtime. Therefore, yesterday the lows of the year were once again updated around the 33rd level. The technical picture for the pound/dollar pair is now approximately the same as for the euro/dollar pair. All indicators are pointing downwards, signaling a downward trend. Market participants are not waiting for "macroeconomics" or "foundations" to get the necessary grounds for new sales of the pound for dollars. From time to time, of course, there are corrections, but in general, the fall of the pair is very strong. We have also already discussed the reasons for this fall in recent articles. First, it should be clearly understood that both the euro and the pound are falling now. Synchronously. This suggests that most of the reasons lie overseas, and not in the UK or the European Union. Second, most of the possible reasons for the dollar's growth have been known for a long time, but the US dollar has become more active only in the last few weeks or months. For most of 2021, it was hardly adjusted against the global upward trend of 2020. Thus, most likely, the matter is in the mood of the market, which believes that the Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy, curtail the QE program. In the same UK, for comparison, there is only talk about this. Yes, two members of the monetary committee voted for a rate hike at the last meeting, and three voted for curtailing the stimulus program. But who said that in the next month or two their number will grow to five, which will allow tightening monetary policy? Recall that the situation in the UK is also not the most favorable with the "coronavirus" and with the economy after Brexit. Britain remains in second place in the world in the number of new cases of the disease – more than a million in the last 4 weeks. Even in Germany, where the incidence rates are already twice as high as the peaks of the third and second "waves", and the Minister of Health is forced to threaten the country's residents with death if they do not get vaccinated, less.

Maros Sefcovic: trade negotiations on Northern Ireland will continue next year.

In recent articles, we have repeatedly mentioned the problematic situation that has developed between Britain and the EU against the background of the "Northern Ireland Protocol". Therefore, everyone is now interested in answers to the following questions:

1) How long will the new negotiations between London and Brussels last?

2) What are the chances of a peaceful settlement of the dispute?

Even if this topic does not directly affect the exchange rate of the pound sterling at this time, but, you must agree, when threats begin to sound from both sides, in particular about a trade war, it cannot but strain market participants. It would not be enough for the same war to start between the Kingdom and the Alliance as between China and the United States! Meanwhile, the vice-president of the European Commission, Maros Sefcovic, said that negotiations are likely to continue next year. This means that no one believes in a speedy resolution of the problematic situation along the Northern Ireland border. Maros admitted that he was too optimistic when he said that negotiations on the "Northern Ireland protocol" could be completed before Christmas. "I think that if our colleagues from the UK have a clear desire, these problems could be solved as soon as possible. But looking at how far we have come in the last four weeks, and at the level of detail that our British colleagues want to discuss, I think we will not be able to resolve all issues before the end of the year," the vice-president of the European Commission said. Thus, it seems that a new multi-month series called "UK-EU Negotiations" is waiting for us. Or rather, it's the second season. Or the third one already. One way or another, it should still be remembered that it is in the interests of both sides to agree amicably. Therefore, so far we believe that a trade war will be avoided.

This image is no longer relevant

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 73 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "average". On Friday, November 26, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.3248 and 1.3394. The upward reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator signals a round of upward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3306

S2 – 1.3275.

S3 – 1.3245

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3336

R2 – 1.3367

R3 – 1.3397

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair continues to move downwards on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, at this time, it is necessary to remain in short positions with the targets of 1.3275 and 1.3248 levels until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns upwards. Buy orders can be considered in the case of a confident consolidation of the price above the moving average with targets of 1.3428 and 1.3458 and keep them open until the Heiken Ashi turns down.

Explanations to the illustrations:

Linear regression channels - help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, then the trend is strong now.

Moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) - determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted now.

Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility levels (red lines) - the likely price channel in which the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators.

CCI indicator - its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or into the overbought area (above +250) means that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

Paolo Greco,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2023
Euro vs US Dollar
Select timeframe
Start trade
Start trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
  • Chancy Deposit
    Deposite US $ 3.000 em sua conta e receba $8000 mais!
    Em Março nós sorteamos $8000 na campanha Chancy Deposit!
    Tenha a chance de ganhar, depositando $3,000 em sua conta de negociação. Após cumprir essa condição, você se torna um participante da campanha.
  • Trade Wise, Win Device
    Abasteça a sua conta com pelo menos $500, inscreva-se no concurso e tenha a chance de ganhar dispositivos móveis.
  • Bônus de 100%
    Sua oportunidade única de receber um bônus de 100% em seu depósito
  • Bônus de 55%
    Solicite um bônus de 55% em cada depósito
  • Bônus de 30%
    Receba um bônus de 30% toda vez que você fizer um depósito em sua conta

Recommended Stories

EUR/USD. Visão geral para 24 de março de 2023.

O par de moedas EUR/USD ainda está subindo como se nada tivesse mudado. As moedas europeia e americana não sofreram muitos incidentes ou notícias de última hora na quinta-feira

Paolo Greco 19:14 2023-03-24 UTC+2

O dólar cai enquanto o Fed anuncia uma política menos agressiva.

O Fed havia aumentado sua taxa de juros-chave em um quarto de ponto percentual. No entanto, mudou de tática, muito provavelmente porque está se preparando para uma pausa na subida

Irina Yanina 15:59 2023-03-24 UTC+2

Os investimentos em petróleo e gás estão diminuindo.

A Comissão de Transição Energética do Reino Unido disse em seu recente relatório que, para mudar para um planeta limpo e sem emissões até 2050, o investimento na transição energética

Irina Yanina 15:15 2023-03-24 UTC+2

Bitcoin ganha impulso.

Enquanto os investidores em ativos tradicionais vacilam entre Medo e Ganância, o bitcoin está subindo constantemente. Desde o início do ano, o token acumula alta de 71% e deve fechar

Marek Petkovich 14:16 2023-03-24 UTC+2

As reuniões do BCE, do Banco da Inglaterra e do Fed terminaram. Que conclusões podem ser tiradas?

Há algum tempo, o mercado está antecipando as reuniões do banco central em março e, nas últimas semanas, analistas e participantes do mercado têm discutido ativamente sobre quanto esta

Chin Zhao 19:00 2023-03-23 UTC+2

O BCE se mantém firme em sua posição.

O euro subiu com os participantes do mercado satisfeitos com a decisão da taxa de juros do Fed ontem e com as declarações feitas pelos funcionários do BCE. Este último

Jakub Novak 15:16 2023-03-23 UTC+2

O dólar australiano encontrou seu lugar no Forex.

Quanto mais forte o sistema, mais oportunidades o banco central tem de aumentar as taxas. Quanto mais forte for sua moeda. Nesse sentido, o dólar australiano parece atraente. Os bancos

Marek Petkovich 13:53 2023-03-23 UTC+2

O que o Banco da Inglaterra deve fazer agora?

O mercado tem visto muitas notícias nas últimas duas semanas que podem ser caracterizadas como "algo inesperado". No entanto, verificou-se que isto não é tudo, especialmente porque até quatro bancos

Chin Zhao 20:59 2023-03-22 UTC+2

USD/CAD cai.

O dólar canadense enfraqueceu em relação ao seu homólogo dos EUA nesta terça-feira, com os dados da inflação doméstica apoiando a recente decisão do Banco do Canadá de suspender

Irina Yanina 13:52 2023-03-22 UTC+2

XAU/USD: Após testar 2.000,00, qual é o próximo passo?

O foco absoluto da atenção dos investidores hoje é a reunião do Fed e a publicação (às 18:00 GMT) de sua decisão sobre a taxa de juros. O nível

Jurij Tolin 13:46 2023-03-22 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.