empty
 
 

Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD: plan for the European session on August 10. COT reports. The pound is locked in the channel and is waiting for US statistics
time 10.08.2022 08:49 AM
time Relevance up to, 11.08.2022 08:28 AM

Several excellent market entry signals were formed yesterday. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and see what happened. I paid attention to the 1.2096 level in my morning forecast and advised making decisions from it. Pound bulls managed to settle above 1.2096, and the reverse test of this range from top to bottom resulted in creating a signal to open long positions. As a result, the pair rose by more than 30 points and hit the daily high. A false breakout at 1.2127 in the afternoon resulted in a sell signal for the pound, resulting in a drop of over 40 points.

This image is no longer relevant

When to go long on GBP/USD:

The pound remains within the horizontal channel formed at the beginning of this week and is likely to come out of it only after today's US inflation data is released, which many traders will rely on. If inflation continues to rise, the demand for the dollar will certainly increase, and we will see the pair move down. If inflation shows the first decline in such a long time, then most likely the pound will strengthen its position and the bulls will have to fight for the upper boundary of the horizontal channel. If the pair goes down in the first half of the day, the best scenario for buying will be a false breakout near the lower border of the horizontal channel and the nearest support at 1.2065, formed at the beginning of this week. In this case, you can count on a new GBP/USD upsurge to 1.2102, getting above which you can talk about updating 1.2134. A breakthrough of this range will turn the market over and will witness the formation of a new upward trend with an update of a more distant target at 1.2166, where I recommend taking profits.

If GBP/USD falls and there are no bulls at 1.2065, the pressure on the pound will increase again, which will return the advantage to the bears who have been holding the market under their control since the beginning of this month. In this case, I recommend postponing long positions to 1.2037 - an intermediate support formed on the basis of last Friday. I advise you to buy there only on a false breakout. You can open long positions on GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.2005, or even lower - in the area of 1.1964, counting on correcting 30-35 points within the day.

When to go short on GBP/USD:

Bears will wait for the US inflation report and act based on it. Of course, an attempt to break through 1.2065 may be made in the first half of the day, but it is unlikely that we will see a serious fall of the pair below this level. The best option would be short positions on the pound's growth from the middle of the horizontal channel at 1.2102. Forming a false breakout there will provide a good entry point with the goal of moving to the nearest support at 1.2065. Given that there is no important data for the UK today, it is unlikely that it will be possible to break below this range without problems. Only a breakthrough and reverse test from below 1.2065 will provide an entry point for selling with a fall to 1.2037, and the area of 1.2005 will be a further target, where I recommend taking profits. We will be able to achieve a renewal of monthly lows around 1.1964 only with another spurt in inflationary pressure in the US in the second half of the day.

In case GBP/USD grows and there are no bears at 1.2102, bulls will have an excellent chance of returning to 1.2134, which will make life difficult for the pound bears. Only a false breakout around 1.2134 would provide an entry point to short positions in anticipation of a downward movement. If traders are not active there as well, a surge up to the high of 1.2166 may occur. There, I advise you to sell GBP/USD immediately for a rebound, based on a rebound of the pair down by 30-35 points within the day.

This image is no longer relevant

COT report:

According to the Commitment of Traders (COT) report from August 2, the number of both short and long positions declined. However, the number of long positions showed a more significant drop, reflecting traders' concern about the current economic situation in the UK and Bank of England's aggressive policy. Last week, the regulator raised the benchmark rate by 0.5 basis points. This was the sharpest rise in the last 27 years. It is obvious that the central bank is ready to affect the economic growth pace, which is rapidly dropping, to cope with the record high inflation. By October of this year, inflation may reach 13.0%, according to official forecasts. Even under the current conditions, traders of the pound sterling should not lose hope since the currency is greatly oversold against the US dollar. If in the near future, the US inflation data surprises investors, the pound/dollar pair may resume rising. The COT report unveiled that the number of long non-commercial positions decreased by 5,301 to 29,305, while the number of short non-commercial positions slid by 2,882 to 85,714, which led to an increase in the negative value of the non-commercial net position to the level of -56,409 from -53,990. The weekly closing price rose to 1.2180 against 1.2043.

This image is no longer relevant

I recommend to read:

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out in the area of 30 and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the sideways nature of the market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

In case of growth, the area of 1.2102 will act as resistance. If the pair goes down, the lower border of the indicator around 1.2055 will act as support.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
Miroslaw Bawulski,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2022
Benefit from analysts’ recommendations right now
Top up trading account
Open trading account

InstaForex analytical reviews will make you fully aware of market trends! Being an InstaForex client, you are provided with a large number of free services for efficient trading.

  • Trade Wise, Win Device
    Abasteça a sua conta com pelo menos $500, inscreva-se no concurso e tenha a chance de ganhar dispositivos móveis.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO
  • Ferrari da InstaForex
    Faça um depósito em sua conta de pelo menos $1.000
    participe do concurso e ganhe Ferrari
    F8 Tributo
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO
  • Chancy Deposit
    Faça um depósito de $3.000 em sua conta e ganhe $1.000
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO
  • Bônus de 100%
    Sua oportunidade única de receber um bônus de 100% em seu depósito
    RECEBA O BÔNUS
  • Bônus de 55%
    Solicite um bônus de 55% em cada depósito
    RECEBA O BÔNUS
  • Bônus de 30%
    Receba um bônus de 30% toda vez que você fizer um depósito em sua conta
    RECEBA O BÔNUS

Recommended Stories

Plano de negociação para o EUR/USD em 02 de dezembro de 2022.

O EUR/USD subiu na sexta-feira para os máximos intradiários de 1.0540-45, quase atingindo os alvos projetados como discutido anteriormente. O par de moeda única é visto como sendo negociado próximo

Oscar Ton 14:25 2022-12-02 UTC+2

Plano de negociação do índice do dólar americano em 02 de dezembro de 2022.

O índice do dólar americano (DXY) caiu através dos 104,02 mínimos intradiários nesta sexta-feira, atingindo nossa meta projetada em 104,30 mais cedo. O índice recuou desde então e é negociado

Oscar Ton 14:18 2022-12-02 UTC+2

Plano de negociação EUR/USD para a sessão norte-americana de 1º de dezembro de 2022. Visão geral das negociações da manhã. O EUR cai sobre os dados fracos da zona do euro, mas os touros permanecem fortes.

Em minha revisão feita pela manhã, mencionei o nível de 1.0421 e recomendei a entrada no mercado a partir daí. Vamos ver o que aconteceu no gráfico de 5 minutos

Miroslaw Bawulski 16:03 2022-12-01 UTC+2

Análise Técnica e Dicas de Negociação do XAU/USD para 1 de dezembro de 2022.

O dólar continuou a enfraquecer na quinta-feira, enquanto os preços dos metais preciosos, por sua vez, continuaram a subir. Na quarta-feira, o XAU/USD quebrou o nível de resistência chave

Jurij Tolin 16:00 2022-12-01 UTC+2

Análise Técnica e Dicas de Negociação para o DXY em 1 de dezembro de 2022.

O nível 105,00 de suporte no gráfico DXY ainda está de pé e resiste a uma quebra, e os economistas dizem que o nível 105,00 deve impedir que o índice

Jurij Tolin 14:27 2022-12-01 UTC+2

Ouro: área de confluência como suporte

O preço do ouro caiu após atingir o máximo de 1.764 mil hoje. O metal começou a cair, pois o dólar americano dominou o mercado de moedas. A recuperação

Ralph Shedler 21:58 2022-11-30 UTC+2

CAD/JPY: a queda parece ter acabado, reversão de alta em jogo.

O par CAD/JPY registrou um forte movimento para cima e agora está sendo negociado a 103,12. Como você pode ver no gráfico 1H, a taxa não conseguiu ficar abaixo

Ralph Shedler 16:43 2022-11-30 UTC+2

Plano de negociação para o EUR/USD em 30 de novembro de 2022.

O par EUR/USD caiu para o mínimo intradiário de 1,0319 durante a sessão inicial asiática nesta quarta-feira antes de encontrar suporte. O par de moeda única é visto negociado acima

Oscar Ton 14:54 2022-11-30 UTC+2

Plano de negociação para o EUR/USD para a sessão norte-americana de 29 de novembro de 2022. Visão geral das negociações da manhã. Negociações do EUR mistas.

Em minha revisão da manhã, mencionei o nível de 1.0377 e recomendei a entrada no mercado a partir daí. Vamos ver o que aconteceu no gráfico de 5 minutos

Miroslaw Bawulski 16:33 2022-11-29 UTC+2

Plano de negociação para o EUR/USD em 29 de novembro de 2022.

O par EUR/USD subiu pelo máximo de 1.0496 na segunda-feira, aproximando-se da área de 1.0550-1.0600, antes de encontrar resistência. O par de moeda única é visto negociado próximo a 1.0385

Oscar Ton 15:27 2022-11-29 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.