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21.11.2022 09:19 AM
Markets await the latest Fed protocol, hoping to understand what it will do with interest rates (expect another sideways trend in markets)

The week ended with mixed dynamics, mainly due to increased volatility and uncertainty of future levels of interest rate hikes.

After the US released its latest data on inflation, stocks rallied strongly, while Treasury yields and dollar fell. It seems that the harsh statements of some Fed representatives cooled down the ardor of investors and returned to the markets the increased degrees of uncertainty.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and San Francisco Fed chief Mary Daly actually made it clear with their statements that the latest inflation data may not be an important factor in the central bank's decision to not only end the cycle of rising rates, but also slow its pace. While Daly noted that she expects the discount rate to rise to 5.25%, Bullard agreed that the overall rate level could be between 5% and 7%.

These words show that the stance of some Fed members remain hawkish, indicating that they believe it is too early to see the decline in US inflation as a serious signal for loosening the super-tight monetary course. This raises the possibility that another rate hike of 0.75% may be decided at the December meeting, although markets had hoped that the rate might be raised by as little as 0.50%. This is where the minutes from the bank's last meeting, which will be released this Wednesday, could play the most important role.

If it shows that Daly and Bullard's position prevails, markets will see another wave of sell-offs, followed by the increase of Treasury yields and dollar. Market volatility will also be high, stimulated by uncertainty, which will be the reason of sideways trend. All this will take place during low market volumes caused by the release of the lates Fed minutes and Thanksgiving holiday in the US on November 24. Uncertainty will remain high until the Fed's future rate stance is clarified.

Forecasts for today:

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GBP/USD

The pair is trading at 1.1740-1.1965. It is likely to stay in this range today.

USD/CAD

The pair is rising amid falling crude oil prices and traders waiting for the release of the latest Fed minutes. Quotes are a little above 1.3400, and a consolidation will prompt a local growth to 1.3475.

Pati Gani,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
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