EUR / USD, GBP / USD.
On Friday, investors decided not to risk and close their positions before the three-day weekend. Today is a public holiday in the United States and Canada. The single European currency fell by 95 points despite the increase in German wholesale prices in January by 0.9% against the forecast of 0.2%. In the United Kingdom, January retail sales grew by 0.1% only against expectations of 0.5%. Also, the meeting of Theresa May with Angela Merkel in Germany failed to provide any clarification on the question of Brexit transition period. The British pound lost 68 points. In the US, the construction data came out positively but apparently, investors decided to show data from a new week. The number of new house bookings in January was 1.33 million YoY against the forecast of 1.23 million, while the number of issued permits for construction of new houses increased from 1.30 million to 1.40 million against the negative outlook of 1.29 million. The University of Michigan assessment for February increased from 95.7 to 99.9. The price index for exports in January increased by 0.8%, and import prices increased by 1.0%. The data served as a good basis for profit taking at a better price. Stock index S & P500 closed the day with a significant growth of 0.04%. Expectations for the rate increase in March rose to 82%.
This week, the US Treasury places medium and long-term bonds at $ 107 billion, short-term bonds at 151 billion, in the amount of $ 258 billion. A significant part of the raised funds will go to pay off old issues, and the net attraction will amount to 86.76 billion dollars. So far, this volume is unable to make a significant increase in the dollar's demand, but the trend has already been determined and investors will soon turn to buying US currency. There were rumors in the market that the Fed was concerned about the prospect of overheating economy with a possible consequence of rising inflation. If such rumors are confirmed in the Fed's minutes of meeting last Wednesday, the expectations for a reversal to strengthen the dollar will increase.
Today, the eurozone balance of payments for December will be published, and the balance is expected to decrease from 32.5 billion euros to 30.5 billion. At 6:45 PM London time, Mark Carney speaks at a seminar on leadership and values. Probably, monetary policy will not be affected .
Tomorrow, the lower sentiment in the business circles of the ZEW is the production orders for the month. Correction can go deeper.
We are expecting the euro at 1.2295, and the pound sterling at 1.3840. Basically, the deepening of the correction is not really strong within the framework of daily volatility, on the back of expectations that the euro will rise to 1.2520 / 40, and the British pound to 1.4150.
USD / JPY
Therefore, since the last review of the Japanese yen on February 15, the price has reached the target of 105.50. This morning, the markets were optimistic about the. The question is, will there be enough momentum for the development of the reversal trend? Of course, it's not just clear. The Chinese and American markets are closed today, the Nikkei225 easily adds 1.33%. If this easing is not misleading then, a reversal will take place.
Answering the question about the in inactivity of the Bank of Japan regarding the fall of the yen, Japan's Minister of Finance Taro Aso said on Friday, the yen did not fall instantly with the regulator's intervention was required. It is understood that this message is something that the Central Bank can intervene at a lower level, approximately from the range of 100-101.
The trade balance for January, taking into account seasonal fluctuations, increased from 0.09 trillion yen to 0.37 trillion. The volume of exports increased from 9.3% YoY to 12.2% YoY, while imports dropped from 14.9% to 7.9% YoY. The trade balance excluding seasonal fluctuations was-943 billion yen against the forecast -1.002 billion yen. Summarizing the macro-statistical block of the business confidence index in the February assessment, the indicator fell from 35 to 29.
The main scenario is the possible price, turn up along with the markets, the divergence, and the substantial We are expecting the price in the range of 107.10 / 40. The negative scenario allows "shake" the market to 104.40.
* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.
