EUR / USD

On Tuesday, the euro showed a positive decline of 85 points on seemingly non-strong factors. The trading volume was slightly lower than the volume on Monday, in which the festive thin market shows a great interest of investors to buy dollars. US Economic data came out weaker than expected, but this did not prevent state bonds from adding a little to profitability and, in turn, putting pressure on the euro. The business activity index in the manufacturing sector from Markit's final evaluation for April remained unchanged at 56.5 points. Manufacturing PMI in the ISM Institute's assessment was revised downwards from 59.3 to 57.3 while expecting a less severe decline to 58.4. Construction costs in March fell by 1.7%, with the expected growth of 0.5%. Also, the employment index in the manufacturing sector from the ISM fell from 57.3 to 54.2. The total volume of car sales for April also decreased from 17.48 million to 17.15 million.

Today at 9:00 AM London time, the final estimate of the Manufacturing PMI in the euro area for April shows unchanged forecast at 56.0. Further, we will see the unemployment rate in the euro area for March with the forecast also unchanged at 8.5%. At 12:00 GMT, the GDP of the euro for the first quarter will be published, with the forecast at 0.4% vs. 0.6% in the 4th quarter, which could possibly decrease from 2.7% to 2.5% on an annualized basis.

According to the US, the data on the growth of new jobs in the private sector from ADP in April will be released, showing a forecast of 200 thousand against 241 thousand in March, which is a positive figure despite the official lower indicator. At the same time, the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector is projected at 189,000 on Friday compared with 103,000 earlier.

The Monetary Policy decision of the Federal Reserve will be announced at 21:00. The meeting is considered acceptable, the probability of raising the rate is slightly more than 5%, but investors expect to see even the slightest hint in the accompanying statement to increase the rate of tightening. And even if there is no such hint, the current expectations and the macroeconomic balance will be on the side of the dollar. We are waiting for the euro to fall in the range of 1.1820 / 35 by the end of the week.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.