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10.10.2012 03:23 PM
USD/JPY: Technical Analysis

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Overview:
USD/JPY is going to trade in lower range. The pair is undermined by selling of yen crosses amid higher risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 8.34% to 16.37, S&P fell 0.99% overnight) after the International Monetary Fund warned the global economy risks skidding towards recession and lowered its 2012 and 2013 global growth forecasts. Meanwhile, debt problems of Spain and Greece remained unresolved after second day of European Union finance ministers' meeting in Luxembourg. USD/JPY also weighed by Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers. 
Preference:
Short positions below 78.45 with targets at 78.05 and 77.79 in extension.
Support Levels:
78.15-78.08 band (Tuesday's low - Monday's low)
77.79 (Oct. 1 low)
77.43 (Sept. 28 low). 
Alternative scenario:
Above 78.45 look for further upside with 78.65 and 78.85 as targets.
Resistance Levels:
78.65*** intraday resistance
78.88 (Friday's high)
79.23 (Sept. 19 high)
79.34 (200-day moving average). 
Comment:
As long as 78.45 is resistance, expect a return to 78.05.USD/JPY daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics have turned bearish; inside day range pattern completed Tuesday.  

 

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