27.06.2019 04:28 PM
Wave analysis of EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Overall picture


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The overall wave counting of the EUR/USD pair is not completely unambiguous, but still quite rational and looks convincing. A minimum of May 23 is now considered as the end of the downward section of the trend. However, the main questions are not connected with this, whether we will see a full 5-wave upward section of the trend or it will end with three waves up and a new impulse down? So far, the wave pattern after May 23 also looks quite convincing and implies the further construction of wave 3, which can turn out to be very long, which fits perfectly into the hypothesis of 5 waves up. From my point of view, the only thing that can prevent this is the news background. In June, it was definitely on the side of the euro, but what will happen in July? If the Fed does reduce the key rate, as the markets expect, it will be a weighty argument for the bulls on the euro/dollar instrument. And thanks to such actions of the Fed, the increase in the instrument can be continued. As a confirmation of the further increase, we are waiting for the MACD up signal or a successful attempt to break through the Fibonacci level of 100.0%.


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The GBP/USD pair is expected to complete the downward part of the trend, which starts on March 14. However, an unsuccessful attempt to break the maximum of the expected wave d makes us think about the readiness of the instrument to build a new upward trend segment. If the growth of the euro can prevent a positive news background from the United States, the growth of the pound can prevent a whole group of factors, in addition to economic news from the United States. Here, it is worth remembering the Brexit, which has lasted for three years, as well as the election of a new leader of the Conservative Party instead of the retired Theresa May and, accordingly, the new Prime Minister. It is clear that such serious political changes can affect the foreign economic policy of the UK and, of course, Brexit. Thus, on this topic over time, new information may come, which are contrary to the wave pattern, suggesting an upward trend.

Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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