Hello!
In the parliamentary elections in the UK, the Conservative Party, led by its leader, the incumbent Prime Minister Boris Johnson, won a more than convincing victory. Tories will now have 368 deputies in the House of Commons. Their main rivals, the Labor Party, suffered a real fiasco and won only 191 seats in the British Parliament. After the failure in the parliamentary elections, Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn said he was ready to resign. However, likely, this will not be done immediately.
Now, it would seem that nothing is stopping Boris Johnson from fulfilling his promise and withdrawing the UK from the European Union before January 31. However, I am not inclined to believe that the protracted divorce process will even now be completed without any hindrance. We should not forget about Scotland, which categorically does not want to leave the European Union and is ready to hold its referendum.
The results of the early parliamentary elections in the UK had a significant and very serious impact on the quotes of the British currency across the spectrum of the market.
In this article, we will consider what changes have occurred in the technical picture of the GBP/USD currency pair, and traditionally, we will start with the weekly chart.
Weekly
The victory of the conservatives has provided substantial support to the pound. The pound/dollar pair soared above the psychological and technical level of 1.3500 but could not stay there and rolled back to 1.3330, where it finished trading on December 9-13.
Needless to say, volatility was still there! I believe that the 233 exponential moving average played an important role in the rebound of the quote from 1.3513, which, along with the mark of 1.3500, had a strong resistance.
The current five-day trading session of the pound/dollar began on a positive note and, at the time of writing this article, it moderately strengthened. Now, the pair is again storming the strong technical resistance level of 1.3380, which last week was falsely broken or simply pierced.
In my opinion, the task of the bulls on the pound looks obvious. They need to raise the rate above the previous highs of 1.3513 and 233 EMA with the mandatory closing of trading on December 16-20 above the moving average and the level. Only in this case, it is worth considering more distant goals. At the same time, I don't think it will be so easy. The euphoria from the victory of the conservatives is gradually fading, and the technical area, starting from 1.3380, is historically very strong.
In an alternative downward scenario, I do not rule out a decline towards the Tenkan line of the Ichimoku indicator, which passes near 1.3140.
Daily
On the daily chart, there is still a bearish divergence, the development of which is strengthened by the long upper shadow of the candle for December 13.
To dismiss all questions about the ability to continue to move in the north direction, it is necessary to break through the resistance of sellers at 1.3513 and break the bearish diver. However, first, you need to pass the mark of 1.3380 and gain a foothold above this level with the closing price of several candles.
If this fails and a candlestick analysis model (or models) appears below 1.3380, indicating a decline in the pound, you can try selling the pound. Although, technically, in such situations, the stop loss is taken out for the previous maximum, and this is a lot! Isn't it?
Nevertheless, the long upper shadow of the Friday candle and the appearance of another bearish candle will give grounds for opening short positions with targets at 1.3250 (Tenkan), 1.3200 (technical level) and 1.3150 (Kijun).
And yet, at the moment, the main trading idea is to buy GBP/USD, which can be tried from the current prices (near 1.3380) or after the decline to 1.3325 and 1.3285.
Do not forget that this week, for the "Briton", there will be important events, among which it is worth highlighting data on the UK labor market, as well as the decision of the Bank of England on the interest rate.
Successful and profitable trading!
