Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair.
The EUR/USD currency pair showed a very convincing fall during the last trading day of the past week. Thus, it is not surprising that at the end of Friday and at night trading on Monday, we observed some kind of correction. "Some kind of similarity", because the correction was very weak, and in the last 2-3 hours, the pair shows a strong desire to resume the fall of quotes. If the downward turn is smooth, the MACD indicator will have time to react to it. We have repeatedly noted that the closer to the zero mark the MACD reversal occurs, the more accurate the signal. Also at the disposal of novice traders now has a downward trend line, which recommends trading at this time only for a decrease. Thus, in the current situation, traders are recommended to wait for a new signal to sell in any case. Or fixing the price above the trend line, which will change the trend to an upward one.
No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for August 24 in the European Union and the United States. Thus, novice traders today will have to trade without taking into account reports. On Mondays, it often happens that the activity of market participants falls, and there is very little news. Thus, today you can only track general topics, such as speeches by Donald Trump, negotiations between Democrats and Republicans on a new package of financial support for the US economy, speeches by Steven Mnuchin (US Treasury Secretary) or Jerome Powell (Fed Chairman), news on the escalation of the conflict between Beijing and America. In principle, traders can trade relatively calmly until Wednesday, when a report on orders for durable goods will be released in America, but even this is unlikely to have a strong impact on the movement of the euro/dollar pair. In fact, everything now comes down to the ability or inability of the markets to hold the pair through the 1.1700 level. If you look at a longer-term timeframe, it becomes clear that the price has bounced from this level on top several times. It also acted for a while as the lower border of the side channel. Therefore, traders can count on a fall to this level, but whether the US currency will continue to grow below this level is a big question. The US dollar still does not have enough support from the fundamental background. In America, there is simply nothing optimistic that could cause traders to want to buy the dollar. The coronavirus pandemic has receded slightly, but fewer than 40,000 new cases a day are still not recorded.
On August 24, the following scenarios are possible:
1) Buying a pair at this time is not recommended to consider. Even if the upward trend resumes from the current positions (which is unlikely), signals are needed for new purchases of the euro currency. Technical factors now speak in favor of continuing the growth of the dollar. Thus, to consider the pair's purchases, you need to wait for the formation of a new upward trend, building trend formations and patterns.
2) But we recommend considering sales at this time. At the moment, a correction is taking place, so you need to wait for it to complete and the MACD indicator to turn down. After that, you can open new short positions with the goals of 1.1740 and 1.1700. On Monday, the pair's volatility may be quite low. Therefore, novice traders are recommended to closely monitor the movement of the pair during the day.
What's on the chart:
Price levels of support and resistance – levels that are targets when opening purchases or sales. You can place Take Profit levels near them.
Red lines – channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate which direction it is preferable to trade now.
Up/down arrows – show when you reach or overcome which obstacles you should trade up or down.
MACD indicator (10,20,3) – a histogram and a signal line, the intersection of which is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use it in combination with trend lines (channels, trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp reversal of the price against the previous movement.
Beginners in the Forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
