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30.09.2020 02:33 PM
Pre-election passions in the US heats up, USD rate rises

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The US presidential election is about five weeks away, and the tension is growing every day. According to polls, Democratic candidate Joe Biden's leadership has eased slightly, while the popularity of his Republican rival, Donald Trump, has recently slowed.

Biden retains a small advantage in many swing States, and this may well be enough to win. However, most swing States do not show preferences in either direction, which makes the election results less predictable.

"The stakes are high and the results of the November US election are far from clear," said strategists at Nordea Bank.

According to them, a decisive victory for the Democrats is likely to hit the dollar, as Biden promises to cancel tariffs with China and increase the volume of incentive programs.

Specialists at Deutsche Bank share a similar opinion saying, "The victory of the democratic candidate in November will make the greenback the most vulnerable, as it can lead to increased fiscal stimulus and an increase in the budget deficit in the US. In addition, a Democratic victory could encourage greater global cooperation and tariff waivers, which could also have very negative consequences for the dollar."

However, experts warn that another term of office for Trump will be full of uncertainties.

On Wednesday, the greenback is growing in relation to most of its main competitors, including the euro, regaining the decline of the last two days, as well as the results of the first TV debates between Trump and Biden, which only increased political risks in the United States.

The greenback is growing against most of its main competitors on Wednesday. This played down the decline of the last two days, as well as the results of the first televised US presidential debates which only increased political risks in the US itself.

The EUR/USD pair declined from a local high of 1.1755 to 1.1700 after the current US President Donald Trump said that the election results may be known only in a few months. Adding that it is unlikely to end well.

These comments heightened fears of a delay in election results and lent support to the dollar.

The USD index rose above 94.2 points after two-day losses that followed a two-month high last week.

"Investors have again begun to worry about the controversy surrounding the election results, the delay in publishing the results, and whether Trump will behave peacefully in the event of defeat," AMP Capital said.

The pressure on the euro was also exerted by comments from ECB chief Christine Lagarde, who said that low inflation in the EU creates fundamental problems. This is one of the main reasons why the ECB may consider further policy easing.

Viktor Isakov,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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