GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair were moving from side to side in the last trading day. The quotes fell twice by 120 points, and also rose by the same amount twice. By and large, the British are now just tossing from side to side and there are reasons for this. Yesterday, it became known that the European Union did not coddle the UK for a long time, whose Prime Minister believes that he alone will decide which agreement with the EU should be signed and which agreements with the EU can be canceled or not observed. I have already written about the resonant bill "on the internal market of Great Britain", which violates the provisions of the protocol on the Northern Ireland border. Boris Johnson came up with an excuse for this document, saying that the European Union can arrange a "food blockade". In general, yesterday, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that an official letter was sent to London - a notification that Brussels is starting legal proceedings in relation to Britain's violation of the already existing Brexit agreement. London can respond to this email within one month, however, the process has already started. Ms. von der Leyen also said that any further negotiations with Britain would now be further complicated. Thus, the probability of concluding a free trade agreement has already decreased to almost zero. And the UK faces the real prospect of years of litigation and sanctions from the EU.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair consolidated above the corrective level of 50.0% (1.2867) several times. But since the pair is now "flying" from side to side, it is extremely difficult to predict further growth or decline. The bearish divergence of the CCI indicator allows traders to expect a slight drop in quotes in the direction of the Fibo level of 61.8% (1.2720). However, in the current environment, anything can happen.
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes performed a rebound from the corrective level of 61.8% (1.2709) and a reversal in favor of the British currency with the resumption of the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 76.4% (1.3016). Closing the pair's rate above this level will increase the probability of further growth towards the next level of 100.0% (1.3513).
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair closed under the lower downward trend line, thus, a false breakout of this line followed earlier. The pair returns to a downward trend.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Thursday, the UK released only a report on business activity in the manufacturing sector. However, there is much more important and significant news for the British now.
News calendar for the US and UK:
US - unemployment rate (12:30 GMT).
US - change in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector (12:30 GMT).
US - change in the average hourly wage (12:30 GMT).
There will be no economic reports in the UK on October 2, however, there may be new reports from Brussels or London. All economic news is expected today from America.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report on the pound that was released last Friday turned out to be boring and uninteresting. The "Non-commercial" group of traders closed approximately 2,000 long and short contracts in the reporting week, thus, its mood has not changed much. Other groups have less influence on the market. However, I note the fact that both the "Non-commercial" group and the "Commercial" group now have almost complete equality in the volumes of long and short contracts. Even the total number of currently open contracts for all groups in the market is almost equal. This rarely happens. The last report generally does not allow me to draw any important conclusions about future possible changes.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders:
Today, I do not recommend trading the GBP/USD pair, as its movements are very strong and difficult to predict.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but for current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
