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29.10.202013:28 外汇市场分析评论: Lockdown again in Germany and France

Exchange Rates 29.10.2020 analysis

Repeated lockdown is still introduced in France and Germany. The heads of these countries explain such drastic measures by the larger second wave of coronavirus that has swept Europe. Yesterday, it became clear that the tightening of measures is expected from day to day. By the way, such restrictions already apply in Italy and Spain.

According to news reports, on Wednesday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel was going to meet with the heads of federal states to discuss the closure of all restaurants and bars in her country. As for schools and kindergartens, they were not mentioned. In her televised address, the Chancellor noted that all this is only for the benefit of the German population, among which the ill-fated virus is circulating at lightning speed. German authorities fear that the health system, which is still coping with such a challenge, may collapse in the coming weeks.

Restrictive measures in Germany (closing bars, restaurants, and theaters) are still planned to be introduced from November 2 to 30. It was decided to keep the schools open. The stores will be organized with strict restrictions.

Emmanuel Macron made a similar speech last night, announcing a return to the previous lockdown. Most of France has been under curfew for the past week. New French restrictions that allow people to leave their homes only to buy necessities, seeking medical care, and exercising for no more than one hour a day are due to take effect from Friday. You can only go to work if you can't work remotely. Schools, as in Germany, will remain open. The movement of citizens will be possible only with a special document explaining their stay on the street. At the same time, the police will monitor the movement of people and the availability of this document.

It is worth recognizing that the economic consequences of such a decision will be quite severe in any case. Most likely, radical methods will suspend the economic recovery, which was still observed this summer. It is clear that after the spring lockdown, it is still extremely difficult for the global economy to reach pre-crisis levels, and with such restrictive measures, the risk of a double-dip recession increases many times. Needless to say, it will take years to eliminate the expected consequences.

The announcement of the introduction of additional measures for combating coronavirus has severely hit European equity markets on Wednesday. European stocks hit their lowest level since mid-June on Wednesday. The euro fell against the dollar. The changes also affected oil: on Thursday, its cost has decreased. The dollar is only better off from the new restrictive measures in Europe: at the beginning of European trading on Thursday, it was almost unchanged, maintaining its recent growth.

Andreeva Natalya,
分析专家
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