The vulnerability of the US currency allows bulls of the GBP/USD pair to develop a corrective growth. The pound is approaching the borders of the 38th figure, in the wake of the general weakening of the US dollar. In the future, in the next few days – before the release of US non-farms - this trend is likely to continue. The "echo" of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's last speech does not allow dollar bulls to seize the initiative in the main currency pairs of the "major" group. The GBP/USD pair is no exception here: taking advantage of this opportunity, the bulls are gaining new heights, updating multi-week highs.
However, if we consider the medium - and long-term prospects of the British currency, the situation here looks less transparent. The notorious "Scottish issue" can turn into a heavy anchor for the pound, which will burden the currency for quite a long time. The issue of Scottish independence, or rather, the holding of a corresponding referendum, has appeared on the agenda again.
Let me remind you that in 2014, the Scots refused to leave the UK. This referendum was held two years before another-historic-referendum, in which the majority of residents (albeit with a low margin) of Britain voted for leaving the European Union. The Scots, in turn, spoke unequivocally: almost 70% of the population of the region voted against Brexit. After that, "separatist" sentiments intensified in the region: according to a number of sociologists, in the event of a second independence referendum, Scotland will leave Britain and join the EU in the future.
Anticipating such a scenario, London for a long time did not allow its implementation. The British government referred to the results of the 2014 referendum, stating that Scotland has already spoken on this issue. Commenting on the position of the British government, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly stated that the referendum on the continuation of the UK's membership in the EEC (which then "transformed" into the European Union) was held in 1975, and the referendum that led to Brexit – in 2016. According to the prime minister, in this case we are talking about "the right time interval". Johnson already owns the famous phrase that "representatives of the current generation of Scots have already spoken their word." In this way, he made it clear that in the foreseeable future, the central government will not meet Edinburgh halfway. At the same time, the Scottish National Party, led by First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, is still seeking to hold a second referendum, despite the categorical refusal of London.
And today, supporters of an independent Scotland can celebrate their first political victory. The British government said that a second referendum on Scottish independence could happen if the poll consistently shows that 60% of Scots want a new vote.
There are several versions as to why the UK government has changed its position on this issue. First, the idea of holding a referendum in recent polls was supported by 40% to 42% of Scots. That is why London has set the 60% bar, apparently hoping that this issue will be settled at this stage. Secondly, according to the same polls, the level of support for the independence of the region fluctuates around 50-52%. That is, we are talking about boundary values, and not about an indisputable advantage. Moreover, according to sociologists, the level of separatist sentiments has recently decreased, against the background of a successful vaccination campaign, the weakening of quarantine restrictions and the growth of economic indicators.
According to analysts, Johnson decided to "strike the iron while it's hot", risking to meet Edinburgh on the wave of a certain political euphoria associated with the" victory" over Covid (at least in the context of maximum relaxation of quarantine, restarting the economy and successful vaccination of the population). After all, if Johnson's "bet" plays, London will close this issue for many decades.
However, according to other experts, this game is risky. Here it is necessary to recall how Brexit actually began – with the initiative of the then Prime Minister David Cameron, who similarly wanted to "close the discussion" about the continuation of Britain's membership in the EU. And as a result, it turned out that the prime minister "let the genie out of the bottle". At that time, preliminary opinion polls painted an ambiguous picture, and Cameron himself took a pro-European position, urging the Brits to vote for keeping the country in the ranks of the European Union. By the way, almost immediately after the announcement of the results of the referendum, the head of government left his post.
Today, many analysts warn that the above scenario may be repeated, only now in the Scottish version. Experts do not rule out the possibility that many politically neutral "sleeping" residents of Scotland can mobilize and use the chance that has fallen. After all, the next time it will introduce itself to them (will they?) would be in a few decades. Therefore, the sociological picture may change significantly - when the hypothetical plans for holding a new referendum acquire real features.
The start of the political season is scheduled for September 7, when a meeting of the newly formed regional government of Scotland will take place. And in a few days there will also be a large-scale congress of the Scottish National Party, the central theme of which will again be the referendum. It is obvious that the prospects of political instability will put background pressure on the pound, especially if subsequent polls increase the likelihood of Scotland leaving the UK.
