Analysis of previous deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair traded quite actively on Thursday. It should be remembered that the Federal Reserve summed up the results of the two-day meeting yesterday evening, so an increase in volatility was expected. At the same time, I would like to note that volatility has not grown too much, which indicates a low interest of the markets in all the information provided by the Fed. Novice traders should only know that the Fed has lowered its forecast for GDP for 2021, 9 instead of 7 members of the monetary committee now support an increase in the key rate in 2022, and the Fed may announce the completion of the quantitative stimulus program at the next meeting, that is, in November. In principle, such meeting results are very difficult to interpret in a positive or negative way. Better to say, they are generally neutral, but with a slight hint of increased hawkish mood. Thus, the fact that the US dollar fell against the euro today should not surprise novice traders. The downward trend on the 30-minute timeframe is broken as the price settled above the downward trend line. At the same time, not a single standing signal from the MACD indicator was generated during the day.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The technical picture on the 5-minute timeframe on Thursday was very pleasant. There were few trading signals, all were strong enough, and the movement was trending. It is also worth noting right away that all the macroeconomic reports of the day, which are ticked off in the chart, had practically no effect on the pair's movement. We can only note the report on applications for unemployment benefits (second tick), after which the upward movement resumed. But this may be a coincidence, since the report itself is not the most important one. The first buy signal was formed at the very beginning of the working day. The pair bounced off the level of 1.1704, so the pair should have been bought. In the future, the price tried to return to this level, but never tried to settle below it, so long positions should have been left open. In the US trading session, the pair reached the first target level of 1.1735 and overcame it. And a little later, it reached the next level of 1.1750, from which a rebound had already followed. Thus, the long position should have been closed after the rebound from the 1.1750 level. The profit on the deal was 31 points. At the same time, a short position should have been opened on the same signal. However, the downward movement did not continue below the level of 1.1735, as a rebound followed from it, along which the shorts should have been closed. It was not possible to get profit on this deal. The last buy signal shouldn't have been worked out anymore.
How to trade on Friday:
The EUR/USD pair will try to form an upward trend on the 30-minute timeframe in the near future. Therefore, it is possible to consider buy signals from the MACD indicator, but we remind you that they should be formed as close as possible to the zero level. At the moment, the indicator is far from it. On the 5-minute timeframe, it is recommended to trade from the levels of 1.1704, 1.1735, 1.1750, 1.1775. Take Profit, as before, is set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss - to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 15 points. At the 5M TF, the target can be the nearest level if it is not too close or too far away. If located - then you should act according to the situation. No major events or publications scheduled for Friday in the European Union. On the other hand, another speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will take place in the United States. It is not a fact that he will report anything new to the markets, nevertheless, he might provide important information. Thus, you need to be prepared for a possible strengthening of the movement at this time or a sharp price reversal.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the GBP/USD review.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
