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06.10.202110:18 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 拜登对共和党:别在经济上玩俄罗斯轮盘赌了

Exchange Rates 06.10.2021 analysis

美元作为全球储备货币的地位正受到威胁。在白宫的新闻发布会上,乔·拜登敦促停止在美国经济上玩俄罗斯轮盘赌。

总统澄清说,他指的是美国的潜在违约,这可能会打击美国经济,并威胁到美元作为世界货币的地位。拜登10月4日在美国国会发表讲话时承认,美国存在违约的可能性。根据他的说法,这个问题的解决取决于国会共和党人的行动。乔•拜登(Joe Biden)称共和党在国会造成的障碍"如此鲁莽和危险",敦促他们"停止在美国经济上玩俄罗斯轮盘赌"。

他警告说,当前形势的恶化将威胁到美元作为世界货币的储备货币地位。拜登说,如果不能提高债务上限,将导致美元下跌。这给美元带来了更多挑战,除了违约之外,负面的股市形势和美联储逐步退出刺激计划的行动也威胁着美元。

提醒一下,上周众议院通过了一项法案,将债务上限推迟到2022年12月。然而,参议院共和党人似乎很可能在未来几天内阻止该法案。早些时候,共和党代表承诺尽一切可能阻止这项倡议。他们坚持政府削减开支和其他措施来减少国家债务。

目前的债务上限阻止了美国财政部发行为政府融资所需的新债券。值得注意的是,在2019年8月,它达到了22万亿美元。直到今年7月底,中国经济才开始进一步增长。到目前为止,议员们还没有设法提高国家债务上限。结果,到今年8月,美国债务达到了极限。

经济和政治问题对美元走势产生了负面影响。10月5日,美元在前一天下跌后,正试图走强。美元寻求恢复其防御性资产的地位。周二,欧元兑美元在1.1598附近交易,试图迎头赶上。

Exchange Rates 06.10.2021 analysis

At the start of the week, the US currency slumped markedly, pulling back from the yearly high reached a week earlier. By now, the dollar is trying to recover its losses, firmly strengthening on the back of investors' risk aversion. The greenback managed to strengthen after two failed sessions as large hedge funds were overtaking asset. The reason for this was fears over further US Treasury bond yields, which increased the attractiveness of the USD for investors. The latest weekly positioning data showed hedge funds have increased their dollar holdings against their rivals to the highest levels in two years, despite rising bullish sentiment against the dollar. At the same time, USD long-term interest rates rose to the highest levels recorded since March 2020.

Investors now await US nonfarm payrolls data due on Friday, which is expected to show an addition of 460,000 jobs in September. This will be a reason for the Fed to continue reducing quantitative easing (QE) programmes until the end of 2021. However, experts believe that the central bank will change its plans due to disappointing labour market data.

Amid relatively positive sentiment in global markets, the US currency gained new momentum, rising to its highest level in 2021. In light of this, the major investment banks have revised their USD forecasts. Citigroup currency strategists expect the dollar to gain in value on the back of China's real estate problems, rising US yields, and a gradual global economic recovery.

Larisa Kolesnikova,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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