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Forex Analysis & Reviews: 欧元兑美元:美元受到美联储的控制,而欧元正艰难地维持下去
time 26.11.2021 09:10 AM
time Relevance up to, 29.11.2021 08:07 AM

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过去几天,美元大幅上涨,没有受到金融市场波动的影响,也没有受到美联储关于削减激励和加息的辩论的影响。与此同时,欧元/美元汇率对中的欧元也做出了令人难以置信的努力来维持稳定。

到本周结束时,欧元出现了严重的损失。分析人士表示,该公司损失了大部分头寸。许多人注意到欧元兑美元的过度超卖。美国和欧洲监管机构在策略上的严重分歧也加剧了这种局面。可以回想一下,与美联储不同的是,欧洲央行尚未计划缩减刺激计划和下次加息。这样的状况大大削弱了欧元。这种货币正在尽其所能保持在当前的范围内,但取得了不同的成功。

与此同时,通常由美联储(Fed)控制的美元仍处于领先地位,像圣诞树上的圣诞星一样闪闪发光。席卷市场的金融风暴并没有阻止它保持较高的地位。这得益于美联储措辞的确定性,美联储遵循了自己选择的路线。许多分析师认为,中国监管机构明年将削减刺激措施,并以高于预期的速度加息。

高盛(Goldman Sachs)的外汇策略师相信,从2022年1月起,美国央行将加快结束资产购买计划的速度(达到每月300亿美元)。新年伊始,监管机构将出台新的货币政策。根据高盛的初步预测,美联储将在2022年3月中旬完成其资产购买计划并结束该问题。到今年夏天,监管机构将在明年6月上调关键利率,目前该利率已接近于零。秋季也将充满各种事件:9月份,央行将再次加息。世界银行的经济学家预测,下一次加息将在2022年12月,然后在2023年加息两倍。

这一设想的实施将为美元带来新的机遇。问题在于它是否能够利用它们并征服新的关卡。目前美元的高估是由美国和其他国家之间的汇率差异造成的。目前,专家认为已经发生了不利于美元的变化。在这一问题中,在美国股票市场不断增长和债务市场稳定的背景下,资本大量流入美国是一个特殊的角色。然而,这引发了美国股市和本国货币的超买。分析人士相信,这一趋势的加剧将导致美元大幅下跌。

目前的情况导致欧元/美元对的动态失衡。如果欧洲和美国之间的经济增长和收益率差异达到峰值,12月初可能会趋于稳定。专家认为,欧元/美元组合可能会在下月初让市场大吃一惊。如果向下的压力增加,经典的双将测试水平1,1000。这得益于最近对1.1250点的攻击。周五上午,欧元兑美元在1.1223附近移动,有时会超出当前的范围。

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许多分析师对该货币对的中短期前景持悲观态度。美元的不稳定增长和欧元的困难处境促成了这一局面。后者正面临新一波COVID-19疫情和欧元区下一轮封锁的担忧压力。专家表示,美元的增长几率高于欧元。问题是美元能否充分利用这一优势。

Larisa Kolesnikova,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2023
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