empty
 
 

Forex Analysis & Reviews: US Dollar Index (DXY): Weekly summary and short-term outlook
time 12.08.2022 05:31 PM
time Relevance up to, 13.08.2022 12:00 PM

This image is no longer relevant

Having fallen last Wednesday to an intraweek low of 104.52, also corresponding to the levels of early July, the dollar index (DXY) today is trying to recover and has been growing since the opening of today's trading day. It is worth noting that on Thursday, sellers of the dollar again made an attempt to push it down, and the reason was the publication at 12:30 (GMT) of a block of macro data on the US, which once again alerted investors.

As follows from the report of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the annual producer price index (PPI) in the US in July fell more than expected, to 9.8% from 11.3% in June, which was also below market expectations of 10.4%. The annual core PPI also fell to 7.6% in July from 8.2% a month earlier, in line with market expectations.

Meanwhile, data for Thursday also showed that the number of initial jobless claims last week (through Aug. 6) was 262,000 against the previous (weekly) values of 248,000, 254,000, 261,000, 244,000, 235,000, 231,000, 232,000, 202,000, and 211,000. As we can see, the number of applications, and hence the unemployed, is growing, which indicates a gradual deterioration in the situation on the American labor market and slightly contradicts the positive monthly US Department of Labor report.

Without going into details, we also note that other points of yesterday's weekly report of the Department of Labor also turned out to be worse than market expectations.

On the aforementioned data published on Thursday, the DXY index made a new attempt to break through the local support level of 104.50, dropping to 104.52.

Nevertheless, so far this level is holding, and today DXY is growing, albeit modestly.

As of this writing, DXY futures are trading near 105.20, 20 pips above Thursday's closing price.

This image is no longer relevant

The dollar may receive some support today from the publication (at 14:00 GMT) of the preliminary consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan. This index is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for most of the total economic activity. It also reflects the confidence of American consumers in the economic development of the country. Previous values of the indicator: 51,5, 50,0, 58,4, 65,2, 59,4, 62,8, 67,2 in January 2022. The forecast for August is 52.5. The growth of the indicator will strengthen the USD. Volatility may also be caused by one of the components of this report—the index of long-term inflation expectations. Its growth together with the overall positive consumer confidence index may cause the dollar to strengthen.

In this case, the breakdown of the local resistance level of 106.00 will be the first signal of the resumption of the positive dynamics of the dollar and its DXY index (reflected as CFD #USDX in the MT4 trading terminal).

It's also worth noting that San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said on Thursday that a 50 basis point rate hike in September "makes sense" given the latest economic data, including inflation. In a media interview, she highlighted the possibility of a 75 basis point rate hike at the Fed meeting in September if macro data so requires.

The statements of other Fed officials earlier this week also indicate that they are determined to continue the accelerated cycle of interest rate hikes since it is too early to declare a "victory over inflation," which remains "unacceptably" high.

Jurij Tolin,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2023
EURUSD
Euro vs US Dollar
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Start trade
Start trade

InstaForex分析评论将让您充分了解市场趋势! 作为InstaForex的客户,您将获得大量的免费服务以实现有效的交易。

  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST
  • Chancy Deposit
    Deposit your account with $3,000 and get $10000 more!
    In January we raffle $10000 within the Chancy Deposit campaign!
    Get a chance to win by depositing $3,000 to a trading account. Having fulfilled this condition, you become a campaign participant.
    JOIN CONTEST
  • Trade Wise, Win Device
    Top up your account with at least $500, sign up for the contest, and get a chance to win mobile devices.
    JOIN CONTEST
  • 100% Bonus
    Your unique opportunity to get a 100% bonus on your deposit
    GET BONUS
  • 55% Bonus
    Apply for a 55% bonus on your every deposit
    GET BONUS
  • 30% Bonus
    Receive a 30% bonus every time you top up your account
    GET BONUS

Recommended Stories

ECB rates to peak longer than Fed rates, pushing EURUSD above 1.2

Forex is a place where questions never end. In the first phase of monetary tightening, investors worry about how quickly rates will rise. Then, how high they will grow. Finally

Marek Petkovich 15:10 2023-01-27 UTC+2

Does the US debt ceiling issue pose a threat to the world economy?

Additionally, US President Joe Biden blasted the Republicans, alleging that they want to use the debt ceiling as leverage in economic negotiations, as the markets were getting ready

Jakub Novak 12:11 2023-01-27 UTC+2

The euro has a good chance

According to a survey of analysts, the European Central Bank's decision to raise interest rates by 50 basis points is already final, so the euro has a high probability

Jakub Novak 12:01 2023-01-27 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Overview for January 27, 2023

On Thursday, the GBP/USD currency pair maintained its upward trend. If we consider the daytime, which is the period of greatest activity, the US dollar increased for little more than

Paolo Greco 11:47 2023-01-27 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Overview for January 27, 2023

The EUR/USD currency pair is gradually increasing. This is because nothing has changed over the last day, as we have stated. The present upward trend will not be interrupted even

Paolo Greco 11:35 2023-01-27 UTC+2

Economic growth in the US was strong at the end of 2022

The key takeaway from yesterday's Q4 GDP report was that economic growth in the US was strong at the end of 2022, thanks to the strong labor market and lower

Irina Yanina 11:25 2023-01-27 UTC+2

Soft landing of the US economy could boost markets, but pressure dollar

Mixed economic data from the US had caused a downturn in stock markets, but the situation leveled off later, allowing indices to crawl back up again. The reports indicated that

Pati Gani 10:08 2023-01-27 UTC+2

EUR/USD. U.S. GDP growth was better than expected, but the dollar reacted weakly to the report

The euro-dollar pair reacted erratically to the latest US GDP report. Initially, the price fell to the lower limit of the 1.0850-1.0950 range, then returned to the area

Irina Manzenko 22:52 2023-01-26 UTC+2

EURUSD: Can ECB push EUR higher?

If the market does not go in the direction it is expected to be seen, it is more likely to go in the opposite direction. Will this principle of technical

Marek Petkovich 17:39 2023-01-26 UTC+2

Fresh data on US inflation could determine the path of the Fed

Before the Fed holds its first committee meeting for this year, a report on core PCE will be released, which will definitely have an impact on the decisions the central

Irina Yanina 15:08 2023-01-26 UTC+2
现在无法通话?
提出您的问题,用 在线帮助.