EUR/USD 5M

The EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement for most of the day. Why did it start doing this the night before? At the beginning of the day, the euro already rose by 60 points in just five minutes. Therefore, in the morning it was clear that traders had tuned in for new long positions over the weekend. However, after testing the extreme level of 1.0195, a downward correction began, during which more than half of the success was lost. It should also be noted that Luis de Guindos and Isabelle Schnabel (members of the ECB Monetary Committee) did not report anything extra important on Monday. And there were simply no other important events during the day. Thus, the volatility equal to 150 points was shown almost out of the blue, which few people expected. However, this movement allowed the upward trend to be maintained. The price is now above the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, which allows it to continue rising for some time. Recall that this week there will be several important reports that can change the mood of the market dramatically. The euro is not yet strong enough to talk about a new long-term upward trend.

There was a complete order with yesterday's trading signals. The very first buy signal allowed traders to earn at least 100 points, since the level of 1.0195 was worked out perfectly. Two sell signals were formed near the same level, which also had to be worked out. If the first one was closed by Stop Loss at breakeven, then the second one made it possible for us to earn another 50 points. A short position should have been closed when the price settled above the level of 1.0124 again. The same buy signal could also be worked out, but it did not bring any profit or loss. As a result, the total profit was 150 points.

COT report:

The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports on the euro in the last few months clearly reflect what is happening in the euro/dollar pair. For half of 2022, they showed a blatant bullish mood of commercial players, but at the same time, the euro fell steadily. At this time, the situation is different, but it is NOT in favor of the euro. If earlier the mood was bullish, and the euro was falling, now the mood is bearish and... the euro is also falling. Therefore, for the time being, we do not see any grounds for the euro's growth, because the vast majority of factors remain against it. During the reporting week, the number of long positions for the non-commercial group increased by 3,000, while the number of shorts decreased by 8,300. Accordingly, the net position grew by about 12,000 contracts. This is not very much, but it is still a weakening of the bearish mood among the major players. However, this fact is not of particular importance, since the mood still remains bearish, and the euro remains "at the bottom". At this time, commercial traders still do not believe in the euro. The number of longs is lower than the number of shorts for non-commercial traders by 36,000. Therefore, we can state that not only does the demand for the US dollar remain high, but that the demand for the euro is also quite low. The fact that major players are in no hurry to buy the euro may lead to a new depreciation of this currency. Over the past six months or a year, the euro has not been able to show even a tangible correction.

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EUR/USD 1H

The pair showed at least some kind of upward trend on the hourly timeframe, but it is ready to form. It seems to us that the growth was due to the results of last week's European Central Bank meeting, because there were no other reasons to buy the euro. We highlight the following levels for trading on Tuesday - 0.9877, 1.0019, 1.0072, 1.0124, 1.0195, 1.0269, as well as Senkou Span B (0.9977) and Kijun-sen (1 .0032). Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also secondary support and resistance levels, but no signals are formed near them. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthrough" extreme levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price has gone in the right direction for 15 points. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. The key and in fact the only event of the day on September 13 will be the US inflation report for August. It is on the basis of this report that the Federal Reserve can make a decision on monetary policy next week, so it is very important. And the reaction to it may be appropriate.

Explanations for the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.