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17.03.2023 09:48 AM
Analysis and trading tips for EUR/USD on March 17

Analysis of transactions and tips for trading EUR/USD

When the pair tested 1.0616, the MACD line was just starting to move above zero, which was a good signal to buy. However, the price increase was not as strong as expected, with the pair rising by just 16 pips. In the afternoon, the pair tested 1.0593, and this time the MACD line was moving below zero, signaling traders to sell. The result was a price decrease of about 30 pips.

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The ECB raised rates by 0.5% at once, prompting euro to increase in price at the end of the day. Most likely, it will continue to rally as this morning, the eurozone will release its latest CPI data, which could boost investor confidence that the central bank will not abandon its tough stance on interest rates. However, in the event that the report indicates that inflation has fallen, demand for euro will weaken. The payrolls report will be of little interest.

The US is set to release data on industrial production in the afternoon, followed by a report on consumer expectations and consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. Good numbers are likely to bring back demand for dollar, which could lead to a correction in EUR/USD later in the week.

For long positions:

Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.0678 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0719. Growth is possible, but it will only be in the morning and amid a report over rising inflation in the eurozone. Nevertheless, make sure that when buying, the MACD line is above zero or is starting to rise from it. Euro can also be bought at 1.0645, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0678 and 1.0719.

For short positions:

Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.0645 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0595. Pressure will return at any moment, especially if inflation in the Eurozone suddenly drops. However, when selling, make sure that the MACD line is under zero or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 1.0678, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0645 and 1.0595.

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What's on the chart:

The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.

The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.

MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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