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21.03.2023 09:23 AM
Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 21/03/2023

So, a completely empty macroeconomic calendar became a perfect background for the euro to restore to the values where it was before the reports about the problems at Credit Suisse. Besides the fact that Europe seemed to have managed to buy the beginning of the bank crisis, thanks to the rather quick rescue of Credit Suisse by selling it to Swiss UBS, another factor was the growing confidence of investors that tomorrow the Federal Reserve will go for a 25 bps rate hike. Also, everyone is waiting for statements that tomorrow's hike will prove to be the last before the interest rate-cutting cycle begins. Today the macroeconomic calendar is also quite empty, and all the main ideas have been worked out, so the market is likely to consolidate around the values reached.

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EURUSD continues to trade higher, pushing the quote above 1.0700, a move that indicates a full recovery from the recent slump, as well as bulls' desire to continue rising.

On the four-hour chart, the RSI crossed line 50, signaling a bullish bias in the intraday period.

On the one-hour chart, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards, which corresponds to the direction of the quote in the intraday period. On the daily chart, the MAs are intertwined, signaling a slowing bear cycle and transition to a bullish one.

Outlook

In this situation, keeping the price above 1.0700 may point to a further rise in the volume of long positions in the future. However, the main technical signal of prolonging growth will emerge once the pair reaches last week's high. In this case, there may be a gradual process of recovery relative to the downward cycle in February.

Traders will also consider the bearish scenario. The quote has been moving in the horizontal range of 1.0550/1.0700 for a month already, and has only deviated for a while. Thus, the subsequent movement within the current flat cannot be ruled out.

Based on complex indicator analysis, there is a buy signal for short-term and medium-term trading.

Dean Leo,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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