Analysis of transactions and tips for trading USD/JPY

The test of 149.4, coinciding with the decline of the MACD line from zero, prompted a signal to sell. However, hardly anyone succeeded in entering the market because of the very rapid decline. Another intervention by the central bank around 150 yen per dollar also led to a sharp drop in the pair.

Markets ignored the business activity data in Japan's service sector, as traders bought most of yesterday's decline. This kept the upward trend intact, even in the face of active central bank intervention. Further direction will be influenced by the business activity report for the US by the ISM. Hawkish comments from FOMC members Michelle Bowman and Lael Brainard may also maintain dollar demand, which could lead to another decrease in yen.

For long positions:

Buy when the price hits 149.38 (green line on the chart) and take profit at 150.03. Growth will continue, extending the bullish market trend. This will occur after good US data and hawkish comments from Fed representatives.

When buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or just starts to rise from it. Also consider buying USD/JPY after two consecutive price tests of 149.06, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 149.38 and 150.03.

For short positions:

Sell when the price reaches 149.06 (red line on the chart) and take profit at 148.35. Pressure will return in the event of another intervention by the central bank.

When selling, ensure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Also consider selling USD/JPY after two consecutive price tests of 149.38, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 149.06 and 148.35.

What's on the chart:

Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy USD/JPY

Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell USD/JPY

Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.