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20.03.2025 11:25 AM
GBP/USD:英鎊失去顯著的看漲動能

最近,英鎊相對於美元大幅上漲,這主要歸因於兩個關鍵因素:美國經濟衰退風險下美元的疲弱,以及對美國經濟未來狀況的不確定性。

英鎊的升勢進一步受到貿易緊張局勢及越來越多預期英國央行不會急於降息的支撐,加上對計劃中的基礎設施投資將促進經濟增長的持久希望。

然而,之前的強勁漲勢正隨著美元穩定和投資承諾未實現而逐漸消退。從技術角度看,該貨幣對正在形成經典的反轉形態——上升楔形。無法突破1.3000的強阻力位,以及價格與振盪指標之間明顯的背離,可能會引發該貨幣對的顯著下跌。若跌破1.2960,則可能為此看空情境提供信號。

技術展望與交易想法:

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目前價格位於布林帶中軌之上,並與SMA 5和SMA 14對齊。RSI正逐漸回落,而隨機指數則高於50%水平,但開始下行。MACD顯示出強烈的背離信號,也開始轉向下滑。

若跌破1.2960,可能會引發價格進一步回落至1.2850,甚至更低至1.2800。

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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